31/08/2012
“New indices” may underperform originals
A study published by the Edhec-Risk Institute in the Journal of Portfolio Management suggests that the major alternative equity indices are probably superior in terms of long-term perforamnce, but they run the risk of significant relative losses compared with cap size-weighted traditional indices. These “drawdowns” may last for long periods (over two years), and be large in scale (over 13%). These risks are largely due to two causes: More pronounced structural exposure to risk factors which may in some cases negatively influence the performance of indices Any system of weighting, be it qualitative or quantitative, requires a choice of model, and this carries modelling risks. On these grounds, the Edhec-Risk Institute makes three recommendations: Diversify beta investment, since beta is not exposed in the same way to various market conditions, particularly volatility (low and high) and trends (rising or falling). Maintain clear information on tracking error and extreme tracking error compared with cap size-weighted indices Manage this constraint actively, as ultimately that will improve the information and performance-adjusted risk ratios for these new indices. The findings of the study show that with explicit constraints in terms of tracking error the maximal tracking error for a diversified alternative index is reduced by 44%, while the median relative returns are reduced by only 17%. An efficiently diversified portfolio, which combines minimal volatility and stratgies to maximise Sharpe ratios, can improve the maximal relative drawdown compared with single strategies with no relative risk control by 35% and 28.5%, respectively.
