Asset management professionals worldwide hold the optimistic opinion that no country will be leaving the euro zone this year, and that budgetary union will be formed in the next 10 years, according to the findings of a survey by the multi-management team at Aviva Investors, of 188 fund managers in major asset classes. While 41% of respondents say that some countries will be leaving the euro zone in the next 10 years, only one quarter of them (23%) think that it will happen this year. Among the remaining 36%, some don’t agree with this prediction, while others think that the exits will be offset by the addition of new countries, or will not occur at all. More than half of respondents (52%) are optimistic about the future of the euro zone, and feel that budgetarr union will be formed in the next 10 years. However, only 41% predict that the ECB or political leaders will take the necessary action to restore confidence in the euro zone during 2012. Mick Mansley, global head of multi-management at Aviva Investors, says that “no consensus is forming among managers as to the future of the euro. While we will continue to evaluate the ability of our managers to consider the consequences of a collapse of the euro zone, the findings show that over ten years, most managers are more optimistic and are predicting that a budgetary union able to assure the future of the euro will be created.” About economic outlooks in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany, 83% of respondents feel that the US economy will show the strongest growth in 2012, compared with only 17% for Germany. Although no managers reel that the United Kingdom would be able to turn in the strongest growth, 48% think that the British economy will have the highest inflation rate. As to their predictions for interest rate increases, half of managers (54%) predict that interest rates will be raised before the end of 2013. The highest and lowest probabilities went to the US and the EU. One third (33%) predict no increase in interest rates before 2014 at the earliest.

In a study entitled «What are the Risks of European ETFs?» which considers the “real” risks related to ETFs in Europe, Edhec finds that in counterparty risk, it is not logical to weigh physical and synthetic replication products against each other, nor to draw a distinction between financed and non-financed swaps. Both distinctions are not wholly relevant in practice, and give a false sense of “relative” security.After pointing out that the vast majority of European ETFs are UCITS-compliant and are therefore exposed to the same risks as any fund that complies with the mutual fund directive, Edhec adds that regardless of the replication techniques used, ETFs are exposed to counterparty risks. Securities lending and borrowing, which is common for physical replication ETFs, expose the fund to counterparty risks as surely as the use of over-the-counter swaps needed for the use of synthetic replication does.Investors “should pay closer attention to the top-priority questions which are determinant in the effective reduction of counterparty risks: the level of guarantee, the quality of assets, and the ability of the fund to enforce its rights on these assets in case of a counterparty default.” In these conditions, “massive marketing and public relations campaigns launched by some ETF providers in order to promote distinctions between types of replication on the basis of counterparty risks are thus misleading, and do not lead to better awareness of the risks on the part of investors,” the study says.

Distributors of financial products, particularly banking groups, are burning their bridges with external asset management firms, preferring to tout their own funds, an article in Financial Times Fund Management first published in Ignites observes. In Germany, Deutsche Bank is reported to have forbidden Postbank from selling third-party funds, in France, Crédit Agricole is said to have asked its regional networks to stop offering funds from outside providers and to focus only on Amundi, its asset management affiliate. Mandarine Gestion says for its part that some fund platforms have stopped working with independent asset managers. Rémi Leservoisier, CEO, says “that could become a problem for boutiques if it becomes systematic.”

As of the end of December, Austrian funds had EUR134.59bn in assets under management, compared with EUR133.2bn one month yearlier, and EUR145bn one year previously. Assets in 2011 fell by EUR10.66bn, or 7.34%, of which EUR4.68bn were due to net redemptions, EUR2.2bn to dividends, and EUR3.79bn in capital losses (market effects), the VÖIG association of management firms reports.The 24 asset management firms in the country as of the end of the year had 2,159 securities funds, of which 1,137 were retail funds, 265 were funds dedicated to groups of large investors, and 757 were institutional funds. Overall, 131 funds were liquidated, and 20 were merged, while 122 were launched.Assets at the five real estate fund management firms increased last year by EUR478.42m, or about 20%, to a total of slightly over EUR2.9bn. Net subscriptions totalled EUR427m, while dividends represented EUR47m, and average annual returns totalled 3.1%.

According to the Portuguese investment fund, pension and wealth association (Associação Portuguesa de Fundos de Investimento, Pensões e Patrimónios, or AFPIPP), liquid assets in Portuguese real estate funds as of the end of December totalled only EUR11.2762bn, 1.1% more than at the end of November, and 2% less than the EUR11.4918bn observed twelve months earlier. Real estate assets, for their part, totalled EUR14.3283bn, up 1.2% in November, and 1.5% compared with the end of December 2010.The three largest firms are Fundimo, with EUR1.565bn (-7% year on year), Interfundos, with EUR1.1295bn (+0.6%), and ESAF-FI, with EUR1.110bn (-14%).

The asset management firm Ossiam, specialised in the development of ETFs based on strategy indices, today released the FTSE 100 Minimum Variance ETF. The fund, which is listed on the London Stock Exchange, is reserved exclusively for British investors. The product thus is constructed similarly to the “Minimum Variance” range. By simultaneously applying liquidity filters – in this case, 95% of the most liquid shares of the FTSE 100 index are used as the selection universe – and also limiting the maximum weight of any single stock in the portfolio to 4.5% and of any sector to 20%, while ensuring diversification of shares and undertaking a quarterly rebalancing of the index, volatility is reduced by more than 24% on average, compared with the benchmark index. Drawdowns are also significantly reduced.With the launch of this ETF, Ossiam is also for the first time offering a product that uses physical replication. Isabelle Bourcier has told Newsmanagers that the choice was a commercial one above all. “The FTSE 100 index is an indicator which is commonly used in the UK by private banks, wealth managers, etc., who are highly attached to physical replication.” The product has another particularity: shares held by Ossiam are not lent out. Clearly, physical replication has a cost: higher tracking error, averaging 0.25% per year, due to the cost of trading shares on the London Stock Exchange.

The French financial management association AFG on 17 January announced that the chief investment officer at CPR AM, Arnaud Faller, has become chairman of the technical management committee at the professional association. He succeeds Bernard Descreux, who is leaving La Banque Postale AM. At the core of AFG’s activities the technical management committee relies on several specialist working groups. The main themes in the past few months have been work on transposing the UCITS IV directive and the MiFID II directive for markets and complex products, responses to consultations by ESMA about ETFs and structured funds (particularly about methods for calculating liabilities for formula funds), response to a European commission consultation on ratings, responses to consultations from the Financial Stability Board on money market funds and ETFs, and the measurement of global risk and risk management in relation to the AMF. THE AFG reporter for the committee is Adina Gurau-Audibert.

The Association nationale des sociétés par actions (ANSA) on 17 January announced the appointment of Christian Schricke as deputy CEO. In this position, he replaces Robert Baconnier, who had served in this position since January 2005, and who is retiring. Baconnier nonetheless remains as chairman of the association until the next meeting of the board of directors on 9 February 2012, when a new chairman will be elected. Schricke, who has been advisor to the chairman of the Société Générale group since September 2009, has been a member of the AMF college since May 2011.

The Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems (CPSS) of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and the technical committee of the International Organisation of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) on 17 January published their final report on the operation of registries that would centralise and redistribute information about over-the-counter (OTC) derivative instruments. Some questions remain regarding how best to address current data gaps and define authorities’ access to TRs. As requested by the G20, two internationally coordinated working groups will address these questions in the coming year. The FSB will establish an ad hoc group of experts to further consider means of filling current data gaps, while the CPSS and IOSCO will establish a joint group to examine authorities’ access to trade repositories.

Lazard has launched a fund which aims to earn returns in line with the market, but with volatility 20% to 40% lower than the MSCI World index, Investment Week reports. The Global Controlled Volatility fund, based in Dublin, is managed by a team led by Susanne Willumsen in London and Paul Moghtader in Boston. The portfolio will include 250 to 350 shares, and will have a turnover of 40% to 60% per year.

The British asset management firm Liontrust will launch an Asian income fund in early March, Investment Week reports. It will be managed by Mark Williams, who recently joined the group when Linotrust acquired the specialist emerging markets boutique Occam. The fund, which will aim to earn high returns from capital appreciation and revenues, will have an objective of returns about 10% higher than the MSCI All-Country Asia ex Japan index. The fund will be domiciled in the United Kingdom, with a minimal investment of GBP1,000 and management fees of 1.5% per year.

The hedge funds that earned the largest inflows in 2011 were CTA or managed futures funds and macro funds, with a net total of USD19bn and USD17bn, respectively, Eurekahedge reports. In total, hedge funds have posted net subscriptions of USD51bn for the year, while they have lost 4.15% overall. However, 500 funds have made more than 10% in the twelve months under review. Despite an inglorious year, the pace of fund launches was sustained in 2011, with more than 1,100 new products on the market.

Companies of the CAC 40 index last year distributed EUR44.6bn in the form of dividends and share repurchases, up 15% compared with 2010, according to the newsletter vernimmen.net, Les Echos reports. Total and France Télécom are still at the top of the rankings of the biggest “payers.” Sanofi takes third place. These three giants represent about 30% of the amounts paid last year. A notable phenomenon is that share repurchases were the area that grew most overall, as share prices fell: buybacks (net of sales) totalled EUR5.7bn, nearly triple their level in 2010 (EUR1.95bn). Bouygues, which last year launched a vast share repurchasing programme, is the largest contributor to this total. For their parti, dividends paid last year increased by 6%, to EUR38.49bn, while 2010 results showed a net rebound.

The Markit group, specialised in financial information, on 17 January announced that it was adding to its CDS product range with the publication of a daily report on sensitivity, which will provide clients with information about relationships between CDS prices and other market variables. The new services, Markit CDS Sensitivities, will provide a way to evaluate the sensitivity of a CDS spread to fluctuations in interest rates and credit quality, among others.

Thomson Reuters GFMS, which yesterday published its 2011 report on gold, is predicting more record peaks this year, Les Echos reports. The price of gold may exceed USD2,000 per ounce later this year or in 2013. In the short term, the institute is more prudent, as after a massive average increase of 28% in 2011, the price of gold may consolidate. It is predicting an average price in first half of USD1,640 per ounce.

La société d’investissement immobilier, à l’origine de 3 des 4 opérations privées réalisées depuis 2008, va émettre 415,7 millions de dollars de RMBS

Rome va accroître au premier semestre ses émissions courtes, et prépare un emprunt aux particuliers

Rome va accroître au premier semestre ses émissions courtes, et prépare un emprunt aux particuliers

Standard and Poor’s a décidé de ne pas dégrader la Banque européenne d’investissement. Elle juge que la qualité de son portefeuille de prêts est bonne et que son capital reste suffisant. Un bon signe pour le futur Mécanisme européen de stabilité, qui aura une structure similaire.

Malgré la dégradation de la France et de l'Autriche, qui a diminué le montant de capital AAA appelable, S&P a confirmé la note maximale de la banque

Le plus important fonds de pension américain, celui des employés du secteur public californien, a signé selon le quotidien un accord pour la cession d’un portefeuille immobilier pour un montant de 500 à 600 millions de dollars. Il s’agit d’un ensemble de vingt-huit communautés de logements qui est cédé à une association entre le promoteur californien Newland Real Estate et une filiale du numéro un japonais de la construction de logements Sekisui House. Calpers a acquis ces actifs sur une période de cinq ans à partir de 2002 et pourrait selon le quotidien subir une perte à l’occasion de leur cession comprise entre 30 et 50%.

Le quotidien, qui cite des sources proches, croit savoir que la banque américaine est disposée à acquérir pour environ 1,1 milliard de dollars le plus important centre commercial de Saint-Pétersbourg. Cela par le biais du fonds Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investing (MSREI). La transaction, qui devrait être entérinée d’ici quelques semaines, serait la plus importante dans l’immobilier russe pour un actif unique.

La région Rhône-Alpes a procédé à sa première émission obligataire de 120 millions d'euros, trois jours après une émission à 11 ans de la région PACA

Le Fonds de garantie américain des dépôts a proposé que les banques détenant plus de 10 milliards de dollars d’actifs conduisent eux-mêmes des tests de résistance chaque année. La FDIC soumettrait ainsi avant mi-novembre trois scénarios économiques auxquels les établissements seraient tenus de se confronter. Ils renverraient alors un rapport en début d’année. Cette proposition, soumise à consultation, fait écho à un dispositif du même type présenté par la Fed l’an dernier.

Le conseil d’administration du FMI, qui dispose actuellement d’une capacité de 350 milliards de dollars, a évoqué hier l’augmentation des ressources du fonds, a déclaré hier sa directrice générale Christine Lagarde. Ce matin, le Chancelier de l’Echiquier britannique a déclaré avoir discuté avec son homologue japonais des moyens d’une contribution des deux pays à la crise européenne.

La croissance manufacturière dans l’Etat de New York s’est accélérée en janvier, pour atteindre son niveau le plus élevé en neuf mois dans un contexte de progression à la fois des commandes et de l’emploi, a fait savoir la Réserve fédérale de New York. L’indice dit «Empire State» est ressorti à 13,48 contre 8,19 (révisé) en décembre et un consensus le donnant à 11. Il est au plus haut depuis avril 2011.

La Commission européenne a ouvert hier une triple procédure d’infraction contre la Hongrie pour ses lois sur la banque centrale, le pouvoir judiciaire et l’autorité de contrôle des données. Le collège des commissaires européens a par ailleurs décidé de ramener à un mois - contre deux en temps normal - le temps octroyé à Budapest pour répondre à ces inquiétudes et modifier ces lois. «Nous espérions que les autorités hongroises feraient les changements nécessaires pour se conformer au droit européen. Cela n’ayant pour l’instant pas été le cas, nous avons lancé une procédure contre ces violations», a expliqué hier le président de la CE. Le Premier ministre Viktor Orban doit venir à Bruxelles le 24 janvier pour évoquer ces question, a précisé José Manuel Barroso. Budapest a assuré vouloir répondre à la totalité des inquiétudes de la Commission, sans passer par la case judiciaire.

Le gouvernement central espagnol a décidé d’octroyer des lignes de crédit aux 17 régions endettées dans le but de rembourser leurs créances externes et compte allonger de 5 ans la durée de remboursement des 31 milliards d’euros de dette contractée auprès de l’administration centrale. En contrepartie, le gouvernement imposera des sanctions aux régions qui n’auront pas respecté leurs objectifs budgétaires. «Nous sommes tous dans le même bateau » a indiqué Cristobal Montoro, le ministre du budget.

Les investissements directs étrangers (IDE) en Chine ont progressé de 9,7% en 2011 à 116 milliards de dollars malgré une chute de 12,7% en décembre à 12,24 milliards, selon les données publiées ce matin par le ministère du commerce. Les IDE provenant des Etats-Unis ont plongé de 26,1% à 3 milliards et les IDE européens ont progressé de 3,65% à 6,3 milliards.

Les associés des SCPI Accès Pierre, Valeur Pierre Union et Valeur Pierre Alliance, d’une part, et Investipierre et Immobilière Privée-France Pierre, d’autre part, gérées par BNP Paribas REIM France, ont approuvé leur fusion. La SCPI fusionnée « Accès Valeur Pierre » devient ainsi l’une des toutes premières SCPI en France en termes de capitalisation avec 133 actifs représentant une valeur de réalisation de l’ordre de 1,3 milliard d’euros.