Selon la Banque de France, le produit intérieur brut pourrait reculer de 0,1% au troisième trimestre

Selon la Banque de France, le produit intérieur brut pourrait reculer de 0,1% au troisième trimestre

Dans son rapport trimestriel sur l’inflation publié hier, la Banque d’Angleterre anticipe un retour de la croissance à 2% dans les deux prochaines années. Il s’agit de la prévision la plus basse depuis la création de son Comité de politique monétaire en 1997.

La BoE anticipe un retour de la croissance à seulement 2% en 2013-2014. Il s'agit de la prévision la plus basse depuis la création du Comité en 1997

L'activité hexagonale devrait enregistrer une baisse de 0,1% au troisième trimestre, estime la Banque de France en première estimation dans son enquête de conjoncture de juillet publiée ce mercredi. De son côté le gouvernement a annoncé la poursuite du creusement du déficit commercial en juin.

Les commandes de l’industrie allemande ont chuté de 1,7% en juin sur un mois, contre un recul de 1% attendu par le consensus. «Les commandes de l’industrie ne révèlent actuellement aucune tendance claire», a précisé le ministère. Une chute des commandes industrielles principalement en provenance de la zone euro, en baisse de 4,9%.

La collecte outre-Rhin des fonds d’investissement s’est élevée en juin dernier à 12,8 milliards d’euros, dont 11 milliards d’euros dans les fonds dédiés, selon les statistiques communiquées par l’association allemande des gestionnaires de fonds (BVI). Du côté des fonds ouverts, la collecte s’est inscrite à 1,7 milliard d’euros.Sur les six premiers mois de l’année, les investisseurs institutionnels ont consacré 30,9 milliards d’euros aux fonds dédiés, soit une augmentation d’un tiers par rapport au premier semestre de l’année record 2010. L’essentiel de ces investissements s’est porté sur des fonds de valeurs mobilières pour un montant de 29,5 milliards d’euros, le reliquat de 1,4 milliard d’euros étant investi dans des fonds immobiliers fermés. Depuis le début de l’année, la collecte des fonds ouverts s’est inscrite à 5,77 milliards d’euros. Les fonds obligataires ont terminé le semestre sur une collecte de 11,2 milliards d’euros, alors que les fonds d’actions ont subi des rachats pour un montant de 5,2 milliards d’euros. Les fonds immobiliers ont collecté 2 milliards d’euros et les fonds diversifiés 1,5 milliard d’euros.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management vient de recruter à Francfort Peter Pergovacz dans son équipe « Global Liquidity », dédiée aux fonds monétaires, en tant que responsable des ventes en Allemagne et en Autriche.L’intéressé vient de J.P. Morgan Worldwide Securities Services où il était relationship manager pour les clients des compagnies d’assurances, des entreprises, des fonds de pension et des fondations en Allemagne, en Autriche et en Suisse.Dans ses nouvelles fonctions, Peter Pergovacz est placé sous la responsabilité de Sven Lorenz, responsable de « Global Liquidity » en Europe centrale et orientale. Il intègre l’équipe dédiée aux fonds monétaires couvrant l’Europe, le Moyen-Orient et l’Afrique et porte les effectifs de l’équipe commerciale à 35 personnes dans le monde.

Carmignac Gestion vient d’enregistrer auprès de la Commission espagnole des opérations de bourse, la CNMV, Carmignac Court Terme, un fonds monétaire à court terme qui investit principalement dans de la dette libellée en euro, rapporte Funds People.Les actifs de ce fonds, géré par Rose Ouahba, s'élèvent à un peu plus de 500 millions du’euros. Au premier semestre 2012, le fonds a dégagé un rendement de 0,33%.

Threadneedle Investments s’est vu déléguer la gestion de plus de 800 millions de dollars en actions mondiales et émergentes par Stanlib, une société de gestion sud-africaine gérant plus de 44 milliards de dollars.Cet accord va permettre aux investisseurs basés en Afrique d’accéder au savoir-faire de Threadneedle, sachant que Stanlib est présente dans 8 pays africains.La société sud-africaine, qui a une clientèle institutionnelle et «retail», a l’habitude de s’associer avec des sociétés de gestion étrangères. Elle a choisi Threadneedle pour ses portefeuilles monde et marchés émergents à l’issue d’une procédure de sélection de 18 mois, précise un communiqué de presse.

La société issue de la fusion entre Old Mutual Asset Managers UK (OMAM (UK)) et Skandia Investment Group (SIG) réorganise son équipe commerciale, selon une lettre adressée aux clients.Dans ce mail, Warren Tonkinson, le nouveau responsable mondial de la distribution, annonce que Simon Smith devient responsable de la distribution pour le Royaume-Uni. Précédemment, il était responsable global du marketing. L’autre interlocuteur sur le Royaume-Uni est Steven Brown, responsable de la distribution auprès des conseillers.D’autres changements seront annoncés dans les semaines qui viennent.La fusion entre OMAM (UK) et SIG a été annoncée fin avril. Dirigée par Julien Ide, la nouvelle entité n’a toujours pas de nom officiel. Ce rapprochement avait conduit à la fermeture du bureau français.

La banque britannique Standard Chartered, actuellement en délicatesse avec les autorités financières, fait partie des principales lignes de plus d’une soixantaine de fonds britanniques, rapporte Money Marketing.Selon FE Analytics, Standard Chartered fait partie des dix principales lignes en portefeuille pour 64 fonds entrant dans la classification IMA, l’association britannique des gestionnaires d’actifs. L'équipe dédiée aux actions asiatiques chez Aberdeen détient du «StanChart» dans plusieurs de ses fonds, notamment 3,1% à fin juin dans le fonds Aberdeen Global Asia Pacific Equity dont les actifs sous gestion s'élèvent à 4,5 milliards de livres ou encore 3,6% dans le fonds Aberdeen Asia Pacific (2,1 milliards de livres d’actifs). Au total, Aberdeen Asset Management détiendrait quelque 6% des actions Standard Chartered.

La société de gestion suédoise East Capital vient de lancer le East Capital Russia Domestic Growth Fund, un fonds investi dans 10 à 20 sociétés cotées capitalisant un minimum de 500 millions de dollars et réalisant au moins la moitié de leur chiffre d’affaires en Russie.Le portefeuille sera placé dans des titres sous-évalués et ayant un potentiel de rebond, tous secteurs confondus. East Capital Explorer AB, une société suédoise cotée investie principalement dans les fonds alternatifs d’East Capital, s’est engagée à investir 15 millions d’euros lors du premier tour de table du nouveau fonds qui est domicilié au Luxembourg et ouvert aux investisseurs institutionnels et qualifiés.

La société suédoise de gestion alternative Brummer & Partners va lancer en octobre un hedge fund qui combinera actions et obligations d’entreprises et gouvernementales. Appelé Carve - pour Cross Asset Relative Value Equity focus -, il sera géré par Per Josefsson, Peter Thelin et Bo Börtemark, qui étaient précédemment gérants de Zenit, un fonds de la société sœur de Brummer. Stefan Engstrand de Zenit et Christian Fredriksson de Goldman Sachs sont aussi associés au projet. Une personne supplémentaire venant d’une société spécialisée dans le crédit sera recrutée.Basé sur un univers mondial, Carve associera des stratégies long/short sur les actions et de l’arbitrage sur la structure du capital. Le fonds sera lancé sous réserve de l’obtention des autorisations nécessaires de l’autorité de régulation suédoise.

Thames River va fermer un fonds de hedge funds de 54 millions de livres et rembourser les porteurs, selon Investment Week. La société de gestion explique que les souscripteurs du Multi Hedge Fund ont demandé la convocation d’une assemblée générale le 11 septembre pour liquider le produit géré par Ken Kinsey-Quick après une année de sous-performance en 2011. Le fonds, principalement investi en fonds long/short actions, avait été lancé en février 2004.

Kerry Drew, en charge des relations avec les consultants chez Legal & General Investment Management, quitte la société pour rejoindre Vanguard où il occupera un poste similaire, rapporte Financial News.

According to local banking sector sources, two ICBC affiliates, ICBC Asia and ICBC International, are offering 3-year corporate bonds denominated in Chinese yuan (Dim Sum), Agefi reports. The size of the issues is said not to exceed CNY1bn (EUR127m), and the returns on offer are said to be 3.15%. Five banks, including HSBC and Goldman Sachs, are organising the operation.

Russell Investments announced on Monday that it is conducting a strategic review of its direct U.S. ETF business in an effort to focus more exclusively on its core competency – delivering multi-asset solutions to institutional investors, financial advisors and individuals globally.During the strategic review, the investment management team responsible for the firm’s U.S. ETFs will remain in place, and the products will continue to pursue their respective investment objectives. However, Russell is scaling back its dedicated U.S. ETF team, primarily based out of the firm’s San Francisco and New York City offices, according to a press release. Russell remains the underlying Index provider for many ETFs around the world, with more than USD80 billion in assets under management, and will continue its partnership with each of these ETF sponsors.The firm will announce additional details once the strategic review is completed.

Carmignac Gestion has registered the Carmignac Court Terme, a short-term money market fund which invests primarily in debts denominated in euros, with the CNMV, Funds People reports. Assets in the fund, managed by Rose Ouahba, total slightly over EUR500m. In first half 2012, the fund earned returns of 0.33%.

East Capital launches a new alternative fund, the East Capital Russia Domestic Growth Fund. The fund is expected to have its first closing around end of August.The aim of East Capital Russia Domestic Growth Fund is to create a concentrated portfolio of between 10 and 20 different companies which generate at least half of the revenue in Russia. They will be listed companies with a market capitalization of above USD 500 million.The fund will operate across all sectors and invest in securities that are believed to be undervalued and so have significant performance potential. East Capital Explorer AB, a Swedish listed entity investing mainly in East Capital’s alternative funds, has committed to invest EUR 15 million in the first closing of the fund, which is domiciled in Luxembourg and open to other institutional and qualified investors.

The Swedish alternative management firm Brummer & Partners will in October be launching a hedge fund which will combind equities and bonds from businesses and governments. The fund, known as CARVE, for Cross-Asset Relative Value Equity focus, will be managed by Per Joseffson, Peter Thelin and Bo Börtemark, who had previously been managers of Zenit, a fund from Brummer’s sister company. Stefan Engstrand of Zenit and Christian Frederiksson of Goldman Sachs are also involved in the project. One further person from a credit specialist firm will be recruited. CARVE will be based on a global universe, and will bring together long/short equity and capital structure arbitrage strategies. The fund will be launched once the necessary licenses are received from the Swedish authorities.

ETPs have posted net inflows in July of USD22.6bn, according to statistics from BlackRock. Investors preferred equities for a total of USD21bn, largely via exposure to US equities. US large caps attracted USD6.9bn, while US small caps, which are more sensitive to the economic environment, posted inflows of USD2.3bn. ETPs offering exposure to European equities attracted USD2bn. ETPs dedicated to emerging market equities posted net inflows of USD3.6bn in the month under review, also distributed between global funds (USD1.7bn) and funds exposed to one country in particular (USD1.8bn). Inflows to bond ETPs in July totalled only USD2.4bn, far beyond the levels reach last May (USD10.9bn). Investors seeking returns have preferred high yield bonds for a total of USD2bn, investment-grade corporate bonds (USD1.6bn) and emerging market bonds (USD1.2bn). However, ETPs dedicated to traditional government bonds saw outflows of USD3.7bn. However, bond ETPs overall are in high demand, representing 35% of new inflows in the first seven months of the year.

In second quarter 2012, only 417 funds were created in Europe, a 50% decline compared with the corresponding period of 2011, and 60% down on the peak in second quarter 2008, according to the most recent statistics from Lipper. In the same period, 535 funds were closed, which represents a 9% increase over one year previously, and 340 funds were merged. As of the end of June, the number of funds registered for sale in Europe totalled 31,787, compared with 32,158 as of the end of March. The universe of European funds contracted further in second quarter, following a first quarter in which the fund population had already declined. In the first three years of the year, only 506 funds were created in Europe, while 493 funds were liquidated and 205 were merged. Lipper nonetheless sees some cause for optimism in a decline in the number of funds merged in second quarter (-23%) and the fact that it is the lowest number of mergers in five years.

Inflows to investment funds in Germany in June totalled EUR12.8bn, of which EUR11bn went to dedicated funds, according to statistics from the German association of fund managers (BVI). For open-ended funds, inflows totalled EUR1.7bn. In the first six months of the year, institutional investors placed EUR30.9bn in dedicated funds, an increase of one third compared with the fist half of the record year in 2010. Most of these investments went to securities funds, with a total of EUR29.5bn, while the remaining EUR1.4bn were invested in closed real estate funds. Since the beginning of the year, inflows to open-ended funds totalled EUR5.77bn. Bond funds finished the half with inflows of EUR11.2bn, while equity funds posted outflows totalling EUR5.2bn. Real estate funds, for their part, have posted inflows of EUR2bn, and diversified funds have brought in EUR1.5bn.

The hedge fund manager John Paulson, who finished 2011 with record losses, has seen further losses of 2% in July from the Advantage Plus fund, according to the Bloomberg news agency, which has obtained a copy of the monthly report sent to investors in advance. Since the beginning of the year, the fund would then have lost 18%. The Gold Fund from Paulson, for its part, gained 0.2% in July, and now shows losses of 23% since the beginning of the year. However, merger arbitrage funds, credit and recovery, which represent more than 60% of USD21bn in assets under management by the firm, have gained value since the beginning of the year, Paulson points out in his report.

The Securities and Exchange Commission has scheduled a vote on proposed tougher regulations for the money market fund market for 29 August, the Wall Street Journal reports. The proposals have been rejected by the industry, and by three SEC commissioners. They would require money market funds to allow their net asset value to “float,” rather than remaining set at USD1 per share, or else that funds set money aside in order to protect themselves against losses, while holding back a portion of investors’ money for 30 days when they seek to redeem their investments.

The French government on 7 August published a decree in the Official Journal which establishes a mechanism to tax modifications or cancellations of market orders related to high-frequency trading from 1 August. The decree defines a maximum time period of one half-second to identify high-frequency trades on capital securities, referring to the time between the issuance of an order and its modification or cancellation. “The degree to which this threshold is exceeded increases with the latency time ordinarily separating two events affecting a given share, understood as the duration of time separating a buy or sell order on a share and an instruction either to modify, or to cancel the aforementioned buy or sell order,” the decree explains. It also defines the threshold from which the tax will be levied on cancelled or modified buy or sell orders. Starting from 80% of orders cancelled or modified in a single trading day, the operator will be required to pay the tax on all cancelled or modified orders above that threshold. The decree comes as an addition to a law creating a tax on financial transactions, which came into force on 1 August. This tax, which has been doubled by the new government to 0.2%, applies to trades on shares in companies whose market capitalisation is over EUR1bn, and whose headquarters are in France. According to statistics from the French market regulator, the Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF), high-frequency trading now represents about 50% of orders issues, and nearly 20% of trading volumes in Europe.

Rule no. 648/2012 of the European Parliament, and the ruling of the European Council of 4 July 2012 on over0the0coutner derivative products, central clearing houses and central reference numbers (EMIR) were published in the Official Journal of the European Union on 27 July 2012, and will come into force on 16 August 2012. The French market regulator, the Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF), adds in a statement released on 7 August that the new reguations still need to be supplemented by technical standards, which were the subject of a public consultation by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) held until 5 August, which will be submitted to the European Commission by 30 September 2012 at the latest. For the most part, publication of this consultation will permit for the regulations to come into full force. The AMF draws the attention of the parties concerned to the fact that all legislation will be applicable in France immediately. “The AMF is aware of the changes which these are likely to bring to current practices, and would like to assist actors in carrying out these reforms, which represent a key element in strengthening financial stability and security,” the AMF says. The practical terms of the assistance provided to actors will be described in a subsequent statement, the AMF states, adding that the major consequences of the EMIR regulation, applicable to counterparties, such as the requirement to compensate eligible over-the-counter derivatives, the development of risk management procedures for over-the-counter and uncompensated derivatives, and the requirement that transactions on derivative contracts be declared. The EMIR regulation may be consulted at the following address: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2012:201:000…

HSBC Global Asset Management on 7 August announced the appointment of Heiner Weber to the position of head of institutional distribution for Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA). Weber, who joined HSBC in early 1995, will retain his role as a member of the board of directors at HSBC Global Asset Management (Deutschland) GmbH. In his new role, he will be responsible for business centres dedicated to institutional investors in the EMEA region, including Germany, the UK, France, Austria and Switzerland.

The ongoing European crisis does not appear to be shaking the confidence of investors in other respects. Most investors in European bonds estimate that the euro zone will survive the pressure on it and pull through in its present form, according to the most recent quarterly survey by the financial ratings agency Fitch Ratings. The survey was conducted between 2 July and 2 August, and covered a sample of managers with cumulative assets of USD7.2trn. Only 5% of investors surveyed predict a large-scale dissolution of the euro zone. 9% of investors predict that there will be a series of sovereign defaults in the euro zone, but estimate that these events will not cause the euro zone to be dismantled, while 21% of investors predict that Greece and one or two other countries may leave the European project. Most predict a fiscal union (33%) or a «muddling through» (31%). The findings of the survey are relatively close to those in October last year, in which only 4% of investors predicted that the euro zone would fall apart. This means that despite the severity of the crisis, investors are thinking of the long term, and remain confident in the future of Europe. Fitch shares this point of view, estimating that a dismantlement of the euro zone is unlikely due to the enormous cost, and the engagement of politicians in favour of the Union. But the crisis has revealed the urgency of increased fiscal, financial and political integration.