Selon Morgan Stanley, les hedge funds pourraient être confrontés cette année à des rachats de 30 % de leur encours, qui vaisserait ainsi à 950 milliards de dollars, soit son niveau le plus bas depuis 2004, rapporte Funds People. Les retraits seraient surtout imputable aux clients américains durant le premier semestre.
Dans un entretien à L"Agefi suisse, le professeur Nuno Fernandes de l"IMD estime que «la controverse autour des fonds souverains est aujourd"hui davantage politique que financière, puisque leurs investissements dans le capital actions des entreprises tendent à être positivement valorisés par le marché. Notre étude, qui prend en compte plus de 21.000 investissements des fonds souverains dans plus de 7700 entreprises entre 2002 et 2007, démontre que la valeur des sociétés dans lesquelles ils apportent du capital augmente significativement de 15% à 20%. Nous avons également pu constater une hausse importante en termes de performance opérationnelle. Ces résultats suggèrent donc que, contrairement aux arguments selon lesquels les fonds souverains exproprieraient les investisseurs et poursuivraient un agenda politique malintentionné, ils contribuent en fait à la création d"une valeur de long terme pour les actionnaires».
Les quelque 7.800 fonds de pension britanniques à prestations définies (DB schemes) suivis régulièrement par le Pension Protection Fund (PPF) accusaient fin février un déficit record de 218,7 milliards de livres contre 190,6 milliards un mois plus tôt, rapporte Professional Pensions. Un an auparavant, le sous-financement se limitait à 67,1 milliards de livres. L’excédent des fonds en surfinancement a fondu à 9,4 milliards contre 13,5 milliards fin janvier 2009 et 42,6 milliards fin février de l’an dernier.
Selon l’Agefi qui se réfère à une étude Eurekahedge, les fonds alternatifs ont enregistré un volume de sorties nettes de capitaux «sensiblement» moindre en février, à 11 milliards de dollars (données partielles), contre 30 milliards un mois auparavant. # En termes de stratégies de gestion, les fonds d’arbitrage (+0,98%) ou de taux (+0,67%) notamment ont de nouveau affiché des performances positives en février#, précise notamment le quotidien numérique
Le CEO de J.P. Morgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, a déclaré mercredi qu’il est optimiste tant pour l’avenir de son établissement que pour celui de l'économie américaine, rapporte The Wall Street Journal. Il a précisé que JP Morgan a été bénéficiaire en janvier et en février.
Sir Allen Stanford refuse de coopérer avec les enquêteurs du gouvernement américain dans l"affaire de la fraude de 8 milliards de dollars qui porte son nom, rapporte le Financial Times. L"intéressé invoque le cinquième amendement. Il est apparu, par ailleurs, que des dirigeants de Stanford s"étaient inquiétés de l"exactitude des états financiers du groupe quelques semaines avant que les régulateurs américains agissent.
Un verdict doit être rendu ce vendredi sur la plainte du procureur de New York qui veut forcer la Bank of America à livrer le nom des bénéficiaires de 3,62 milliards de dollars de primes chez Merrill Lynch, établissement qui a perdu 15,64 milliards de dollars au T4, rapporte the Wall Street Journal. En tous cas, selon Andrew Cuomo, le procureur, un des avocats de Merrill Lynch a assuré dans une lettre du 24 novembre au président d’une commission de la Chambre des Représentants qu’aucune décision n’avait encore été prise sur les bonus, alors que le comité des rémunérations avait déjà voté depuis deux semaines les bonus qui devaient être versés en décembre.
Selon le Figaro, les entreprises du CAC 40 ont réalisé un bénéfice cumulé d’environ 65 milliards d"euros en 2008, soit un net recul, de l"ordre de 35%, par rapport au millésime précédent. #La chute des profits se concentre sur une poignée d"entreprises dont les résultats nets ont été faussés par des éléments exceptionnels (EDF ou France Télécom notamment), et sur deux secteurs : la finance et l"automobile#, précise le quotidien en relevant que Axa, BNP Paribas, Crédit agricole SA, Société générale) engrangent environ 7 milliards d"euros contre 18,5 milliards en 2007. En 2009, tous secteurs confondus, les analystes anticipent une baisse des profits de 30%, rappelle le Figaro.
Selon l’Agefi, citant Thomson Reuters, le private equity dans son ensemble et le LBO ont respectivement diminués de 24,9% et de 26,4% durant l’année 2008, du fait de la chute des valeurs entrées en portefeuille et de la baisse des valorisations liée aux actifs cédés dans l’année. Toutefois, sur le moyen terme, la donne financière du secteur reste correcte, précise le quotidien numérique.
Selon le Financial Times, Paris cherche à ouvrir le capital d"Areva à des fonds souverains du Moyen-Orient afin de renforcer son influence politique et ses perspectives dans la région. Des négociations ont débuté concernant des prises de participations minoritaires entre 1 % et 5 % du capital.
Selon l’Agefi, prenant l’avis de professionnels, les activités des banques françaises dans des pays comme Andorre, Monaco ou le Liechtenstein ne sont pas «déterminantes». Toutefois, un élargissement de la liste noire à la Suisse serait notamment préjudiciable à la BNP Paribas, bien positionné dans le domaine de la banque privée en Suisse, précise le quotidien numérique en citant un «spécialiste».
The IntercontinentalExchange Inc. (ICE) has opened its compensation platform for credit default swaps (CDS), IEC Trust, for business. The platform was issued an operating license by the SEC on Friday, the Wall Street Journal reports.
Clients of Safra Group have been offered a package of compensation for the money they lost in the fraud orchestrated by Bernard Madoff Investment Securities, the Financial Times reports. Safra Group denies that it was proactive in promoting Madoff funds. But investors and their lawyers have told the FT that Safra representatives in the United States and Europe actively promoted a fund known as Zeus Partners Limited to clients in Latin America.
Following client redemptions estimated at 20% of total assets in the second half of 2008, hedge funds will pay out redemptions amounting to a further 15% to 30% of their assets in 2009, Le Temps reports. Simon Davies, chairman of Threadneedle, says one of the causes of these redemptions is the dependence of hedge funds on private banks who include them in their portfolios. ?Liquid managers like us wind up getting all the redemption demands, to compensate for freezes at other funds,? Davies explains to the Swiss newspaper. As a result, Davies predicts, ?alternative management firms will seek to reduce their dependence on funds of funds and banks to capture new inflows from clients.? However, he admits, banks will ?remain important as they provide access to smaller investors and private clients,? Le Temps adds.
All regular money market OPCVM funds in the product range from Crédit Agricole Asset Management (CAAM) are now undergoing a process of ESG (environment, social and governance) filtering, said Patrick Simeon, head of bond management, on Tuesday. In principle, they satisfy all the criteria for IDEAM, the provider of extra-financial analysis for the group. Unlike other promoters, who have confronted some deficiencies relatively recently in the area of transparency, CAAM does not need to launch new products which are specifically ESG-aware. The management firm can simply incorporate an ESG constraint which will hardly modify its existing funds. The first will be a money market fund in the ?credit? category, probably by the end of first half.This type of product appears to interest a fairly varied client base, which includes institutionals, businesses, pension funds, and client associative structures of the Crédit Agricole and LCL networks.
IPE.com reports that the French national pension fund, the Fonds de réserve pour les retraites (FRR), is still seeking a management firm for an EUR800m US equities mandate, after choosing seven managers for equities mandates totalling EUR2.3bn.
?Regular money market products have become a segment of excellence in management at CAAM,? and are clearly a winner in the current economic environment, in which ?liquidity and security are the most important factors for performance in the strict sense,? Pascal Blanqué, director of management at CAAM Group, stated on Tuesday.Currently, assets under management in regular money market funds from Crédit Agricole Asset Management (CAAM) have a total of about EUR64bn, compared with EUR40.18bn at the beginning of the crisis, in late June 2007. That represents an increase of more than 59.7%, according to Theirry Darmon, deputy director of Euro and credit fixed income, and Patrick Wimeon, head of money market management. At the end of 2007, assets totalled EUR62.69bn. As of the end of February, when assets totalled EUR63.41bn, these assets were distributed, according to an increasing ?defensiveness,? with 10.26% in Euro zone government bond products, 18.69% in AAA rated debt (Euro zone government bonds and equivalent corporate and bank debt with a rating higher than BBB and short maturities), 25.07% in intermediary credit (the same categories of assets plus AAA-rated ABS, which are now an extinct class), 27.94% in credit (including intermediary credit plus BBB-rated credit with short maturities), and 18.03% in credit (which includes credit, and BBB-rated credit with longer maturities). The range includes 26 master funds and 24 feeder funds.
According to a survey by Merrill Lynch and the London-based research fund Campden Research, family offices have widely withdrawn from equities and taken refuge in cash, Le Temps reports. ?Cash allocations have risen from 5% to 26.1% between 2007 and 2008, while equities have fallen from 34% to 18.3%,? the newspaper reports.
Handelsblatt reports that LGT Bank, owned by the royal family of Liechtenstein, has sold its fiduciary specialist affiliate LGT Treuhand, which was at the origin of a recent tax evasion scandal in Germany, to First Advisory Group, headed by the lawyer Herbert Batliner, who has also been behind several legal proceedings in several countries.
The Euro, reinvigorated by the wave of optimism which provoked strong increases on the global financial markets on Tuesday, 10 March, has risen against the US dollar to USD1.2632, up from USD1.2602 on Monday.
Banco Popolare has become the first Italian bank to turn to government assistance, the Financial Times reports. The bank will issue EUR1.45bn in bonds, which will be subscribed to by the govenrment.
Banco Sabadell has completed its audit of assets in the portfolio of its real estate fund Sabadell BS Inmobiliario, which will result in depreciations of 4.9%, less than the 7.5% write-downs for the portfolio of the Santander Banif Inmobiliario, Expansión reports. The BS Inmobiliario fund is the third-largest Spanish real estate fund, with assets of EUR960m.
The Cominvest brand, which was acquired by Allianz Global Investors Deutschland on 12 January of this year, will disappear at the end of 2010; this year, employees in Frankfurt and Luxembourg will be grouped together and the IT systems will be harmonised. According to Horst Eich, one of the two CEOs at AGI, there will be some redundancies. According to consultants, a reduction of 30% to personnel at Cominvest (currently 600 employees) may be expected, Handelsblatt reports.Eich has also announced that ?a triple-digit number? of retail funds from AGI and Cominvest (currently 500 funds in total) will be closed or merged. AGI is interested in Cominvest’s research and its expertise in diversified funds aimed at institutional investors.
Economic research is questioning many common assumptions about equities, Le Temps reports. In an article entitled ?Are stocks really less volatile in the long run?? Lubos Pastor and Robert Starnbaugh claim that the volatility of equities is actually higher in the long-term than in the short term. Over the past 206 years on the stock markets (1802-2007), volatility has been 21 to 53 points higher over 30 years than over one year.
Alain Grisay, CEO of F&C Asset Management, was celebrating the end of 15 months of uncertainty on Tuesday, as Friends Provident announced that it would distribute its 52% stake in the management firm to its own shareholders by mid-2009, after negotiations with potential buyers fell through, the Financial Times reports. The management firm estimates that uncertainties about control of its capital cost it GBP2bn in withdrawals by consultants concerned about instability.
Fund People relays reports in Expansión that the retirement savings supervisory committee at Telefónica has instructed the management firm, Fonditel, to adopt a more defensive, transparent and liquid investment policy, with risk controls that offer more guarantees and protection. As of 31 December, assets totalled EUR3.09bn, of which 38% were in equities, 14% in alternative assets, and the rest in bonds. After losses of 26.86% in 2008, the plan has lost a further 6.97% since the beginning of the year.
According to the US headhunting group Options Group, as many as 20,000 jobs may be lost in alternative management this year, which would represent 14% of total personnel, following 10,000 jobs lost in 2008, Fondsprofessional reports, citing Bloomberg.Hedge Fund Research reports that 920 hedge funds, or 12% of all funds, were closed last year. Of the 6,800 funds remaining, 70% posted losses in 2008, meaning that they will not be able to charge performance commissions until they have made up the lost ground.