En fonction de leur degré de capitalisation mesuré par le ratio Tier 1, JP Morgan arrive en tête du palmarès des banques les plus solides du monde établi par « The Banker » cité par la tribune. L’établissement arrive devant Bank of America, Citigroup, RBS et HSBC.

Selon la dernière étude de Cerulli Associates (Quantitative Update: Global Markets 2009), l’encours mondial de la gestion d’actifs était tombé fin décembre à 43,2 billions de dollars contre 53 billions un an plus tôt. Ce niveau est néanmoins supérieur aux 42,4 billions de 2005. Cerulli constate que s’il a fallu près de trois ans au secteur de la gestion d’actifs pour amasser 10 billions de dollars d’actifs supplémentaires, il lui aura fallu moins de six mois pour perdre ce montant. Et il aura probablement besoin de cinq ans pour reconstituer ce montant : les projections portent sur une nouvelle baisse de 600 milliards de dollars cette année, suivie d’une progression à partir de 2010 (44,4 billions) pour atteindre 56,5 billions en 2013. Cela présuppose un taux moyen de croissance annuelle de l’ordre de 5,5 %.Le plongeon des encours a plombé les chiffres d’affaires des gestionnaires d’actifs, qui a diminué l’an dernier de 6,8 % à 155,7 milliards de dollars, mais il faut s’attendre à un effet plus dévastateur encore du fait que les investisseurs se tournent vers des produits moins risqués et donc moins chargés que les fonds d’actions. Selon FTfm, d’ailleurs, la part d’encours investie en actions a diminué l’an dernier à 40,7 % du total contre 52,9 % l’année précédente.

Selon la Tribune, la restructuration de la dette du conglomérat saoudien Saad et le gel des actifs de son président, le milliardaire Maan al-Sanea, risquent d’entraîner des pertes pour la douzaine de banques qui ont arrangé 6,3 milliards de dollars de prêts syndiqués pour le groupe. Parmi elles figurent Citigroup, BNP Paribas, HSBC, Standard Chartered et JP Morgan.

Après Bank of America, Morgan Stanley et UBS, c’est au tour de Citigroup de compenser la baisse des bonus annuels par une augmentation des salaires fixes, indique la Tribune. Selon le « New York Times » cité par le quotidien, les augmentations de salaire pourraient aller jusqu'à 50 % dans certaines activités essentielles comme la banque d’investissement ou le trading. Objectif : juguler la fuite des talents. En Europe, la modération prévaut côté salaires. La fuite des talents n’est pas à l’ordre du jour.

Selon L’Agefi suisse, le fonds d’investissements américain KKR a dévoilé mercredi des modifications aux modalités de son projet d’introduction à la Bourse de New York, prévoyant notamment une plus grande participation de sa filiale européenne KPE, cotée à la Bourse d’Amsterdam. KKR caresse depuis juillet 2008 l’idée de faire son entrée à la Bourse de New York, rappelle le quotidien. Mais le fonds, dont la valeur des actifs sous gestion a baissé à 47 milliards de dollars contre 53,2 milliards en 2007, a depuis repoussé l’opération à plusieurs reprises. KKR, qui prévoit une entrée en Bourse à New York via une absorption de KPE et un retrait de la filiale de la cote à Amsterdam, a fait une proposition plus alléchante pour les actionnaires de cette dernière.

Entre fin mars et aujourd’hui, les actifs sous gestion des fonds Europe de l’Est et Russie d’East Capital se sont considérablement accrus, à la fois en raison de l’effet de marché et à la suite de souscriptions nettes, dont beaucoup sont venues de clients retail nordiques, a indiqué Marcus Svedberg, chief economist du gestionnaire suédois. Actuellement, précise Jean-Marie Laporte, directeur du bureau de Paris, le fonds Europe de l’Est doit afficher quelque 350 millions d’euros contre 272 millions fin mars, tandis que le fonds emblématique de la maison, le fonds Russie a dû dépasser les 500 millions d’euros.Il s’agit dans les deux cas de portefeuilles assez diversifiés avec environ 150 lignes, parce qu’East Capital, présent sur place, ne se cantonne pas aux recommandations des analystes sell-side mais investit aussi dans de moyennes capitalisations locales. Marcus Svedberg estime aussi qu’avec un ratio cours-bénéfices de 6,2 après une hausse de 65 % (et une pointe à plus de 80 % il y a quelques semaines), la Russie reste bon marché. D’une manière générale, il faut s’attendre à une nouvelle correction sur les marchés d’Europe orientale cet été, puis sur une remontée de long terme mais moins forte que par le passé. East Capital favorise les banques les plus saines, les produits de consommation, la distribution et certaines utilities.A noter par ailleurs que le gestionnaire suédois devrait lancer prochainement un Special Opportunities Fund de 100 millions de dollars enregistré aux îles Caïman. Ce produit, non conforme à la directive OPCVM III, sera notamment investi dans des entreprises «sérieusement bon marché», le plus souvent des sociétés de bonne qualité apportées en nantissement aux banques par des oligarques surendettés et traitées comme des «distressed».

Axa España a lancé mercredi le plan d'épargne retraite Pensiones Privilege qui permet au souscripteur de choisir son type d’investissement et de passer des actions aux obligations tout en garantissant le capital investi indépendammment des décisions de placement qui auront été prises, rapporte Cinco Días. Selon Luis María Sáez de Jaúregui, directeur des activités vie, retraite et services financiers, ce nouveau produit combine les avantage des «variable annuities» et le régime fiscal préférentiel des Planes de Previsión Asegurado (PPA). La souscription initiale minimum est fixée à 3.000 euros.

Pour le compte de son fonds dédié Deka-S-Property Fund N°1, Deka Immobilien Investment a affecté 28,1 millions d’euros à l’acquisition d’un immeuble de bureaux de 15.000 mètres carrés, viale Jenner à Milan. Le vendeur est la société de gestion de fonds immobiliers BNP Paribas REIM SGR. L’immeuble est entièrement loué à l’opérateur de téléphonie mobile Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM).

According to the most recent survey from Cerulli Associates (Quantitative Update: Global Markets 2009), global assets in asset management had fallen as of the end of December to USD43.2trn, from USD53trn one year earlier. This level is nonetheless higher than the USD42.4trn under management at the end of 2005. Cerulli observes that the asset management sector took nearly three years to build up USD10trn in new assets, but it needed less than six months to lose this much volume. And it will probably need another five years to gain the volume back: projections predict a further decrease of USD600bn this year, followed by growth beginning in 2010 (USD44.4trn), up to a volume of USD56.5trn in 2013. This supposes an average annual growth rate of about 5.5%. Plummeting asset levels have dragged down revenues for asset management firms, which fell last year by 6.8% to USD155.7bn, but an even more devastating effect is to be expected due to the fact that investors are turning to products which are less risky and thus less costly than equities funds. FTfm reports that the percentage of assets invested in equities fell last year to 40.7% of total assets, from 52.9% the previous year.

In an article on the Fund Forum in Monaco and the new questions which asset management firms are said to be facing about their business models, Handelsblatt reports that Benjamin Phillips, a partner at Casey Quirk & Associates, predicts that the winning asset management firms in the future will be those that focus on retirement planning products and products aimed at high net worth clients. Amin Rajan, head of the research agency Create, says institutional investors are now seeking to invest in global equities portfolios, tracker funds and emerging markets products, commodities, and private equity. Retail investors, for their part, are primarily interested in protected-capital products and performance. These requirements overall are very far from what managers are offering.

According to sources familiar with the matter, Christopher Hohn is now in takls with investors in the hedge fund The Children’s Investment Fund Management (TCI, USD8bn in assets), and is reportedly offering them more attractive terms, or to unfreeze some of their assets. He had managed to impose lock-ups of 3 or 5 years. Now, the fund may create a new class of shares with a lack-up of only 6 months and quarterly liquidity. Hohn is also considering charging performance commissions on the basis of performance over a period of several years, instead of on yearly performance. In the first five months of the year, the TCI fund lost 7%.

The asset management industry will be a site of increased polarisation in 2009, as the largest companies will lose weight, and the smaller firms will continue to decline. In its annual study of the British asset management industry, the independent consultant Hymans Robertson predicts that the trend of rising staff numbers observed in the past three years will be reversed, and a wave of layoffs will affect the front office. Hymans Robertson also says it remains bullish on active management, adding that many active managers have earned very good returns compared with last year.

La Tribune reports that as the Saudi conglomerate Saad restructures its debt and the assets of its chairman, the billionaire Maan al-Sanea, have been frozen, a dozen banks which arranged USD6.3bn in syndicated loans to the group are at risk of losing their money. Among the banks are Citigroup, BNP Paribas, HSBC, Standard Chartered and JP Morgan.

After Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and UBS, Citigroup has become the next US bank to compensate for cuts in annual bonuses by increasing fixed salaries, La Tribune reports. According to the New York Times, cited by La Tribune, pay raises are as much as 50% in essential areas such as investment banking and trading. The goal is to prevent talent from leaving the bank. In Europe, moderation prevails in terms of pay scales, and talented personnel leaving their jobs is not a major issue.

On the basis of its degree of capitalisation as measured by Tier 1 owners’ equity ratio, JP Morgan ranks as the most solid bank in the world, as rated by the Banker, and reported in La Tribune. JP Morgan is followed by Bank of America, Citigroup, RBS and HSBC.

La Tribune reports that the SEC, the US regulatory authority, is considering toughening the rules for money market funds. The regulator may forbid the purchase of illiquid assets and the imposition of a 5% limit on their exposure to cash and highly liquid assets. The average maturity date for debt in the portfolio may be reduced from 90 to 60 days. In addition, regular stress testing and monthly reporting may be instituted.

At the conclusion of a 60-day comment period, the SEC is planning to require money market funds to maintain higher levels of liquidity and to hold assets which are both highly liquid and of the best possible credit rating in order to ensure that they are able to reimburse investors rapidly, the Wall Street Journal reports. One of the points that worries professionals is a proposed rule that funds which sell shares to institutional investors need to have more available liquidity than those whose subscribers are retail investors: specialists say that it is very difficult to draw a clear distinction between the two classes of subscribers.

Cheyne Capital Management (UK) LLP has announced the appointment of Jorge Giampaoli as a partner and manager of the new fund Cheyne Equity Macro Fund. Giampaoli joins from Morgan Stanley, where he worked for eight years and served as head of trading as principal for European equities before joining Cheyne Capital.

According to the first study of German data for the five-year period from May 2003-May 2008, for EUR50m in assets invested in 52 master funds and 430 sub-funds, German institutional investors are paying too much for management of their investments. The management firm Universal Investment and the Otto Beisheim School of Management determined that, although institutional investors prefer active management, managers provided them with portfolios with lower levels of risk, whose evolution was close to that of the Dax, EuroStoxx or Dow Jones indexes. Annual tracking error was 1.31, which is very low in international terms, and the trend has been steadily downward. Meanwhile, master funds in the period under review generated average returns of 6.58% per year, while the market indexes gained 6.87%. The authors of the study estimate that if institutionals had used ETFs or index-based mandates as the core of their portfolios, and genuinely active mandates as satellites, they could have saved as much as 25% of their management fees.

Citigroup has restricted negotiations for a sale of its Japanese asset management affiliate, Nikko Asset Management, to three potential buyers, the Wall Street Journal reports. The firm is the third-largest Japanese asset management firm, and its sale is expected to bring in more than USD1bn for the bank. The contenders still in the running are T&D Holdings, Sumotomo Trust & Banking and Bank of New York Mellon, and sources familiar with the matter say that bids are already higher than the vendor had initially expected.

Le Temps reoprts that the former head of the products division at Julius Baer is founding his own management firm aimed at institutional investors, entitled Dynapartners, to profit from the changes now taking place in asset management. “A consolidation movement will take place in the next few years,” says Ben Wittmann, cited by Le Temps. Switzerland is home to 2,600 small asset management firms, which manage an average of CHF300m with an average of five employees. Dynapartners is planning to grow organically and through acquisitions, and aims to manage CHF5bn to CHF7bn with 25 employees in five years’ time.

On Thursday morning, UBS announced that Chi-Won Yoon will be taking over as Chairman & CEO Asia Pacific and as a member of the board of directors, effective immediately. He replaces Rory Tapner, who is leaving the group after 25 years. Chi-Won Yoon will retain his responsibilities as head of securities for the UBS investment bank in the Asia Pacific region (APAC) and as country head and CEO for the Hong Kong branch. UBS employs 9,500 people in the APAC region, in investment banking, wealth management, and asset management.

Deka Immobilien Investment has spent EUR28.1m of its dedicated fund Deka-S-Property Fund N°1 to acquire a 15,000 square-metre office property on the viale Jenner in Milan. The vendor is the real estate fund management firm BNP Paribas REIM SGR. The property is wholly leased to the mobile telephone operator Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM).

The alternative management firm Altira Group has announced that in recent weeks, it has concluded a number of cooperation agreements with traditional open-ended management firms. Since 2 June, its affiliate VCH has been advising the SRI fund ÖkoSelect from Hansainvest (an affiliate of the insurer Signal-Iduna), a product specialised in renewable energy. Meanwhile, the Altira affiliate Patriarch Multi-Manager, which focuses on funds of funds for use as savings, has launched a new equities fund of funds, in partnership with the institutional management division of Berenberg Bank and the management firm DJE Kapital. The product is administered by DJE, and 10% of its assets are allocated to Berenberg Bank for active risk management. The risk is managed by Patriarch Multi-Manager, which is cooperating for the first time in the management of a product aimed at retail clients.

«Par le passé, nous utilisions une approche géographique des pays de l’Est, auxquels nous avons adjoint la Turquie. Mais, à présent, nous avons adopté plutôt une analyse en fonction de la situation économique de chaque pays, étant entendu que, d’une manière générale, ces trente pays vont connaître cette année une baisse de PIB de l’ordre de 5 %... sauf peut-être l’Azerbaïdjan, dont la croissance tombera à 10-15 % contre 35 %. Pour 2010, il faut s’attendre globalement à une croissance de 1-2 %. Lorsque la reprise sera effectivement revenue, la région devrait pouvoir afficher des taux de croissance de 4-4,5 %, ce qui est plus sain et soutenable que les plus de 5 % de moyenne constatés pour la période 1999-2008», a déclaré mercredi à Paris Marcus Svedberg, chief economist d’East Capital.La nouvelle classification distingue entre trois catégories de pays, même si, pour l’instant, la différenciation est ténue. Pour Marcus Svedberg, il y a tout d’abord les pays à forts déséquilibres qui ne vont pas profiter d’une croissance des exportations et de la demande intérieure ou qui se débattent avec le FMI, comme les républiques baltes, l’Ukraine, les pays des Balkans occidentaux et d’Asie Centrale. Ils risquent une reprise en «L», donc une profonde et longue récession couplée ou non à des dévaluations.Dans un deuxième groupe, l'économiste en chef d’East Capital place les petits pays affligés d’une forte dépendance vis-à-vis de l'étranger et de la conjoncture mondiale, qui connaîtraient plustôt une reprise en «U». C’est le cas de pays comme la Sloavquie (où Volkswagen pèse 15 % du PIB), la Moldavie, l’Albanie, le Tadjikistan, le Kirgizhstan, voire même la République tchèque. Ces pays sont tributaires de la conjoncture en Europe occidentale et en Allemagne, mais aussi des investissements directs étrangers (IDE) et des transferts de leurs travailleurs immigrés (dont le retour risquerait au surplus de causer des problèmes supplémentaires de chômage).Enfin, Marcus Svedberg place dans la catégorie des pays qui pourraient connaître une croissance relativement rapide les économies les plus importantes de la région qui affichent peu de déséquilibres, voire sont à l'équilibre. C’est en particulier le cas de la Russie, de la Turquie et de la Pologne qui, avec la République tchèque, représentent 65 % du PIB des pays d’Europe orientale. Ces pays ont de marchés du travail très souples, ils ont les moyens de stimuler en interne la croissance, ils sont des banques saines, des déficits budgétaires et des opérations courantes peu importants ainsi que des marchés intérieurs de grande taille qui les rendent moins dépendants de l’exportation.

Selon le site internet de L’Echo, JPMorgan trône désormais en tête du palmarès des banques les plus solides du monde. C’est ce qui ressort du nouveau classement du Top 1 000 World Banks établi par le magazine «The Banker». Pourtant, ce classement ne fait pas oublier que les profits des banques ont chuté de 85 % l’an dernier. Le secteur a engrangé 115 milliards de dollars contre 781 milliards en 2007. Le rendement de leurs fonds propres a plongé, tombant à 2,69 % en 2008 contre 20 % en 2007, selon l’estimation réalisée par le magazine. Royal Bank of Scotland prend la «pole position» d’un autre classement: celui des établissements ayant subi les plus lourdes pertes. Avec 59,3 milliards de dollars de pertes en 2008, RBS éclipse Citigroup, qui en a enregistré pour 53 milliards de dollars, et Wells Fargo, troisième avec 47,8 milliards.

According to the website of the newspaper L’Echo, JPMorgan is now the most solid bank in the world, according to the new Top 1,000 World Banks rankings by the magazine “The Banker.” The rankings do not fail to take into account that banking profits fell by 85% last year. The sector earned USD115bn, compared with USD781bn in 2007. Returns on owners’ equity fell to 2.69% in 2008, from 20%, in 2007, according to estimates by the magazine. Royal Bank of Scotland takes pole position in another ranking: banks which have sustained the heaviest losses. With USD59.3bn lost in 2008, RBS eclipses Citigroup, which lost USD53bn, and Wells Fargo, in third place, with losses of USD47.8bn.

The Korean management firm Mirae Asset Global Investments, which is beginning to develop activities in France from its London offices, will soon be registering funds in France, in order to make them available to retail investors, Hendrik Cosijn von Ripperda, director of institutional distribution for Europe at Mirae, tells Newsmanagers at the Fund Forum International in Monaco. In the past few months, the Asian management firm has made some efforts in marketing to make itself better known to institutional investors in France. But now, the firm would like to approach the retail market via platforms. Its funds, which are largely focused on emerging markets, are expected to be registered this autumn.

Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), the manager of the government pension fund, has launched a call for bids for mandates to manage developed and emerging market equities. The initial mandates will be for assets ranging from USD50m to USD250m. The affiliate of the Bank of Norway states on its website that all the mandates will be for publicly traded equities. Currently, NBIM is seeking managers for mandates to invest in Thailand, Greater China, South Korea, India, Russia, Turkey, Greece, Japanese small caps, Brazil, South Africa, equities indexes (Americas, Europe, and the Pacific), and sectoral mandates, both global and focused on the United States. Completed applications should be addressed to eqmandates@nbim.no.

Between the end of March and the present, assets under management in funds focused on eastern Europe and Russia at East Capital have increased considerably, due both to positive market effects and to continuing net subscriptions, much of which have come from Scandinavian retail clients, says Marcus Qvedberg, chief economist at the Swedish asset management firm. Currently, says Jean-Marie Laporte, director of the Paris office, the Eastern Europe fund now has roughly EUR350m in assets, compared with EUR272m at the end of March, while the firm’s emblematic fund, the Russia fund, must have more than EUR500m. Both funds have relatively well-diversified portfolios, with about 150 positions each, as East Capital, which is present in the markets it invests in, does not confine itself to the recommendations of sell-side analysts, but also invests in local midcaps. Svedberg also estimates that with a price/earnings ratio of 6.2, following a 65% increase (and a peak a few weeks ago up more than 80%), Russia continues to be attractively priced. In general, more correction is to be expected on the markets of eastern Europe this summer, and then a subsequent rebound in the long term, albeit less strong than in the past. East Capital favours healthy banks, consumer products, retail, and some utilities. The Swedish manager will also soon launch a Special Opportunities Fund with USD100m in assets, registered in the Cayman Islands. The product, which is not compliant with UCITS III, will invest largely in “extremely inexpensive” businesses, which are most often high-quality companies repossessed by banks in their infancy from over-indebted oligarchs, and then traded as “distressed” businesses.