De nombreux différends persistent, même sur l'union bancaire, la proposition la plus avancée

Entourée d’un aléa principal lié à la crise de la dette en zone euro, la croissance du PIB français se limiterait à 0,4% en 2012 selon l’Insee

Carlyle resterait seul en lice pour monter un MBO, où l’ancienne direction de MetWest reprendrait la gestion de la filiale de la Société Générale

Les autorités chinoises prépareraient de nouvelles mesures destinées à renforcer les flux échangés en yuan entre le pays et Hong Kong, selon le journal qui cite des sources proches. Le président Hu Jintao pourrait ainsi profiter de sa visite de trois jours à Hong Kong qui débute vendredi pour annoncer notamment un assouplissement de la limite quotidienne de conversion de 20.000 yuans pour les résidents hongkongais. Pékin envisage également un assouplissement des règles du programme RQFII pour les sociétés étrangères souhaitant utiliser des yuans levés à Hong Kong pour investir sur les marchés financiers en Chine continentale.

Le Parlement allemand devrait se réunir de manière exceptionnelle le 6 juillet prochain afin de tenir un vote pour se prononcer sur la demande d’aide formulée par l’Espagne auprès de l’Union européenne, selon le journal qui cite des juristes au fait du dossier. Une autre session pourrait se tenir une semaine plus tard pour se pencher cette fois sur le cas de Chypre.

La croissance sera sans doute de 2% en Allemagne cette année mais elle retomberait à 1% en 2013, conséquence de la crise de la zone euro, rapporte le journal qui cite une prévision de l’institut de conjoncture Kiel Economics. «Pour l’Allemagne, le risque de récession s’est à nouveau sensiblement accru», estime Carsten-Patrick Meier, directeur de Kiel Economics.

Avec un net recul des recettes fiscales et une hausse des dépenses gouvernementales, le déficit budgétaire britannique (hors soutien public aux banques) a atteint 17,9 milliards de livres en mai, contre 15,2 milliards un an plus tôt, selon l’Office national des statistiques. Le consensus des économistes s’établissait à 14,8 milliards de livres.

L’agence de notation a ramené la note de l’Allemagne de AA- à A+ et assigné une perspective négative. Que la Grèce ou d’autres pays de la zone euro quittent ou pas l’union monétaire, l’Allemagne se retrouvera chargée de créances supplémentaires et irrécouvrables, explique Egan-Jones.

Sur les cinq premiers mois de l’année, le déficit budgétaire du gouvernement central espagnol s’est élevé à 3,41% du PIB, contre 2,59% un an plus tôt. Hors impact des transferts aux régions, le déficit est ramené de 2,56% à 2,38%. Pour l’ensemble de l’année, le gouvernement central vise un déficit de 3,5% du PIB.

Le premier ministre chinois Wen Jiabao a achevé sa tournée en Amérique Latine en offrant 10 milliards de dollars de lignes de crédit dans le cadre de sa proposition d’accord de libre échange avec les pays du Mercosur. L’objectif serait de doubler le volume des échanges d’ici 2016. En 2011, les exportations de la Chine vers le Mercosur ont atteint 48,5 milliards de dollars, en croissance de 34%.

La commission boursière américaine pourrait entamer des poursuites au civil contre Philip Falcone, le directeur d’Harbinger Capital Partners, dès cette semaine, selon des sources concordantes. La SEC le soupçonne d’avoir utilisé l’argent de ses clients pour régler ses impôts, favorisé certains clients, et notamment Goldman Sachs, mais également de manipulation de cours.

La société d’investissement Fortress Investment Group qui gère 46,4 milliards de dollars d’actifs souhaiterait lancer son deuxième fonds d’investissement (Japan Opportunity Fund) ciblé sur l’immobilier japonais d’un milliard de dollars d’ici la fin de l’année, selon Bloomberg. Les investisseurs institutionnels nippons pèsent à hauteur de 40% dans ce nouveau fonds.

Le Chicago Mercantile Exchange a annoncé hier soir avoir augmenté ses appels de marge sur les contrats à terme de maïs, soja, lait, bois, riz, avoine et blé, traités sur le Chicago Board of Trade. Une mesure effective dès la prochaine séance de cotation.

Pamplona Capital Management, un fonds de private-equity russe, a annoncé avoir accru sa participation dans UniCredit de 1,99% à 5%, devenant ainsi le deuxième actionnaire de la banque italienne. Une participation qui a une valeur de marché de 700 millions d’euros, la banque ayant perdu les deux tiers de sa valeur de marché ces trois derniers mois. Les intentions de Pamplona seraient amicales, selon le Financial Times.

L’Espagne envisage de relever la TVA sur certains produits assujettis actuellement à un taux bas, afin de réduire le déficit budgétaire, a déclaré le ministère des Finances. Le taux de TVA espagnol - 18% - est l’un des plus faibles de l’Union européenne et de nombreux produits bénéficient de surcroît d’un taux réduit de 4% ou 8%.

Pour le gouverneur de la Banque de France, le solde des transactions courantes, déficitaire à hauteur de 1,9% du PIB fin 2011, doit s’améliorer. Ce déficit, persistant depuis 2005, représente en cumul 165 milliards. Outre l’impact de l'énergie, commun à toute la zone euro, la France présente un facteur spécifique : une compétitivité insuffisante, a souligné Christian Noyer.

La banque verte veut aider les collectivités locales alors que ces dernières éprouvent des difficultés à trouver des financements depuis les difficultés de Dexia. Pour y arriver, le Crédit Agricole va s’appuyer sur ses activités assurantielles. Dans un communiqué daté du 26 juin, le groupe mutualiste annonce que les caisses régionales vont proposer 1,875 Md€ de crédits à taux fixe sur 15 ans aux collectivités « de taille moyenne présentant des projets utiles pour le développement des territoires et ne pouvant accéder directement aux marchés obligataires ». 80% de ces créances seront ensuite rachetées par un véhicule de titrisation, qui se finance en émettant des obligations souscrites par Crédit Agricole Assurances. Les caisses régionales conserveront dans leur bilan les 20% restants, dont elles assureront la gestion. « C’est une source de diversification de nos placements, car nous nous sommes largement désengagés de la dette souveraine non française. Il nous fallait en outre un placement long pour être en adéquation avec la durée des contrats d’assurance-vie », a expliqué Jérôme Grivet, directeur général de Crédit Agricole Assurances, dans Les Echos.

NYSE Euronext on 26 June announced that it has added two Luxembourg-registered ETFs from Lyxor Asset Management (Société Générale group) to trading on Euronext Paris. The European markets of the NYSE Euronext group now list a total of 590 ETFs 686 times, replicating more than 450 different indices. The first of the two new Lyxor funds replicates the new Euro iStoxx 50 Equal Risk index, which has the same composition as the Euro Stoxx 50 Index. The new concept applies an equal risk contribution strategy to the underlying index to allocate the risk contribution of the components equally. In order to do so, at the monthly rebalancing a covariance matrix is calculated for the 50 components of the Euro Stoxx 50 Index, using the single components’ closing prices over the trading days of the past year.CharacteristicsName: Lyxor ERCISIN code: LU0776635921Underlying index: Euro iStoxx 50 Equal RiskTotal expense ratio: 0.25%Name: Lyxor WLDRISIN code: LU0776636812Underlying index: MSCI World Risk WeightedTotal expense ratio: 0.45%

On Tuesday, the Munich-based asset management firm KanAm announced that shareholders in its US-grundinvest fund (DE0006791817) will be receiving a report on the liquidation of the fund, which was completed on 31 March. Historically, the product was the first German open-ended real estate fund to be liquidated. The decision to liquidate the fund was taken in late September 2010 (see Newsmanagers of 1 October 2010).KanAm insists that the fund, the only German product in the category to be denominated in US dollars, in its nine years of existence (the fund was launched on 20 May 2003), has earned returns of 48.8%. Over six years, the average investment duration, returns were 23.5%. And in the past year, performance was 23.9%, due to higher-than-expected tax refunds.Since 1 April 2012, the procedure to liquidate the fund and distribute its assets to shareholders has been transferred to the depository bank, the Hamburg-based M. M. Warburg & Co KGaA.

Agefi reports that the US Securities and Exchange Commission may file a civil suit against Philip Falcone, director of Harbinger Capital Partners, as soon as this week, according to multiple sources. The SEC suspects Falcone of using client money to pay taxes, of favouring certain clients, particularly Goldman Sachs, and also of manipulating the share price of MAAX Holdings.

Société Générale Securities Services (SGSS) has been mandated by Hansainvest Lux S.A. to produce key investor information documents (KIID), according to a statement from SGSS released on 26 June. Hansainvest has chosen to adopt the entirety of the modular KIID range offered by SGSS, which includes: -creation of content, such as explanations of investment policy in everyday language, -calculation of various indicators, such as risk indicators, presentation of past performance, or calculation of management fees, -creation and layout of KIID documents: the documents are prepared by experienced teams, including asset servicing, legal, graphics, translation, quality control and distribution via a robust IT platform which is able ot manage very large volumes. Hansainvest Lux S.A., an affiliate of the Signal Iduna group, manages about EUR10bn in assets.

Enrique Pardo, who joined the alternative management division of Allfunds Bank in 2008, has been appointed as director of research at the head of the investment analysis unit, Funds People reports. Pardo will be responsible for a global analysis team based in Madrid and London.Allfunds, a joint venture of Santander and Intesa Sanpaolo, is planning to recruit more employees in the British capital to increase its presence among the top international asset management firms.

SG Private Banking is increasing its coverage of Russian clients in Asia, with the recruitment of its first Russian-speaking speciaist in Singapore, Asian Investor reports. Garry Frenklah joined SG Private Banking as a senior director, in charge of development of Russian and international clients in the region. Frenklah previously worked at Royal Bank of Scotland, as managing director.

39% of European institutional investors are planning to increase the proportion of assets they delegate to external asset management firms, by an average of 5%, in the next 12 months, a Caceis Investor Services and PwC survey undertaken between February and April, of a sample of professionals representing total assets of USD4.5trn, presented Tuesday at the Fund Forum International (“Taking the Reins: A Roadmap for Navigating the Institutional Investors’ Universe,”) has found.Of the survey, 32% are planning to increase the number of asset management firms to which they delegate assets.Currently, institutionals ousource an average of 59% of their assets to external managers, while the practice is much more sidespread at pension funds (69%) than at insurance companies (10%).They outsource an average of EUR553m to each asset management firm. This amount is lower for those who tend to invest in funds (EUR240m) than for those who prefer mandates (EUR809m). At the same time, 52% of investors surveyed use fewer than 10 external asset management firms, in all investor categories combined.When they select external managers, institutional investors, who account for 69% of assets under management in the asset management sector, or EUR12trn, are most swayed by the transparency of the product, followed by performance and expertise, François Marion, CEO of Caceis Investor Servies, said at a presentation of the study. Their level of satisfaction depends on operational strength, independence of verifications of controls and procedures, and the quality of service, the survey continues. As a result, says Marion, the study suggests that investors are not focused solely on performance. However, poor performance is the most popular reason for investors to decide to replace an asset management firm. The other two reasons are high fees and poor quality reporting. These are three areas where asset management firms need to seek to improve.

30% of asset managers will disappear in the next ten years, a survey by KPMG of 25 CEOs in the asset management industry to be published in July, from which Nicolas Griffin, partner, presented a few findings at the Fund Forum International on Tuesday in Monaco, has found. The head of KPMG says that by asset managers, he means both asset management firms, and people working in the industry.This is a result of overcapacity in the sector, and compressing margins, he explained to Newsmanagers at the conference. “That will primarily affect asset management firms which are too large, and those which have a cost/income ratio of 80-90%, a relatively large population,” says Griffin.The KPMG head also predicts that sovereign funds will become full-blown asset managers. He would not be surprised if sovereign funds started buying up asset management firms as soon as next year.

In the past few years, aversion to the equity markets has given rise to an increasing appetite for bond funds in Europe, according to a Lipper study. But that hasn’t worked to everyone’s advantage. An examination of inflows in 2011 finds that a small percentage of funds accounted for a large percentage of inflows. According to Lipper, slightly over 5% of bond funds took on nearly 50% of bond inflows in 2011.This may encourage some managers to launch new strategies to attempt to capture a part of the inflows to the best-selling funds. The number of funds in Europe, however, remains very high, with an increase of about 1,000 in the number of funds in barely a year.

A survey of 21 institutional investors and 25 corporate CFOs (issuers), mostly European, undertaken by the Edhec-Risk Institute and sponsored by Rothschild & Cie, finds that investors consider inflation-linked corporate bonds the ideal instrument to hedge their liabilities, now that government debt is no longer considered an asset safe from the risk of default, in liability-driven investment by pension funds.For businesses, respondents say that inflation-linked bond issues tend ultimately to limit risks for businesses and to increase its share price.

Uffi Real Estate Asset Management (UFFI Ream) on 26 June announced that it has signed a partenrship agreement with Corpus Sireo, a top fund manager in Germany, to provide outsourced asset management with a dedicated team for the French portfolio of a Luxembourg Sicav-FIS investing in Europe. Uffi Ream will manage six office properties for the fund, which are valued at about EUR250m. As a part of these duties, Uffi ream will be responsible for valuation and rental of the properties. With this new management mandate, “Uffi Ream shows its capacity for development beyond its historical profession as a SCPI, in the management of real estate funds for French and foreign institutional managers,” a statement says. Assets under management at Uffi Ream total EUR1.5bn.

In response to criticisms of ETFs, and at the demand of many investors, BlackRock has decided to limit the room to manoeuvre it grants to its portfolio managers, and will now put a ceiling of 50% of the portfolio on the use of securities lending for products sold under the iShares brand, a spokesperson for the US asset management firm has told Reuters, Handelsblatt reports. In the past, the percentage of assets involved in these transactions has been higher than this limit.

The State Street Investor Confidence index for institutional investors in the month of June 2012 is up 7 point, from 86.5 in May to 93.5 in June, its highest level of the year. This rise is attributable to US and European investors. Appetite for risk on the part of institutional investors in North America rose 5.7 points from a corrected level of 88.1 in May, at 93.8 in June. The confidence of institutional investors in Europe is up 4.5 points at 102.5, compared with a corrected level of 98.0 the previous month. The confidence of investors in Asia has improved slightly. The regional index is up by one point to 90.4 in June, compared with a revised level of 89.4 in May.