An allocation of 5% to 10% to commodities can improve the efficiency of a long-term portfolio, J.P.Morgan finds in a recent study on commodities. The conclusion was based on a case study by the Strategic Investment Advisory Group, of a hypothetical portfolio of USD1bn, 30% invested in bonds, 55% in equities, and 15% in alternative investments (hedge funds, private equity and real estate), using a model which is intended to better appreciate the risk of losses related to market anomalies, which, though rare, occur more frequently than many models provide for. Instead of tracking error, conditional value at risk was used, defined as the real average losses (or gains) in the 500 worst-case scenarios. This result differs depending on the portion of the portfolio which is dedicated to commodities (via the S&P GSCI index) as well as the portion which is chosen to be replaced by these assets. An allocation of 5% to commodities with a corresponding reduction of the exposure to hedge funds would theoretically increase returns by USD20m without altering the risk. If these 5% were transferred from the private equity allocation, the expected returns from the portfolio would be lower than for the initial base portfolio, but the level of risk would be lower. There is a point at which allocation to commodities becomes counterproductive. An allocation of over 15% (and 5% in some cases) cannot result in better results than those initially predicted, due to much higher volatility.

In its periodical column dedicated to the “perfect fund portfolio,” Expansión says that investment professionals on its panel are now recommending liquidating positions in government bonds and increasing exposure to equities from developed markets for the remainder of second quarter (to the detriment of emerging markets). They also recommend increasing allocation to corporate bonds, particularly high yield.Their preferred products are currently: Invesco Euro Corporate Bond fund, JB Absolute Return Bond Fund, M&G Optimal Income, Robeco US Premium, M&G Global Basics and Templeton Global Total Return.

Michael Schütt has been recruited as head of wholesale business at WestLB Mellon Asset Management KAG GmbH (WMAM KAG), in Düsseldorf. He will be in charge of distribution for all of WMAM’s strategies, and all products from BNY Mellon Asset Management, to wholesale clients. With a team of five people, Schütt will report directly to Volker Kurr, CEO of WMAM, which is a 50/50 joint venture of WestLB and BNY Mellon. Schütt was most recently head of sales German banks at Invesco in Frankfurt.

In January-March, net profits at Morgan Stanley fell ot USD968m, from USD1.78bn in first quarter 2010. This is an increase over the USD836m figure recorded for October-December, however.The global wealth management group in first quarter shows net revenues of USD3.44bn, compared with USD3.35bn in the previous quarter, while pre-tax profits comred to USD348m, compared with USD390m and USD278m. Morgan Stanley states that as of 21 March, total client assets came to USD1.7trn, of which USD501bn were in fee-based accounts. Net inflows in first quarter totalled USD11.4bn, and inflows to fee-based accounts totalled USD1.78bn. For asset management, net inflows fell to USD626m in January-March, compared with USD858m in October-December, and USD653m in first quarter 2010; meanwhile, pre-tax profits for the operation totalled USD127m, compared with USD356m in fourth quarter 2010, and USD174m in January-March last year. As of 31 March, assets under management or supervision represented USD284bn, compared with USD262bn one year previously, due both to positive market effects and to net subscriptions, largely to money market funds. Net subscriptions totalled USD1.4trn, compared with net outflows of USD6.8bn in January-March 2010.

«UniCredit informs that, following an in-depth analysis of the benefits of various options open to its Asset Management arm, it has concluded that the best solution is for Pioneer Investments to focus on its organic growth, also in light of the market evolution of the last twelve months».The Italian bank confirmed on Thursday that it was calling off the sale of Pioneer.Three groups wanted to buy the asset management arm of UniCredit : Amundi, Natixis and Resolution. The Italian government also tried to merge it with Eurizon, the asset management business of Sanpaolo Intesa."Pioneer Investments has been growing organically for sometime now - its strong financial performance in 2010 reconfirms this. The business is in much better shape than it was when the review process was launched. Profits and revenues were up 13% from 2009 while Assets under Management grew from EUR176 billion in 2009 to EUR187 billion in 2010. In addition, there was consistent improvement in investment performance across the main ranges with a number of standout strategies», says a press release.The Italian bank adds : «A focused strategy which will further enhance the quality of Pioneer Investments’ product offering while maintaining focus on delivering an outstanding level of client service is being finalised».

Dick Weil, CEO of Janus Capital Group, announced on 21 April that its chief financial officer (CFO), Greg Frost, has resigned, and will be leaving the business around 1 August. The next CFO will be Bruce Koepfgen, who will join Janus at the beginning of June. Koepfgen worked at Allianz Global Investors (AGI) from 2003 to 2009, partly as CEO of Oppenheimer Capital, an affiliate of Allianz, and as chairman of Allianz Global Investors Fund Management. With Weil, he was also a member of the executive board at Allianz Global Investors.

For first quarter 2011, BlackRock on 21 April announced net profits by US-GAAP accounting standards of USD568m, compared with USD657m in October-December (-14%), and USD423m in the corresponding period of last year (+34%).Assets as of the end of March totalled USD3.6484trn, 2% more than at the end of December (USD3.561trn), and 8% more than one year earlier (USD3.3639trn). Of this total, iShares and ETP products represented USD475bn for equities and Usd126.8bn for bonds, compared with USD448.16bn and USD123.1bn three months earlier, and USD388.39bn/USD109.42bn one year previously.BlackRock explains that the increase in assets under management of USD87.5bn during first quarter is due to a net market appreciation of USD100bn, and USD34.7bn for long-term products, which were partially offset by net redemptions of USD24.4bn from money market products, and outflows of USD4.5bn in dividends. Outflows related to IPO or merger-related totalled USD18.4bn.The US asset management firm says that as of 14 April, net subscriptions in the pipeline totalled USD82.4bn, of which USD60.7bn were for long-term products (55% index-based and 45% actively-managed products), USD6.2bn for money markets, and USD15.5bn for portfolios advised.The multi-asset class category also saw an increase in assets to UDS207.98bn as of 31 March, 12% more than as of the end of December, and 34% more than one year previously, while USD6.8bn of the increase of USD22.4bn in first quarter come from net inflows to fiduciary mandates; for defined contributions, net inflows totalled USD16.8bn.The CEO, Larry Fink, also says that in the period under review, BlackRock Solutions won a net 12 mandates.

For the second quarter of the fiscal year ending 30 September, Raymond James Financial has announced net profits of USD80.92m, which represents a decline of 1% compared with the USD81.72m in October-December, and an increase of 45% over the USD55.63m of the corresponding quarter in 2009-2010. For first half (to 31 March), net profits have risen 65%, to USD162.64m. As of the end of March, assets under administration and assets under management both set new records. For assets under administration, the total came to USD275bn, compared with USD262bn three months earlier, and USD242bn one year previously. Assets under management, for their part, totalled USD35.6bn, compared with USD33.4bn as of the end of December, and USD29.3bn as of the end of March 2010. The increase is due both to market effects and to net subscriptions. Asset management contributed USD30.82m to pre-tax profits in the first six months of the fiscal year (which totalled USD256.75m), compared with USD23.3m in the corresponding period of 2009-2010.

Janus Capital on 21 April announced net profits of USD37.9bn in January-March, compared with USD65.9m in the previously quarter, and USD31.3m in the corresponding period of last year. The operating margin totalled 32.1%, compared with 34.7% in October-December, and 27.3% in first quarter 2010.As of 31 March, assets increased to USD173.5bn from USD167.3bn as of the end of December, and USD165.5bn one year previously. The increase in assets under management in first quarter is the result of a positive net market effect of USD6.7bn, partially offset by net redemptions of USD2.7bn for long-term funds, with net outflows of USD3.1bn for equities funds, and net subscriptions of USD0.4bn for bond products.

After USD148.7m in first quarter 2010, distributable profits at Blackstone in January-March 2011 toalled USD196.55m, which represents an increase of 32%. By US-GAAP accounting standards, net profits in the first three months of this year totalled USD42.7bn, compared with a loss of USD121.4m in the corresponding period of last year, both after costs related to the initial public offering and acquisitions.Fee-generating assets as of the end of March totalled USD124.03bn, compared with USD98.07bn one year previously (+26%), while total assets were up year on year by 43%, to USD150bn.The two largest categories within fee-generating assets as of the end of March were private equity (USD35.89bn, +43% in one year) and hedge funds (USD35.85bn, +24%). Real estate and credit respectively stood at USD26.45bn (+11%) and USD25.84bn (+28%).

In March, the British asset management firm Charlemagne Capital launched the Magna New Frontiers Fund (IE00B65LCL41), a UCITS-compliant version of the offshore products Charlemagne Frontiers Fund. The new fund carries a management commission of 1.95% for retail shares (R class, from EUR5,000), and 1.25% for institutional shares (N class, from EUR1m), with a 20% commission on performance exceeding the MSCI Frontier Markets index.The manager, Stefan Böttcher, says that the volume of the fund will be limited to EUR100m, and that the new fund differs from other frontier products in that it aims to invest particularly in countries that are not part of the MSCI emerging markets index, which leaves a universe of over 100 countries of various sizes, such as Argentina and Uruguay in the Americas, most of the African countries, the Middle East, the Baltic and Balkan countries of Europe, and several Asian markets, such as Pakistan, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka.Böttcher says in his management notes that frontier markets have underperformed emerging markets, and that most of these markets, with the notable exception of Sri Lanka, are still below 2008 levels. They are thus not highly correlated to developed countries or to emerging markets, but their lack of development means that a selective approach is necessary. Currently, the manager is avoiding Venezuela and Vietnam, due to political and economic risks, and steering clear of North Africa until the situation there clarifies. The cash allocation currently represents 290% of assets. The preferred countries are Mongolia, Kazakhstan, and Romania.Böttcher’s favourite shares are currently Fondul Proprietates (Romania), Bank of Georgia, Mongolian Mining Corporation, Bulgartabac Holding, Mouwasat (Saudi Arabia), and Tau Capital (Kazakhstan).

L’organisation estime qu’après 0,8 % en 2011, la croissance devrait atteindre 2,3 % en 2012. Mais elle s'alarme du « niveau critique » de la dette

La justice a décidé de modifier unilatéralement les termes de la dette subordonnée de la banque, une décision contestée par certains investisseurs

Depuis lundi, l’euro/dollar a rebondi de 3,5 % à un plus haut depuis novembre 2009 de 1,463

Depuis lundi, l’euro/dollar a rebondi de 3,5 % à un plus haut depuis novembre 2009 de 1,463

Les banques s'attendent à une nouvelle baisse de la demande de crédit hypothécaire au deuxième trimestre, selon l'enquête trimestrielle de la BoE

Le montant de la dette liée à des acquisitions en Europe s’est replié de 3 % depuis le début de l’année, à contre-courant de la tendance mondiale

Le groupe de travail, constitué sous l'égide du département de la Justice, vise à répondre à la montée des prix du carburant à la pompe

La revue Petroleum Intelligence Weekly avance de sources saoudiennes que l’Arabie Saoudite devra maintenir au cours des prochaines années sa production au-delà de neuf millions de barils quotidiens (8,29 millions le mois dernier). Les capacités de production pourraient être renforcées afin de satisfaire une demande en hausse plus prononcée que prévu antérieurement.

La société de gestion a enregistré au premier trimestre une collecte nette de 34,7 milliards de dollars pour ses fonds à long terme. Les actifs sous gestion ont grimpé de 8% sur un an pour atteindre 3.650 milliards de dollars, portés par une reprise des marchés mondiaux. Ces gains «ont montré un solide élan sous-jacent aussi bien en gestion active que passive», estime William Katz, analyste chez Citigroup.

Les deux fonds de capital-investissement ont ouvert des discussions préliminaires en vue de lancer une offre conjointe pour une participation de 1,5 milliard de dollars dans la banque malaise RBH Capital. Abou Dhabi Commercial Bank, qui détient la participation, a mandaté Goldman Sachs et Bank of America-Merrill Lynch afin de diriger l’opération.

Le conseil d’administration de Nyse Euronext a de nouveau rejeté à l’unanimité l’offre de ses concurrents américains Nasdaq OMX et IntercontinentalExchange jugée trop risquée pour privilégier celle moins importante de Deutsche Börse. Le groupe cible a jugé que cette nouvelle offre était «substantiellement la même que celle précédemment rejetée», selon son président Jan-Michiel Hessels.

«UniCredit a conclu que la meilleure solution pour Pioneer Investments était de se concentrer sur la croissance interne», a déclaré la première banque italienne dans un communiqué publié jeudi soir, confirmant une décision rapportée par l’Agefi dans son édition du 11 avril. «La maison est en bien meilleure forme qu’elle ne l'était quand le processus de révision a été lancé», a ajouté UniCredit. Pioneer avait été valorisée 3,5 milliards d’euros par la banque d’affaires Banca Leonardo. UniCredit avait reçu des offres du britannique Resolution et des français Natixis et Amundi, filiale du Crédit Agricole, mais elle les aurait estimées insuffisantes. Elle avait aussi été en discussion avec Intesa Sanpaolo en vue d’un rapprochement entre Pioneer et la filiale gestion de celle-ci, Eurizon. L'échec de cette solution, privilégiée par le gouvernement italien, aurait sonné le glas du projet de cession.

Le climat des affaires en Allemagne s’est légèrement détérioré en avril, conformément aux attentes, selon l'étude mensuelle réalisée par l’institut Ifo. L’indice est ressorti à 110,4, un niveau pratiquement conforme au consensus, qui prévoyait 110,5. Il était de 111,1 (confirmé) au mois de mars. L’indice reste toutefois proche des plus hauts atteints ces derniers mois, alors que le ministère des Finances anticipe pour le premier trimestre un doublement de la croissance par rapport au précédent.

L’Agence France Trésor annonce l’adjudication, le mardi 26 avril, d’un montant global de 7,5 milliards d’euros de bons du Trésor (BTF). Cette opération portera sur 3,5 milliards d’euros de bons à 12 semaines qui arriveront à échéance le 21 juillet, sur 2 milliards d’euros de bons à 27 semaines, à échéance du 03 novembre, et sur 2 milliards d’euros de bons à 49 semaines, à échéance du 5 avril 2012.

Les ventes au détail ont progressé contre toute attente en mars en Grande-Bretagne, soutenues par les produits alimentaires, montrent des statistiques officielles publiées jeudi. Selon l’Office national de la statistique, les ventes au détail ont augmenté de 0,2% sur un mois en volume, contre un recul de 0,9% (révisé de 0,8%) en février.

Dans un communiqué publié le 20 avril, le prestataire allemand de services financiers MLP confirme avoir acquis les 43,4 % restants de Feri Finance pour 50,6 millions d’euros. Initialement, MLP avait acquis 56,6 % de Feri à l’automne 2006.Arnd Thorn, membre du directoire de Feri depuis 2005 et du comité exécutif de MLP depuis 2009, a été nommé vice-président du directoire avec un mandat prorogé de 5 ans. Le mois prochain, il deviendra président du directoire en remplacement de Michael Stammler, qui a manifesté le désir de se retirer de la gestion au jour le jour, mais reste conseiller des dirigeants de Feri.Helmut Knepel, membre du directoire de Feri, prendra sa retraite en septembre mais demeurera président du conseil de surveillance de l’agence de notation Feri Euro Rating.Par ailleurs les mandats des membres du directoire Heinz-Werner Rapp (allocation d’actifs et stratégie d’investissement) et Matthias Klöpper (finances) ont été prolongés de cinq ans et «la quasi-totalité» des associés de Feri ont manifesté leur intention de rester dans l’entreprise.

Maintenant que la cession de la BHF-Bank à LGT a échoué, la Deutsche Bank va avoir beaucoup de travail parce qu’il lui faut restructurer en profondeur sa filiale, selon l’agence Fitch Ratings citée par le Handelsblatt. D’une part, la Deutsche Bank utilise déjà deux marques en banque privée, d’autre part la BHF a aussi d’autres divisions et surtout des structures inefficientes.Cela posé, l’agence de notation estime que la BHF est bien protégée dans le giron de la Deutsche Bank, puisque sa note de risque de défaut (IDR) a été remontée à «A» contre «A-" jusqu'à présent.

Avec le fonds coordonné luxembourgeois HSBC GIF Global Flex Allocation (*), HSBC Global Asset Management (Deutschland) vient de lancer un nouveau fonds autorisé à investir en obligations, en actions et en devises des pays développés et des pays émergents.Le gérant Gaël de la Fouchardière et son équipe peuvent allouer entre 50 % et 100 % de l’encours à des obligations ou à des produits monétaires et vont se focaliser sur des obligations souveraines ou d’entreprises investment grade européennes. Ils peuvent aussi investir en obligations à haut rendement et en obligations de pays émergents.L’allocation aux actions ne peut dépasser 50 %. Cette poche sera dédiée principalement aux titres de sociétés des pays industrialisés, mais le complément peut être trouvé en actions émergentes. (*) LU0558996145

La gestion d’actifs devient de plus en plus stratégique pour Generali, selon Il Sole – 24 Ore. En 2010, ce métier a représenté un bénéfice d’exploitation de 354 millions d’euros, soit 10 % du total, ce qui reste modeste par rapport à Axa et Allianz (20-25 %). Mais Giovanni Perissinotto, CEO de Generali, compte accroître de 25 % par an le bénéfice d’exploitation de la gestion d’actifs dans les prochaines années grâce notamment à l’Asie et à la Russie. En Chine, le groupe italien souhaiterait porter sa participation dans la société de gestion Guotai de 30 % à 50 %. Et il s’apprête à créer une joint venture avec cette même entité à Hong Kong.