Les exportations de Singapour, hors pétrole, ont chuté de 4,5% sur un an en septembre après une hausse de 3,9% en août du fait d’une baisse de la demande dans l’électronique et la pétrochimie. Le consensus établi par Bloomberg projetait pourtant une hausse de 3,5%. Le gouvernement a révisé sa prévision de croissance à la baisse à 5% cette année.

Nicolas Forest, responsable de la stratégie taux chez Dexia AM

Le pays a déjà atteint une bonne partie des objectifs fixés par l'Union et le FMI mais la crise bancaire et le chômage persistent

Après une détente fin septembre, les rendements longs sont repartis à la hausse sur fond de retour de l'appétit pour le risque

L’OCDE estime que le pays, aidé par l’Union et le FMI, a bien redressé ses finances publiques. L’organisation a relevé ses prévisions de croissance pour 2011 à 1,2%. Mais la reprise reste dépendante de l’évolution de la crise souveraine et les banques sont toujours sous perfusion.

Il risque de consolider les gains de ces trois dernières semaines avant de vraisemblablement se réorienter durablement à la hausse

Les européens doivent apporter des réponses convaincantes à la crise dès dimanche prochain

Henri Delessy, économiste à La Banque Postale

Les européens doivent apporter des réponses convaincantes à la crise dès dimanche prochain

La société financière française aurait cédé les 75% de participation qu’elle détient dans sa filiale d’investissement dans des fonds d’investissement dans des PME européennes, Private Equity Select, à David Seligman, le fondateur de la société, ainsi qu'à ses équipes, selon le quotidien qui cite des sources proches du dossier.

Les sociétés et les consommateurs européens pourraient faire face à une hausse des prix de l’électricité pendant au moins vingt ans, selon le journal qui cite un rapport publié par la Commission européenne sur les objectifs en matière d’énergies renouvelables. La facture pour les consommateurs pourraient ainsi s’envoler de plus de 100% d’ici 2050.

Yves Maillot, directeur des investissements et de la gestion actions chez Robeco Gestions

Les investissements étrangers excédant 300 milliards de yuans (34 milliards d’euros) devront recevoir l’approbation du ministère du Commerce

Stéphen Ausseur, stratégiste actions chez Natixis

Alain Krief, responsable de la gestion globale crédit benchmarkée, BNP PAM

Les fonds Ucits ont enregistré au moins d’août des sorties de 20 milliards d’euros, après 14 milliards de retraits en juillet, a indiqué l’Efama, l’association européenne de la gestion. La décollecte est particulièrement impressionnante pour les produits longs : 53 milliards, dont 26 milliards sur les seuls fonds actions. A l’inverse, le monétaire a engrangé 32 milliards. Sur les 8 premiers mois de l’année 2011, la collecte des fonds Ucits n’est plus que de 10,4 milliards. Pour les fonds non-Ucits, la décollecte sur le mois atteint 12,2 milliards, ramenant à 60 milliards les flux d’argent frais entre janvier et août. Au total, sur l’année en cours, en incluant l’effet de marché, les actifs gérés de l’industrie ont fondu de plus de 300 milliards, à 7.625 milliards d’euros.

La hausse des prix dans la zone euro s’est accélérée en septembre, montrent les statistiques publiées vendredi par Eurostat. Le taux d’inflation global a atteint 3 %, contre 2,5% le mois précédent. Il dépasse très largement les attentes du marché. Les analystes tablaient sur une stabilisation à 2,5%. L’inflation reste pour la dixième fois consécutive au-dessus du seuil de 2% visé à moyen terme par la Banque centrale européenne (BCE). Ce qui va compliquer sa tâche alors que la conjoncture économique se dégrade toujours. Les prix hors énergie et produits alimentaires ont augmenté de 0,8% par rapport à août et s’affichent en hausse de 2,0% sur un an, contre 1,7% attendu en moyenne par les économistes interrogés par Reuters.

Les entreprises portugaises dont les bénéfices dépassent 10 millions d’euros devront acquitter à partir de 2012 une taxe supplémentaire de 5% sur leurs profits. Le Premier ministre portugais, Pedro Passos Coelho l’a annoncé ce matin dans le cadre d’un débat sur les mesures à prendre pour respecter le plan de redressement budgétaire du pays. Par ailleurs, les transferts d’argent vers les paradis fiscaux seront taxés à 30% au lieu de 21,5%.

La note «A+» de la Slovaquie pourrait être menacée si la situation politique complique la consolidation des finances publiques et retarde les réformes en cours, déclare une analyste de Standard & Poor’s, citée par un journal slovaque. Le gouvernement d’Iveta Radicova a été contraint à la démission mardi.

L’Europe a besoin d’un mécanisme de surveillance budgétaire plus efficace, qui pourrait être mis en place immédiatement, sans modifier les traités en vigueur, a estimé vendredi Jürgen Stark, membre du Conseil des gouverneurs de la Banque centrale européenne (BCE). Jürgen Stark, dont la démission est attendue d’ici la fin de l’année, propose de créer une nouvelle institution indépendante, qui pourrait être intitulée le «Bureau européen du Budget».

L’Agence France Trésor annonce l’adjudication, le jeudi 20 octobre, d’un montant compris entre 6,5 et 7,5 milliards d’euros de bons du Trésor à intérêts annuels (BTAN). Elle adjugera le même jour entre 1,2 et 1,8 milliard d’euros de titres indexés sur l’inflation française (BTANi ou OATi) et de titres indexées sur l’inflation de la zone euro (OATei). L’opération à taux fixe portera sur les lignes de BTAN 2 % septembre 2013, 3 % juillet 2014, 2% juillet 2015 et 2,50 juillet 2016. L’adjudication de titres indexés portera sur les lignes BTANi 0,45% juillet 2016, et OATei 1,10% juillet 2022 et 1,85% juillet 2027.

In September, the top four ETP issuers all suffered net outflows, totalling USD400m for iShares (BlackRock) and db x-trackers/db ETC (Deutsche Bank), USD1.2bn at Lyxor Asset Management (Société Générale), and USD300m for ETF Securities, according to statistics from BlackRock published on 1 October.However, as of the end of September, iShares had a market share of 33.2%, compared with 33% at the end of August, while db x-trackers stood at 14.7% compared with 15%, and Lyxor was down to 12.6% from 13%.Assets at iShares fell below USD100bn (USD99.8bn, compared with USD110.7bn one month earlier), while assets at db x-trackers/db ETC totalled USD44.3bn, compared with USD50.6bn, and assets at Lyxor contracted to USD37.8bn from USD43.9bn.Since the beginning of the year, iShares shows net subscriptions of USD15.5bn, putting it far ahead of db x-trackers/db ETC, with USD2.6bn, but Lyxor has seen net outflows of EUR6.5bn.Among the asset management firms to have posted significant net inflows in the first nine months of the year are UBS Global Asset Management, with USD5bn (USD10.4bn in assets as of the end of September), Amundi ETF, with USD2.5bn (and USD8.3bn in assets under management), and Source (with USD7.3bn in assets under management). Credit Suisse Asset Management, for its part, took on a net USD2.1bn, and its assets as of 30 September totalled USD15.8bn.

Banque Sarasin & Cie SA on 13 October confirmed in a statement that it will be maintaining its independent private banking strategy. The Basel-based bank was reacting to reports in the US press that Julius Bär was planning to take over Rabobank’s majority stake in Sarasin (see Newsmanagers of 13 October). Sarasin says in a statement that Rabobank will be retaining its majority stake for the time being (68.8% of voting rights), but that it is “leaving all options open.” The Basel-based bank will have no comment either on the names of potential buyers, or on talks which may be underway, the statement adds. In addition to Julius Bär, Raiffeisen Switzerland is also reportedly interested in acquiring Sarasin bank, the TagesAnzeiger reports on 13 October. The co-operative bank, based in Saint Gall, could neither confirm nor deny the reports. According to the TagesAnzeiger, it is possible that Raiffeisen may be planning to take over Rabobank’s majority stake in Sarasin solely in order to obtain optimal conditions in its partnership with Vontobel bank, in which it controls a 12.5% stake.

The European Securities Markets Authority (ESMA) on 13 October published an “opinion” statement on ways to operationalise the UCITS IV directive, which has been in force since 1 July this year, due to the fact that many European member countries have not yet transposed the directive into their national legislation.Independently of initiatives that the European Commission may take to confront these delays in the transposition of the directive, ESMA would like to consider the situation in operational terms, “in order to minimise, and address however possible, the impact on the sector and investors of this transposition deficit,” the Authority says.ESMA says that cross-border mergers which involve a mutual fund domiciled in a European member country which has not yet transposed the directive are not possible via a direct application of the directive, due to the complexity inherent in such an operation.The same goes for “master-feeder” structures, which would not be authorised if one of the two member countries in which the funds are domiciled has not transposed the directive.

The overall credit quality of European businesses has improved since defaults peaked in late 2009, and also since the end of 2010, according to a study published on 13 October by the financial ratings agency Standard & Poor’s (“European Corporate Credit Quality Provides Some Protection Against an Economic Slowdown.”)Since fourth quarter 2010, ratings upgrades have been more common than downgrades. Many businesses need to reduce their debt levels further, but they are generally in a better position than in 2008 in terms of generating cash and liquidity.In the investment category (investment grade), operational performance provides some room to manoeuvre in the context of an economic slowdown. Many businesses have improved their operational free cash flow, extended the maturity of their debt, and increased their liquidity positions.In the speculative category, the rapid growth of the high yield market has made it possible to refinance maturing debt. The record level of high yield issues in first half 2011 shows that these bonds now represent an alternative to bank financing. As of the end of July, total high yield bond issues, at EUR32.8bn, represented 74% of total issues observed in 2010 (EUR44.3bn).Meanwhile, LBO credit risk, which is mostly at small, unrated businesses, is high. The difficulty of renegotiating some clauses or getting access to credit may kick off a wave of defaults in the next few years.

The Whitehall real estate funds from Goldman Sachs and the private equity investor Cerberus on 13 October resold 8.2 million shares in the German residential real estate firm GSW for EUR166m. They took immediate advantage of the end of a six-month lock-up period to sell their shares at EUR20.25 each, where the initial public offering for the firm in April took place at EUR19 per share, Handelsblatt reports. In total, GSW has generated earnings for Whitehall and Cerberus of over EUR500m.

Five months after being found guilty of 14 counts of indictment, Raj Rajaratnam, founder of Galleon, has been sentenced to 11 years in prison, Les Echos reports.The severity of the sentence is a sign of a desire on the part of the US Justice department to crack down on insider trading, and to strengthen oversight of hedge funds.The chief prosecutor on the case, Preet Bharara, an ardent advocate of moral reforms on Wall Street, is thus rewarded for his three years of work on the case. But some observers raise questions about the more favourable treatment that bank heads at the time of the sub-prime crisis received.

The population of high net worth individuals (HNWI) in the Asia-Pacific region increased by 9.7% in 2010, to 3.3 million, for the first time giving the region more HNWI than Europe, and putting the region in second place after North America, according to the 2011 Asia-Pacific Wealth reports, published on 13 October by Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Management and Capgemini. The wealth of HNWI in the region increased by 12.1% last year, to USD10.8trn, compared with USD10.2trn for Europe.The top three countries in the region, Japan, China and Australia, represent 74.4% of the high net worth population, and 68.2% of wealth. Japan remains by far the largest HNWI market in the region, with 52.5% of the HNWI population, and 38.2% of the wealth. China is in second place in the region, and fourth worldwide, with 535,000 high net worth individuals, up 12% year on year.The two preferred asset classes for high net worth clients in the region, excluding Japan, are real estate and equities. The proportion of assets represented by real estate was 27% in 2010, compared with 26% the previous year. Most real estate investments were in residential properties. In China, the proportion of real estate assets going to residential properties was as high as 70%.Equities represented 26% of investments by high net worth clients in 2010, compared with 27% the previous year. Chinese high net worth clients are particularly exposed to equities, with a proportion of 42%, compared with 19% in Japan.In 2012, high net worth clients are expected to increase their exposure to equities and bonds, while also reducing assets in money markets. Exposure to real estate is expected to fall to about 20%, due to the rapid increase in values observed in the past few years on many markets, which suggest that a significant correction may be coming.

On a ten-year horizon, Asian institutional investors see their portfolios as more “global,” in equities as well as bonds, with a larger exposure to bonds and alternative assets. But, in the next two years, these investors are planning to reduce their investments in developed markets, in order to favour “regional” investments, in the form of Asian equities and bonds, as well as emerging markets equities.A survey by Pyramis Global Advisors (Fidelity Investments group) of 95 institutional investors in Japan, South Korea, taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and China (USD1.1trn in total assets) finds that these agents are largely preoccupied by higher-than average volatility of the markets and the search for solutions that are better adapted to increase the performance of their investments. They are also planning to prefer decorrelated and less volatile asset classes in their management. In this context, Asian investors outside Japan are interested in liquid alternative investments (long/short equity, global macro), high yield, emerging markets equities, and currency hedging techniques, while Japanese specialists prefer to increase their investments in bonds and to adopt a liability-driven investment approach, while reducing the percentage of “domestic” investments in their portfolios.The study may be found at the following address: http://www.fidelity.com/inside-fidelity/institutional-investment-manage…

Intech Investment Management, part of Janus, has announced the launch of a suite of absolute-volatility equity strategies, offering institutional investors the potential for both equity-like and above-market returns, at lower volatility than is associated with capitalization-weighted equity indexes. These new strategies, Low Volatility and Managed Volatility, can be benchmarked to the Russell 1000 and MSCI World Indexes. Intech’s Low Volatility strategies seek to generate modest returns in excess of their respective cap-weighted benchmarks, over time, at significantly lower levels of absolute volatility and higher Sharpe Ratios. Intech’s Managed Volatility strategies seek to generate more-aggressive returns in excess of their respective cap-weighted benchmarks, over time, at lower levels of absolute volatility and substantially higher Sharpe Ratios. The main difference between Intech’s suite of absolute-volatility strategies and its other actively managed strategies is that the optimization process of the absolute-volatility strategies attempts to minimize the portfolios’ standard deviation rather than its tracking error. These strategies represent a natural evolution of Intech’s mathematical investment process.