Andreas Utermann, CEO, Allianz Global Investors

Martin Gilbert, co-CEO d’Aberdeen Standard Investments (ASI)

L’analyse de... Florence Pisani, directeur de la recherche économique, Candriam

Myriam Ferran, présidente, CFA Institute, et Edouard Auche, secrétaire général Lyxor Asset Management

En dépit d’un été calme, il s’est investi 12,8 milliards d’euros en immobilier de bureaux francilien de janvier à septembre 2018, indique Immostat. Soit une hausse de 33 % par rapport à la même période de 2017. Sur la base d’un volume de 10 milliards en France au quatrième trimestre, les investissements dans l’Hexagone « devraient dépasser les 25 milliards » pour Knight Frank, voire « s’approcher des 30 milliards », selon CBRE, pour qui l’immobilier de bureaux dans Paris Centre Ouest pourrait atteindre « le record du siècle ».

Outre-Manche, les « Brexiters » ne sont pas de fins diplomates. Manifestement, les nerfs du secrétaire d’Etat britannique aux Affaires étrangères, Jeremy Hunt (photo), le lâchent à l’approche de l’échéance du 29 mars prochain. Il n’a pas trouvé mieux que d’assimiler le comportement de l’Union européenne dans les négociations du Brexit aux agissements de l’Union soviétique des pires heures. Ayant passé une partie de son existence dans le bloc soviétique, Donald Tusk, le président du Conseil européen, a jugé la comparaison insultante. Polonais et libéral, Donald Tusk passe aussi pour être un allié du Royaume-Uni au sein de l’UE. Jeremy Hunt a perdu une occasion de se taire.

Les échanges internationaux de services ne sont pas un problème pour Donald Trump. Et pour cause. Les Etats-Unis exportent plus de 70 milliards de dollars de services chaque mois et en importent de l’ordre de 45 milliards. Heureusement, car la Maison-Blanche aurait dû interdire la retransmission de la Coupe du monde de football. Le poste « propriété intellectuelle » de la balance commerciale a enregistré des importations supplémentaires de 600 millions de dollars en juin et juillet, des charges temporaires pour obtenir les droits de retransmission de la Coupe du monde de football, explique le BEA (Bureau of Economics Analysis).

Flotte. Après plusieurs années maussades, le transport maritime de marchandises se porte bien et la bataille tarifaire sur les échanges commerciaux que se livrent les Etats-Unis et la Chine ne devrait pas avoir de conséquences majeures sur les volumes d’échanges, à en croire les prévisions de la Cnuced. Le trafic maritime s’est accru de 4 % en 2017 et une croissance similaire est attendue pour l’année en cours, indique la Cnuced qui table sur une croissance annuelle moyenne de 3,8 % du transport par mer jusqu’en 2023. Ces prévisions sont susceptibles d’être remises en cause en cas d’escalade protectionniste, souligne l’organisation. La croissance du trafic est tirée par le transport de conteneurs et les vraquiers (vrac sec de matières premières). Les volumes transportés par tanker sont, en revanche, en recul. Le pavillon allemand est le principal transporteur par conteneurs avec une part de marché de 20 %. Les chantiers navals de Chine, du Japon et de la Corée réalisent 90 % de la production mondiale neuve de bateaux. Les chantiers de démolition se situent au Bangladesh, au Pakistan et en Inde.

Déception

La parole à... Laurent Clavel, responsable de la recherche macroéconomique d’Axa IM

GLOBAL INVEST FORUM

The view of... Caroline Le Meaux, head of delegated fund management in the department of pensions and solidarity of the Caisse des dépôts

Ciblée. La société de conseil Mercer (MMC) et le fournisseur de données et de recherche Morningstar se sont alliés pour proposer aux investisseurs une plate-forme digitale de données sur la gestion institutionnelle, des analyses de performances et de la recherche qualitative. Ce rapprochement combinera la recherche ciblée de Mercer (6.000 sociétés de gestion, 32.000 stratégies) avec la recherche indépendante de Morningstar et ses bases de données sur quelque 252.000 fonds ouverts et ETF (exchange-trade funds), plus les comptes gérés et indices. Il permettra d’offrir une vision élargie des coûts et des opportunités avant les décisions d’investissement.

GLOBAL INVEST FORUM

Adjugée, adjugée… disparue. A peine vendue 1 million de livres aux enchères chez Sotheby’s à Londres, la Fille au ballon de Banksy s’est auto-détruite grâce à un mécanisme que le facétieux artiste avait ingénieusement dissimulé dans son cadre. Le « graffeur » de Bristol s’est fait une spécialité de ces canulars qui moquent le snobisme d’un marché de l’art contemporain toujours prompt à s’enflammer pour les fausses valeurs. A ceci près que sa dernière trouvaille, en changeant la nature du tableau et en l’immortalisant, en accroît sans doute le prix, posant la question d’une éventuelle complicité de la maison de vente. En matière d’œuvres devenues performances, Banksy suit les traces de nombreux devanciers, comme Piero Manzoni, dont certaines des boîtes « produites » en 1961 laissent aujourd’hui échapper leur contenu.

La gestion d’actifs ne vaut plus rien. L’américain Fidelity l’a clamé à la face du monde en lançant cet été des fonds indiciels cotés totalement gratuits pour contrer les géants des ETF aux Etats-Unis. Pourtant, ce grand nom de la gestion fondamentale n’annonce pas la fin du métier. Tout au plus celle d’un âge d’or qui voyait une industrie dégager de trop confortables marges sans toujours fournir à ses clients des performances d’égale ampleur (lire le Dossier, page 20).

L'économie américaine devrait croître de 4,2% en rythme annualisé au troisième trimestre 2018, au vu des derniers indicateurs sur les prix à la production et les stocks des grossistes du mois d’août, montrait hier le modèle de prévision GDPNow de la Réserve fédérale d’Atlanta. Cette estimation se compare à une précédente projection de 4,1%, en date du 5 octobre.

Chaque jeudi, L’Agefi livre ses indicateurs clés de crédit pour suivre l'évolution des marchés.

Un nombre record d’entreprises ont été visées jusqu’ici cette année par des fonds activistes, qui parviennent de plus en plus souvent à obtenir des sièges dans les conseils d’administration, selon une étude trimestrielle mondiale de la banque Lazard. Les investisseurs activistes ont ciblé 174 entreprises au cours des trois premiers trimestres de 2018, contre 169 pour 2017. Sur les neuf premiers mois de l’année, les nouvelles positions prises par les fonds activistes sont en augmentation de 26% par rapport à la même période de 2017, et ont nécessité le déploiement de 53,8 milliards de dollars, un niveau en phase avec ceux de l’an dernier. Le hedge fund Elliott, le plus actif, représente quelque 10% de l’activité des trois premiers trimestres, avec 19 campagnes lancées. L'étude reflète aussi un engagement croissant des gestionnaires d’actifs traditionnels : de plus en plus d’institutionnels plaident eux-mêmes pour un changement stratégique.

The Swedish pension fund AP1 has teamed up with Arabesque S-Ray to develop a sustainability score assessing the compliance of companies with Human Rights. The unique ratings system will quantify the performance of companies based on the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights (UNGP Score). AP1 is one of five public pension funds in Sweden. It has about SEK338bn in assets under management in a portfolio of equities, bonds, and alternative investments. p { margin-bottom: 0.1in; line-height: 115%; background: transparent none repeat scroll 0% 0%; }

NN Group has further strengthened its responsible investment policy. Together with its asset manager NN Investment Partners (NN IP), NN Group has made the decision to place investment restrictions on companies involved in oil sands. In addition to NN’s own assets, these restrictions will apply to all funds managed on behalf of customers. Oil sands, also known as tar sands or crude bitumen, is a form of heavy oil found in sand and rock. Oil sands development poses environmental and social challenges. This is because the greenhouse gas emissions associated with producing fuels from oil sands are higher than conventional crude oil. Furthermore, the production of oil sands and its transport via pipelines generates significant human rights concerns, and is a serious cause of local environmental pollution. Dailah Nihot, member of the NN Group Management Board: ‘Climate change presents a risk to our investments, but can also provide opportunities if business models are timely adjusted. Although our preferred approach is to engage with companies to support them in the transition to a low-carbon economy, we also want to direct our efforts to those sectors where we believe that our engagement can be most effective. If global warming is to be kept below 2 degrees in line with the Paris Agreement, we believe oil sands should not be developed. After evaluating the oil sands sector, we concluded exclusion sends an important signal in support of the quest for alternatives.’ The policy applies investment restrictions on companies whose business models are dependent on the extraction of oil sands. This is defined as a share of oil sands higher than 30% of the total oil and gas average production in barrels of oil equivalent per day. Companies with less than 30% share of oil sands will be monitored, and evaluated in two years’ time. Furthermore, pipeline operators are also restricted when involved in oil sands transportation projects that are in dispute, and when engagement is not expected to achieve the desired results. The restricted companies have been placed on its publicly available Exclusion List. This means that NN will divest the equity and fixed income holdings that are held within mutual funds managed by NN IP. With regard to NN IP’s client assets that are managed in a discretionary way, NN will encourage its customers to follow its decision. The restrictions also apply to NN’s proprietary assets, which are currently not exposed.

Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management has announced the appointment of Kris Deblander as director of equity and corporate debt management. He had previously been deputy director of the two departments, and reports to Philippe Uzan, director of management. Deblander, who joined EdRAM in November 2008 as head of convertible bonds, also becomes principal manager of the Edmond de Rothschild Fund Income Europe fund, whose management team he joined in 2017. Meanwhile, Marc Halperin is promoted to co-head of European equity management, alongside Philippe Lecoq, to offset the recent departure of Pierre Nebout. Halperin also becomes principal manager of the Edmond de Rothschild Tricolore Rendement fund, also managed by François Breton and Ariane Hayate. Halperin had previously been European equity analyst and manager, since his arrival at EdRAM (France) in July 2009, with responsibility for the EdR Fund Equity Euro Core and Euro Sustainable Growth funds. Jacques-Aurélien Marcireau is appointed as co-head of international equities, alongside Christophe Foliot, in addition to his position as director of equity management, responsible for a multidisciplinary range of areas related to innovation. Marcireau, who has been a manager-analyst in the international equity management team since 2009, remains as principal manager of the Edmond de Rothschild Fund Big Data fund. Halperin and Marcireau report to Deblander. p { margin-bottom: 0.1in; line-height: 115%; background: transparent none repeat scroll 0% 0%; }

The real estate asset management firm AEW, an affiliate of Natixis Investment Managers, on 9 October announced the acquisition of a prime commercial property located in the centre of Rome, for its City Retail fund. The investment, for a total of EUR22m, is the second acquisition in Rome, and the fourth for the fund in Italy, where investment volumes in this market are now over EUR100m. The property, located in Via del Corso, has been purchased from a private vendor. The property was previously occupied by the retailer H&M, and has an area of 875 m² of commercial space, on five floors. The property is currently vacant. The Europe City Retail fund targets quality assets, offering stable revenues, located in prime areas of European capitals and major regional cities. With this latest acquisition in Rome, the portfolio of the fund now includes 12 properties in eight cities, for a total investment amount of about EUR520m. p { margin-bottom: 0.1in; line-height: 115%; background: transparent none repeat scroll 0% 0%; }

Invesco Asset Management (Invesco AM) has recruited Joseline Hobson a head of sales for institutional clients in France. Hobson succeeds Mustapha Bouheraoua, who left the position in June, as reported in NewsManagers (see article of 3 July). Before joining Invesco AM, Hobson headed the sales and distribution teams at DWS since late 2013. Hobson holds a degree in international affairs from HEC and a Bachelor of Arts from Yale University, and has 30 years of experience in the finance industry, including 14 years in asset management. She worked for SEI Investments as head of sales for the multi-management product range for institutional clients in France. From 2006 to 2017, she joined Deutsche Bank Advisors France, where she was responsible for institutional sales in France, and then worked at State Street Global Advisors, as director of institutional sales for France and Spain. p { margin-bottom: 0.1in; line-height: 115%; background: transparent none repeat scroll 0% 0%; }

Unit Trust of India International, which manages the offshore interests of the asset management firm UTI Asset Management Company (UTI AMC), registered two funds in Belgium in late September, NewsManagers has learned. The funds are domiciled in Ireland, in line with UCITS regulations: UTI India Dynamic Equity, a growth fund, targeting Indian equities (assets of usd162.75m as of 31 August 2018), and UTI Indian Fixed Income, investing in public and private bonds from companies/private institutions in India (USD221.38m as of 31 August 2018). The two funds are also registered in France. Assets under management at UTI AMI were near USD53bn as of 31 May 2018. p { margin-bottom: 0.1in; line-height: 115%; background: transparent none repeat scroll 0% 0%; }

Aviva announced yesterday Mark Wilson and the Board have agreed that Mark is stepping down today as Chief Executive Officer of the group. Mark will remain with the group until April 2019 and will assist with the planned and orderly transition.Mark was brought in to deliver the turnaround of Aviva. The Board and Mark believe that given the turnaround has been successfully completed, it is time for new leadership to take the group to the next phase of its development. The search for a successor will commence immediately, with internal and external candidates being considered. The process is expected to be completed within the next four months. During the transition period the Board of Aviva has asked Sir Adrian Montague, currently non-executive Chairman of Aviva, to assume executive responsibilities and lead a Chairman’s Committee of the three executive directors: Andy Briggs (CEO, UK Insurance), Thomas Stoddard (Chief Financial Officer) and Maurice Tulloch (CEO, International Insurance). After the appointment of the new Chief Executive Officer, Sir Adrian Montague will revert to the role of non-executive Chairman of Aviva. There will be no changes in the terms and conditions of any Directors. These interim arrangements are subject to regulatory approval.Aviva will continue to benefit from a strong and committed management team which will deliver the current initiatives, drive the overall performance of the group, and deliver its financial targets. Mark Wilson became Chief Executive Officer of Aviva in January 2013. Under his leadership, Aviva has been reshaped to significantly improve its financial performance and balance sheet strength, said the press release. During the turnaround phase, the group has been streamlined from 28 markets to 14, grown operating profit, and strengthened the balance sheet with a Solvency II surplus of £11bn as at 30 June 2018. The group has focused on areas of competitive strength and invested in new initiatives such as digital.

BT Pension Scheme (BTPS), the largest British pension fund in the private sector, with about GBP50bn in assets, has announced the appointment of Morten Nilsson with immediate effect as CEO of BT Pension Scheme Management Limited (BTPSM). Nilsson will report directly to Paul Spencer, chairman of the board of directors of BTPS, and president of BTPSM. Nilsson has spent most of his career in the financial services sector. He joined the pension fund management industry in 2001, and spent more than 10 years at ATP, the Danish pension fund, where he served in various senior roles. In 2010, he moved to London, where he founded NOW: Pensions, and was the CEO. He left NOW: Pensions in September 2017. p { margin-bottom: 0.1in; line-height: 115%; background: transparent none repeat scroll 0% 0%; }

French equity funds have had some serious bad news. In the one-year period ending on 30 June 2018, 90% of actively-managed French equity funds underperformed the S&P France BMI index, according to a bi-annual study of S&P indices in comparison to active funds by (SPIVA) Europe. Over the long term, the results are not much better: over five- and ten-year periods, the percentage is 74% and 83%, according to the study.In the period under review, active funds investing in French equities earned average asset-weighted returns 5% lower than the S&P France BMI index, and 1.6% lower on an annual basis over 10 years. The average returns weighted by asset indicate the performance for an average investor, and attenuate the influence of smaller funds, a statement says.In other parts of the world, the results are not much more encouraging. 59% of actively-managed pan-European equity funds denominated in euros under-performed the S&P Europe 350 index. “This number increases from 74% to 87% over five- and ten-year horizons,” the study notes.70% of actively-managed US equity funds denominated in euros underperformed the S&P 500 index in the one-year period. This figure increases to 92% and 98% for five- and ten-year periods.The findings are even grimmer for global equity funds, as 82% of these actively-managed funds denominated in euros underperformed the S&P Global 1200 index over the one-year period. The figure increases for five- and 10-year periods to 96% and 99%, respectively.Lastly, 81% of actively-managed emerging market equity funds denominated in euros underperformed the S&P / IFCI index. This figure increases to 99% over a 10-year period.

Mediobanca is launching its first fund in Italy dedicated to private clients investing in illiquid instruments, Bluerating reports. The Mediobanca Private Markets Fund I, designed by the American firm Russell Investments and distributed exclusively by Mediobanca Private Banking from November 2018 until 31 January 2019, will allow private investors access to asset classes traditionally reserved for institutional clients such as private equity, private debt, real assets and venture capital. Russell will be the manager of the fund. p { margin-bottom: 0.1in; line-height: 115%; background: transparent none repeat scroll 0% 0%; }