02/04/2010
Vontobel launches Fiscal Risk Index
On the basis of seven factors, Vontobel is now calculating an exclusive index of fiscal risks for 17 countries and for the European Union (though France is not considered individually). The Vontobel Fiscal Risk Index (FRI) takes into account the fundamental fiscal situation, meaning that it does not limit itself to debt levels or to budget deficits, but takes into account other indicators necessary to establish a bigger picture. These include current debt levels, primary budget balance adjusted for growth, the relation of nominal interest rates and nominal growth in GDP, current account deficits, productivity gains, track record of successful fiscal consolidations, and average maturity of public debts. By these measures, Greece poses a high budgetary risk (5.7 out of 10), compared with with only Portugal (5.8) and Japan (6.9) rank higher. On the basis of CDS spreads, Greece is far above the fair value line, which makes it an attractive investment. The same is true of Ireland, Portugal and Sweden. Among the countries which are correctly valued according to the FRI, Vontobel cites Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Spain, and, a narrow shave, the EU. However, CDS from Germany, the Netherlands, Japan and the United States are too low, in light of the effective risk levels they entail.
