Les économistes estiment que le compromis sur le «fiscal cliff» aura un effet limité sur la croissance qu'ils attendent autour de 2% en 2013

Alors qu'un nouveau plan doit être présenté ce trimestre, les autorités allemandes et britanniques redoutent sa complexité et son coût

Au troisième trimestre, les banques centrales ont accentué leurs positions en billet vert tandis que l'euro a fait les frais de la crise de la dette

Plusieurs membres ont estimé lors de sa dernière réunion qu’il serait approprié de ralentir ou d’arrêter les rachats avant la fin de l'année

Les minutes de la dernière réunion de décembre du comité de politique monétaire (FOMC) de la Réserve fédérale américaine, publiées hier soir, montrent que «plusieurs membres ont estimé qu’il serait approprié de ralentir ou d’arrêter les rachats avant la fin de l’année 2013, faisant état de leurs inquiétudes sur la stabilité financière ou la taille du bilan».

L'exposition des fonds aux établissements de la zone monétaire a augmenté de 8% entre octobre et novembre. Sans regagner les niveaux de 2011

Dans une tribune accordée hier au Monde, le premier ministre fixe le cap en indiquant souhaiter «renouveler en profondeur le modèle français pour l’adapter au temps présent». En pleine négociations entre organisations syndicales et patronales sur la réforme du marché du travail, Jean-Marc Ayrault précise le chemin souhaité par le gouvernement qui est de «refaire du CDI la forme normale d’embauche, encadrer le recours au temps partiel, mais aussi anticiper collectivement les mutations économiques et aider les entreprises à surmonter les difficultés conjoncturelles sans licencier». Les dernières négociations butaient sur la taxation des CDD, à laquelle le Medef reste opposé. Si Jean-Marc Ayrault rappelle que «faute d’accord, le gouvernement prendra ses responsabilités», un compromis social est d’autant plus important pour le gouvernement que les agences de notation ont fait de cette réforme un test de sa volonté de mener des réformes structurelles pour améliorer la compétitivité de l'économie française.

Pour sa première émission obligataire à moyen et long terme de l’année, la France a levé hier 7,993 milliards d’euros, dont notamment 3,53 milliards sur la ligne d’OAT à échéance le 25 octobre 2022 au taux moyen pondéré de 2,07%, contre 2,22% lors de la dernière adjudication comparable, le 31 octobre dernier. Il s’agit du plus bas historique pour un emprunt français à 10 ans.

Pénalisées par l’impact de la crise de la zone euro, les perspectives de croissance de l'économie helvétique se sont dégradées pour le troisième mois consécutif en décembre et davantage qu’anticipé, selon l’indice de l’institut KOF. Ce baromètre mesurant les perspectives d'évolution de l’activité à un horizon de six mois est revenu à 1,28 le mois dernier contre 1,50 en novembre.

Le volume d’immatriculations de véhicules particuliers a concédé un repli de 16% le mois dernier en Allemagne, selon la fédération nationale d’importateurs VDIK. De quoi faire reculer le marché de 2,9% sur l’ensemble de l’année 2012, à 3,08 millions d’unités écoulées. La VDIK estime que la baisse des ventes devrait se poursuivre cette année, sans exclure toutefois une stagnation du marché.

Les dépôts bancaires des particuliers et des entreprises des pays en difficulté de la zone euro sont restés globalement stables en novembre, selon les statistiques de la BCE, ce qui témoigne d’un début de retour de la confiance. Les dépôts du secteur privé en Italie ont par exemple augmenté de 0,1% à 1.443 milliards d’euros après une baisse de près de 2% en octobre, tandis que les banques espagnoles ont enregistré une hausse de 0,8% à 1.516 milliards.

Le ministère de l’Economie a annoncé la mise en place d’un nouveau dispositif de plus de 500 millions d’euros de garantie publique des crédits aux PME et TPE, l’une des mesures du plan de compétitivité annoncé en novembre. L’enveloppe sera mise à disposition de la banque publique Oséo, bientôt rattachée à la Banque publique d’investissement vers laquelle les banques pourront se tourner pour obtenir une garantie sur les crédits de trésorerie. Pierre Moscovoci a en outre confirmé que la loi sur la consommation attendue au printemps intégrera une disposition visant à remplacer les sanctions civiles et pénales en cas de non-respect des délais de paiement interentreprises par une sanction administrative. Le ministre a également demandé à l'économiste Jean-Michel Charpin de lui soumettre des propositions pour faciliter la gestion de leur trésorerie par les TPE et les PME, via notamment l’affacturage ou le recours à l’assurance-crédit.

The Geneva-based consulting firm Blue Lakes Advisors has signed a representation agreement with Paradigm Capital, a Canadian investment company specialised in Canadian capital markets, Agefi Switzerland reports. The agreement was accepted in mid-January by the Ontario Securities Commission, the Canadian supervisory authority. Blue Lakes will distribute research by Paradigm, which has a solid reputation in the natural resources sector in particular, to its institutional clients.

The Royal Bank of Canada, one of the 15 largest banks in the world and the fifth-largest in North America by market capitalisation, has joind the Swiss Structured Products Association (ASPS), Agefi Switzerland reports. The head of the structured products division for Switzerland, Stefan Hascoet, welcomes the new membership: “Switzerland is the largest market for structured products in Europe. Our membership in the ASPS is a sign of our commitment and reinforces our reputation as an established provider of structured products on this market.”

Investors continued to place their money in European funds in November, placing EUR27.6bn in long-term funds, according to statistics compiled by Morningstar. Subscriptions since the beginning of the year total EUR174.6m in the first 11 months of 2012 for open-ended funds (excluding money markets). Investors’ interest in returns has not let up. In November, subscriptions to bond funds totalled EUR19.9bn, the second-highest level of inflows for these funds since Morningstar began publishing data of this type (2007). In the first 11 months of the year 2012, investors placed EUR158m in bond funds, compared with inflows of EUR96.5m in 2010. Although bond funds continue to dominate, investors in equity funds made a comeback, with EUR4.74bn in inflows in November for funds in this asset class. The Morningstar global emerging markets, mixed international equities, and international value large cap equities categories posted the strongest inflows, while French and euro zone equities were the most unpopular. In the first 11 months of the year, equity funds remain in negative territory, with net redemptions of EUR11.05bn. Allocation funds remain popular. They have posted net inflows of EUR3.1bn in November, and EUR25bn since the beginning of 2012. In the rankings of asset management firms with the largest inflows, the bond specialist PIMCO comes out on top, with net subscriptions of EUR28.74bn in November, more than twice the level of the second-place asset management firm, Alliance Bernstein (EUR11.95bn). They are followed by Axa (EUR7.8bn), M&G (EUR8.42bn), and Credit Suisse (EUR7.57bn). “Only two of the 10 largest asset management firms by inflows since the beginning of the year did not stand out for the popularity of their bond funds: Aberdeen was the largest beneficiary of an interest in emerging market equities, while M&G profited from the popularity of allocation funds,” Morningstar notes. The full study is attached (PDF).

In the final days of 2012, emerging markets equity funds were the only category to post significant inflows. In the week ending on 26 December, global and Asia ex Japan emerging market equity funds both earned net inflows of about USD1bn, according to EPFR Global. Equity Funds absorbed USD3.6 billion as retail investors again refused to chase gains, especially in developed markets. Outside the fixed income universe, Mexico, Colombia and Philippines Equity, Long/Short, Derivatives, Real Estate and Healthcare/Biotechnology Sector and Dividend Equity Funds also posted record inflows while Canada, UK, France, Germany and Taiwan Equity Funds set new outflow marks. EPFR Global-tracked Bond Funds, which averaged net inflows of USD9 billion a week on their way to a new full year inflow record, took in only USD419 million during the week ending December 26. But for the year as a whole, several categories will set new records, including US, High Yield, Emerging Markets, Mortgage Backed, Canada and Australia Bond Funds.

The Vice Fund from USA Mutuals, which invests in companies active in tobacco, alcohol, gambling and weapons, knows no crisis, Fondionline reports. It finished the year 2012 with gains of 21.49% (as of 18 December), beating the Standard & Poor’s index by nearly four points. The two largest positions of the fund are two tobacco companies: Altria and Lorillard.

Dalton Strategic Partners has appointed Nabeel Mughal, a former Henderson analyst, as lead manager of its North American equity strategy, Citywire Global reports. The appointment follows the departure of Peter Kaye, who left the fund last month, and is expected to join Fidelity in first quarter 2013. Mughal joined Dalton in 2009.

DoubleLine Capital LP recruits Brendt Stallings and Husam Nazer as the firm expands its product line-up into equity investment strategies. They join as portfolio managers and partners in DoubleLine Equity LP, a newly created affiliate of DoubleLine.Stallings and Nazer were previously group managing directors at TCW, the highest title for investment managers at the firm. There they managed USD5 billion invested in common stocks in several successful strategies, which were both broadly invested and sectorfocused. DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach, who previously served as chief investment officer of TCW and headed that firm’s largest investment group, launched DoubleLine in December 2009 with more than 40 of his former colleagues. Today DoubleLine employs more than 80 people, is majority-owned by its employees and manages more than USD53 billion in asset allocation, bond and now stock strategies.

Christian Pierotti on 2 January joined the French Federation of Insurance Companies (FFSA), and will become responsible for the Office of European and International Affairs. Pierotti will report to President Bernard Spitz and Director General Jean-François Lequoy, and will be responsible for the development of the FFSA office in Brussels and of relationships with European and international interlocutors of the Federation, the FFSA says in a statement. Pierotti previously served as vice president for Public and Regulatory Affairs at AEGON NV, after serving from 2005 to 2008 as Director of Government Affairs for Europe at PMI Mortgage Insurance Limited. Pierotti had previously been Director of International Affairs and Institutional Relationships for the European Insurance Committee (CEA), beginning in 1999.

MidAmerican Energy, a company dedicated to the energy projects of the US investor Warren Buffett, will spend USD2bn to USD2.5nb to invest in solar projects in California, which will be constructed and operated by SunPower, 66% owned by the French firm Total, Les Echos reports.

2012 was a vintage year for shareholder activism in the United States, the Financial Times reports. Many activists successfully put pressure on companies to make them distribute dividends or make operations, and several large companies, such as P&G, were genuinely besieged. At the same time, with returns of more than 20% per year in some cases, activist funds saw a wave of subscriptions. At the end of third quarter, USD57bn had been dedicated to activist strategies, compared with USD51bn at the end of last year, and USD32bn at the end of 2008, HFR reports.

The Eurekahedge index gained 1% in December, bringing its performance for the year as a whole to 5.63%. The MSCI World index in December gained 2.28%, and for the year as a whole shows gains of 13.75%. The largest gains were for funds dedicated to emerging markets, with gains of 11.2% for Latin America funds, and for distressed debt funds (12.2%), followed by hedge funds specialised in fixed income and relative value strategies, which also posted double-digit returns. Hedge fund assets last year increased by USD75bn, to USD1.78trn as of the end of the year. Net inflows totalled only USD19bn. New hedge fund creations last year slowed to 959, at a time when there were 860 closures, a level not seen since the outbreak of the financial crisis.

A Lyxor ETF investing in Italian government short-term bonds, Lyxor ETF MTS BTP 1-3Y Italy Government Bond, has topped EUR100m in assets, Bluerating reports. It was launched on 14 November 2012 on the Italian stock exchange, and on 17 December on Euronext.

OCM Wealth Management is launching a discretionary asset management platform for independent financial advisers, Money Marketing reports. Platform Plus will unit 15 British providers, including Provident International, Curtis Bank and Aegon.

The Italian asset management firm Anima, va its parent company Asset Management Holding (AMH), has completed its acquisition of the asset management activities of the Italian bank Credito Valtellinese (Creval), representing assets of EUR2.5bn, plus EUR600m in third-party products. The operation was announced in August. AMH, which has EUR35bn in assets under management as of the end of June 2012, has acquired all capital in Aperta, the asset management firm of Creval, and its 70% stake in LuxGuest, its Luxembourg asset management firm, for a total of EUR33m (EUR27m for Aperta and EUR6m for LuxGuest). Creval has also subscribed to a capital increase reserved for AMH for EUR16m, which will allow it to acquire 2.8% of capital. The operation allows Credito Valtellinese to outsource its asset management activities, while AMH, via Anima, strengthens its assets under management and pursues its strategy to become a key asset management partner of banks. The firm already works for Monte dei Paschi di Siena and Banca Popolare di Milano, who are among its largest shareholders, and who created the firm along with the private equity firm Clessidra.

Henderson Global Invetors has lost the management contract for its Asian Growth trust, with GBP286m in assets, to Schroders, Investment Week reports. The trust had been managed by Andrew Beal at Henderson since September 2005, but in the past few years performance had been patchy. The vehicle will now be managed by Robin Parbrook and King Fuei, both based in Hong Kong. They already manage the Schroder ISF Asia Total Return fund.

The CEO of Winton Capital Management, Anthony Daniell, will resign this new year, Financial News can reveal. However, he will remain at the hedge fund firm. Tony Fenner-Leitao will replace him as CEO.

The insurer ACA Financial Guaranty Corp. has filed a lawsuit against the hedge fund company of John Paulson for allegedly inducing the company to insure part of a mortgage-linked investment that soured, the Wall Street Journal reports. The agreement at the centre of the lawsuit is a CDO entitled Abacus 2007-aCI, the same one which was cited in a lawsuit filed against Goldman by the Securities and Exchange Commission in 2010.

The Stability Law 2013, passed last week by the Italian parliament, excludes ethical finance from the financial transaction tax, Bluerating reports. The new regulations state that transactions related to products and services qualified as ethical or socially responsible will be exempt from the tax.