Ayant en partie anticipé les tensions actuelles, les sociétés de gestion traditionnelles n’ont que marginalement modifié leurs stratégies d’allocation. Les valorisations des actions, qui ont fortement baissé ces dernières semaines, suscitent à nouveau un intérêt sélectif.

Ayant en partie anticipé les tensions actuelles, les gestions n’ont que marginalement modifié leurs stratégies d’allocation

La crise actuelle constitue une mise à l'épreuve du « principe de séparation » entre la politique de taux et la politique de gestion de liquidité de l'institution

La probabilité atteint 25 % selon une enquête Reuters, contre 20 % en juillet. Goldman Sachs ou BoA Merrill Lynch sont encore plus pessimistes

Alors que les rachats de dettes par la BCE constituent un véritable test de son «principe de séparation» entre ses politiques de taux et de gestion de la liquidité au sein de l’Eurosystème, les économistes commencent à reporter l’idée d’une hausse du refi à 2012, tandis que la courbe de l’Eonia anticipé va même jusqu'à suggérer une baisse du taux directeur.

Assets under management in investment funds worldwide as of the end of March 2011 totalled EUR19.5trn, down 2.2% compared with the end of December 2010, according to statistics published by the European fund and asset management association (EFAMA). However, expressed in US dollars, assets in funds are up 4% in the same period. Inflows totalled USD102bn in first quarter, compared with EUR165bn in fourth quarter 2010. This reduced level of inflows is largely due to observed redemptions from money market funds totalling EUR74bn. Net inflows to long-term funds, excluding money market funds, totalled EUR176bn, compared with EUR198bn one quarter earlier, while bond funds had inflows of EUR42bn, compared with EUR23bn in fourth quarter 2010. In Europe, inflows to long-term funds totalled EUR39bn, compared with EUR67bn previously, reflecting continuing tensions on equities and sovereign debt markets.

In the first days of the month of August, bond funds dedicated to emerging markets have consolidated their status as a «safe» assets in the context of a widening crisis, due to problems with government debt on both sides of the Atlantic and gathering signs of a slowdown to come in global economic growth. According to the most recent estimates by EPFR Global, emerging markets bond funds earned net inflows of over USD1bn in the week to 2 august, while funds dedicated to local currencies have received levels of interest not seen for more than a year. Since the beginning of the year, emerging market bond funds have posted net inflows of over USD19bn. Other beneficiaries of the current turbulence include funds dedicated to gold and German equities. Eight out of the nine top equities funds have seen redemptiosn in the week ending on 2 August, as well as seven out of the nine largest sectoral fund groups. Equities funds finished the week under review with net outflows of USD7.9bn, while bond funds posted net redemptions of USD1.2bn.

Citi Private Bank, Asia-Pacific has named Bassam Salem as its CEO; in autumn 2001, he will replace Aamir Rahim, who has been appointed to lead the Public Sector Group at Citi for the Asia-Pacific region, Wealthbriefing reports. Salem has previously spent 15 years at Citi Private Bank, from 1985 to 2000. He then joined EFG Bank, where he has most recently developed activities in Asia and the Middle East. Citi is one of the largest actors in wealth management in Asia-Pacific, with assets under management of USD193bn.

Source, a provider specialised in distribution of exchange-traded products (ETP), has announced that its Source Physical Platinum P-ETC (SPPT LN) and Source Physical Palladium P-ETC (SPAL LN) products have been recognised as Sharia-compliant Islamic investment instrument certificates. The products were approved on 26 July 2011, by a Sharia compliance committee composed of specialists in Islamic law, a statement says.

Upon completion of a selection process announced on January 25 for mandates invested in equities of developed countries (passive management), the French national pension fund, the Fonds de réserve pour les retraites (FRR) on 8 August announced that it has selected BNP Paribas Asset Management and Amundi for a mandate to replicate non-capitalisation-weighted optimised indices. The FRR has also selected Vanguard Asset Management Limited and Alliance Bernstein Limited for a mandate to replicate capitalisation-weighted market indices. These mandates are awarded for a period of four years, renewable one year. The global indicative amount of the funds under management is 1 billion euros for each lot.

On January 25, 2011, the FRR launched a restrictive RFP divided in two 2 lots to select managers for mandates invested in equities of developed countries (passive management). Upon completion of the selection process, the FRR has selected the offers submitted by the following companies: Lot 1 : Passive management mandates whose objective is to replicate capitalisation-weighted market indices: Vanguard Asset Management Limited and Alliance Bernstein Limited. Lot 2 : Passive management mandates whose objective is to replicate non-capitalisation-weighted optimised indices: BNP Paribas Asset Management and Amundi. These mandates are awarded for a period of four years, renewable one year. The global indicative amount of the funds under management is 1 billion euros for each lot.

Gold and the Swiss franc have risen to record highs following a downgrade of the United States credit rating, the Financial Times reports. Gold rose by more than 3%, and for the first time topped USD1,700 per ounce, while the Swiss franc has set a new record at CHF0.7497 per 1 USD. Adjusted for inflation, Monday’s record price of gold, at USD1,719, remains below a peak in 1980, which would be equivalent to USD2,500 in 2011 dollars. But JPMorgan predicts that this level may be reached by the end of this year.

The downgrading by Standard & Poor’s of the credit rating of the United States from AAA to AA+ on August 5th was «precipitous, wrong, and dangerous», according to Bill Miller, the renowned manager of Legg Mason Capital Management. «At best, S&P showed a stunning ignorance and complete disregard for the potential consequences of its actions on a fragile global financial system. S&P chose to take this action after the worst week in US equity markets since 2008, a week which not only saw stocks fall sharply, but which also witnessed a dangerous escalation in the ongoing European debt crisis with spreads widening to post-Euro records in systemically-important countries such as Italy and Spain amid general political paralysis», he writes in a 3 pages note released on Monday. First, for Bill Miller, «there was no need for S&P to rush to judgment just days after a bruising political battle had secured a bipartisan agreement to raise the debt ceiling through the next election cycle and which initiated a process to begin to cut spending and address the nation’s long term fiscal imbalances.and should have counted for, not against, the US’s AAA rating, as Moody’s correctly opined». According to him, «it is perfectly clear S&P either did not consider or did not care what the consequences of this hasty and rash decision might be.Secondly, there are at least three reasons why Bill Miller thinks S&P was wrong to downgrade. «First, it is incredible that S&P should think the US is less creditworthy on a short or long term basis now than it was two weeks ago, when an agreement to raise the debt ceiling had not been reached, both parties appeared intransigent, and contingency plans were being considered including prioritizing payments or even declaring the debt ceiling null and void under Section 4 or the 14th Amendment». Second, Bill Miller thinks that S&P apparently gave little or no weight, or certainly insufficient weight, to the unique role the United States plays in the global economy. «The United States is the largest, most productive economy in the world and the dollar remains the global reserve currency», he says. Third, the market says S&P is wrong, according to Bill Miller. «The US enjoys among the lowest interest rates in its history coincident with the highest deficits and a daunting long term fiscal outlook. Yet when investors in a highly uncertain world are looking for safe assets, they invest in US Treasuries».Perhaps most worrisome, S&P’s actions pose unpredictable and dangerous risks to the global economy. «At this point S&P has managed to create what Keynes called irreducible uncertainty: we just have no idea what the consequences may be of S&P deciding that the risk-free assets issued by the country that occupies a unique place in the global economy may not be risk free after all», Bill Miller writes. «One consequence we can all hope for is that Congress ends the oligopoly of Nationally Recognized Statistical Ratings Agencies (NRSRO) before they contribute to or ignite another financial crisis», he concludes.

The top US managers do not agree about the decision by Standard & Poor’s to downgrade its sovereign rating for the United States, Investment Week reports. Bill Gross at Pimco, the manager of the world’s largest bond fund, claims that S&P made a courageous choice. However, Bill Miller, at Legg Mason, claims that the agency’s decision was sudden, mistaken and dangerous. Warrenn Buffett has also been critical of S&P’s move.

Evolution Group, the listed investment bank and private client investment management group, has announced that its wholly owned private client investment management subsidiary, Williams de Broë Limited , has reached agreement with BNP Paribas Wealth Management S.A. for the acquisition of the entire issued share capital of the former Fortis Private Investment Management business, now BNP Paribas Private Investment Management Limited . Completion of the Acquisition is conditional only on the Financial Services Authority granting its consent to the change of control of PIM. An application for such consent has been submitted and it is expected that such consent will be granted and the acquisition will be completed prior to the end of the current financial year. The acquisition of PIM, which comprises a UK private client investment management business under the stewardship of a team located in London with a small Global Derivatives Department and US Brokerage, is ultimately expected to result in approximately GBP1.8bn assets under management transferring to Williams de Broë.

The Danish pension fund ATP, which opened an office in London in June 2010, has recruited Jerry Gandhi as a strategic consultant for its planned launch of a British pension platform, the website IPE reports. Gandhi previously worked at RSA Insurance Group as group pensions director. The British platform is slated for launch by the end of this year.

Jabre Capital has recruited several employees, including Mona Il Isa, a veteran of Goldman Sachs, who made it into the global rankings of the 30 best traders aged under 30 in September 2008, Financial News reports. At Jabre, she will manage a portfolio of European and US equities.

The New York-based investment boutique Octavian Advisors, specialised in special situations and distressed businesses, has opened an office in London, entitled Octavian Advisors (UK) Limited. Octavian has already invested more than half of its assets in Europe. Among its most significant investments are Head, Preem, IMO Car Wash, Balda, ProSieben, Glitnir and DMT. The London office will be directed by Fook Hien Yap, who joined Octavian last year.

Default rates on speculative grade corporate debt issues fell to 1.9% in the month of July, compared with 2.3% in June, and 5.5% one year earlier, according to monthly statistics from Moody’s. On the basis of a moderate scenario of a slow economic recovery, the agency predicts that default rates will stabilise at a low level in the next 12 months, with a rate of 1.5% by the end of this year, and of 1.8% by July 2012. Standard & Poor’s, for its part, says that the default rate on speculative grade corporate issues was 2% in June this year, its lowest level since August 2008. However, the agency notes, the default rate is at risk of rising in the near future due to rising uncertainty.

The HFRI composite hedge fund index in July posted an increase of 0.76%, largely due to the strong contribution of macro trend strategies, which gained 3.57% in the month. The HFRI Macro (Total) index gained 2.52% in July, with gains observed for most macro and CTA strategies. The HFRI fund of hedge fund index, for its part, has posted a gain of 0.65%, in line with the performance of single manager strategies.

In a survey by Citywire of its readers, 84% of respondents say that they would not hesitate to pull out of a fund in order to follow the manager of the fund, if they should decide to move to another management firm. This finding confirms anecdotal evidence that the manager in charge of a fund is the key person to consider in an investment decision, and not the management firm that employs him/her.

Le FRR a lancé le 25 janvier 2011 un appel d’offres restreint, composé de deux lots, pour la sélection de gestionnaires de mandats investis en actions des pays développés (gestion passive). A l’issue du processus de sélection, le FRR a décidé de sélectionner les offres suivantes : Lot 1 : Mandats de gestion passive visant à répliquer des indices de marché pondérés par les capitalisations. - Vanguard Asset Management Limited - Alliance Bernstein Limited Lot 2 : Mandats de gestion passive visant à répliquer des indices optimisés non pondérés par les capitalisations. - BNP Paribas Asset Management - Amundi Les mandats seront attribués pour une durée de quatre ans, renouvelable un an. Le montant global indicatif des fonds confiés au démarrage de la gestion s'élève à 1 milliard d’euros sur chaque lot. Le FRR se félicite de la qualité des offres reçues et en remercie l’ensemble des candidats.

Jabre Capital vient de recruter plusieurs collaborateurs, dont Mona El Isa, une ancienne de Goldman Sachs qui était apparue dans le classement mondial des 30 meilleurs traders de moins de 30 ans en septembre 2008, indique Financial News. Chez Jabre, elle gère un portefeuille d’actions européennes et américaines.

Citi Private Bank, Asia-Pacific vient de désigner Bassam Salem en qualité de CEO, qui remplacera à l’automne 2011 Aamir Rahim, appelé à piloter le «Public Sector Group» de Citi pour la zone Asie-Pacifique, rapporte Wealthbriefing.Bassam Salem a déjà travaillé pendant une quinzaine d’années chez Citi Private Bank, entre 1985 et 2000. Il a par la suite rejoint EFG Bank, dont il a dernièrement développé les activités en Asie et au Moyen-Orient. Citi est l’un des grands acteurs de la gestion de fortune dans la zone Asie-Pacifique avec des actifs sous gestion de 193 milliards de dollars.

Le fonds de pension danois ATP, qui a ouvert un bureau à Londres en juin 2010, vient de recruter Jerry Gandhi en qualité de consultant stratégique dans le cadre de son projet de lancement d’une plate-forme britannique dédiée aux retraites, selon le site IPE.Jerry Gandhi travaillait précédemment chez RSA Insurance Group en tant que group pensions director. La plate-forme britannique devrait être lancée d’ici à la fin de l’année.

A l’issue du processus de sélection lancé le 25 janvier dernier pour des mandats de gestion passive investis en actions des pays développés, le Fonds de réserve pour les retraites (FRR) a annoncé le 8 août avoir sélectionné BNP Paribas Asset Management et Amundi pour un lot concernant des mandats visant à répliquer des indices optimisés non pondérés par les capitalisations.Le FRR a également sélectionné Vanguard Asset Management Limited et Alliance Bernstein Limited pour un lot de mandats visant à répliquer des indices de marché pondérés par les capitalisations. Les mandats seront attribués pour une durée de quatre ans, renouvelable un an. Le montant global indicatif des fonds confiés au démarrage de la gestion s’élève à 1 milliard d’euros sur chaque lot.

Lors de sa séance du 21 juin 2011, le collège de l’AMF a décidé de prononcer le retrait de son agrément en qualité de société de gestion de portefeuille à La Nouvelle Finance, ayant constaté que la société de gestion française «ne remplissait plus les conditions auxquelles est subordonné le maintien de son agrément», indique le régulateur dans un communiqué, sans préciser de quelles conditions il s’agit. Contactée par NewsManagers, La Nouvelle Finance n’a pas souhaité s’exprimer "à ce stade» sur la décision de l’autorité de marché.Le retrait d’agrément prendra effet le 1er septembre 2011. En attendant, la société de gestion créée en 2009 par des anciens d’UBS est placée sous le contrôle d’Alain Hindié, désigné en qualité de mandataire par l’AMF. Jusqu'à cette date, l’activité de la société de gestion devra se limiter aux «opérations strictement nécessaires à la préservation des intérêts des porteurs du fonds d’investissement de proximité qu’elle gère», précise l’AMF. La Nouvelle Finance, qui avait demandé au Conseil d’Etat la suspension de la mise en œuvre immédiate de la décision de l’AMF, a vu sa requête rejetée par une ordonnance en date du 5 août 2011. Le communiqué souligne que la société a également déposé un recours sur le fond devant le Conseil d’Etat qui est toujours en cours.

Source, le fournisseur spécialisé dans la distribution de produits négociables en Bourse (ETP), annonce que ses produits Source Physical Platinum P-ETC (SPPT LN) et Source Physical Palladium P-ETC (SPAL LN) ont été reconnus en tant que certificats d’investissement islamiques conformes à la Charia. Les produits ont été approuvés le 26 juillet 2011 par un comité de conformité Charia composé de spécialistes de la loi islamique, indique un communiqué.

David Steyn, le nouveau directeur général de la branche européenne d’AllianceBernstein, a du pain sur la planche. Les actifs gérés pour le compte de fonds de pension britanniques ont chuté de 24,3 % à 10 milliards de livres en 2010, selon le FTfm. A l’échelle mondiale, les encours de la société de gestion ont glissé de 801 milliards de dollars en 2007 à 461 milliards en juin. «La principale priorité du groupe dans le monde est d’améliorer la performance des actions de grandes capitalisations», indique David Steyn, dans un entretien au FTfm.

La boutique d’investissement new yorkaise spécialisée dans les situations spéciales et les entreprises en difficulté Octavian Advisors vient d’ouvrir une antenne à Londres, Octavian Advisors (UK) Limited.Octavian a déjà investi plus de la moitié de ses actifs en Europe. Parmi ses investisseurs les plus significatifs figurent notamment Head, Preem, IMO Car Wash, Balda, ProSieben, Glitnir et DMT. Le bureau londonien sera dirigé par Fook Hien Yap, qui a rejoint Octavian l’an dernier.