There is a mood of “satisfaction” at Carmignac Gestion. At a quarterly meeting to present macro-economic analysis and investment strategy in third quarter, Frédéric Leroux, global manager, noted that high-risk assets are expected to see a rebound in valuation, and the times are becoming favourable for stock-picking. The manager, however, insisted on continuing to reduce leverage in developed economies, which are weighing down economic growth rates and profit margins at businesses. The head of the firm, which since the beginning of the year has posted net inflows of EUR4bn, has also declared that it is more optimistic about Europe. “Mario Draghi has spoken,” the director says, “and systemic risks have fallen due to the role of the European Central Bank as a lender of last resort.” The executive also noted the potential for European markets to catch up to their peaks in 2007, from their current levels. In numbers, the Euro Stoxx 50 index is expected to gain 75%, to return to their peaks of five years ago, while the S&P 500 is expected to fall by 1.40%. “Although in Europe the financial crisis is in the process of being dealt with, the situation is no less complicated,” the manager warns, “since the recession is continuing.” Leroux had a tempered outlook for France, where he sees “no structural reforms.” As an example, he points to the unit price for labour hours, which has continued to rise since 2008 in France, at a time when it has been falling for three years in Spain and Ireland. Carmignac Gestion has also returned to indices of Europe, and has recently divested from Chinese banks, in favour of European establishments, including two French banks, Société Générale and BNP Paribas. For the flagship funs of the Carmignac Patrimoine range, this return of optimism and a desire on the part of the firm to profit from the rebound on the markets is the reason for an increase in exposure to equities of nearly three percentage points in third quarter (41.2% overall), while government bonds have been reduced in favour of private issues. In currencies, Carmignac Gestion is also more prudent: exposure to the euro has doubled over the quarter, while it has fallen from 56.22% to 33.77% for the US dollar. Lastly, within the portfolio, exposure to cash has been sharply reduced (to 13.7% from more than 20% as of the end of June).

AXA Investment Managers (Axa IM) is giving a breath of fresh air to its Global Flex range. The AXA WF Force 5 and AXA WF Force 8 funds have new names: AXA World Funds Global Flex 50 and AXA World Funds Global Flex 100. AXA World Funds Global Flex 50 has 50% of its portfolio invested in assets which are considered “prudent,” such as fixed income, while the other 50% will be invested in equities or commodities. AXA World Funds Global Flex 100 is aimed at investors who accept a higher level of risk. Exposure to equities will vary from 50% to 100%, while the remainder will be invested in fixed income.

Amundi complète et renforce sa gamme de fonds volatilité avec le lancement d’Amundi Funds Absolute Volatility Arbitrage Plus. Conforme aux normes UCITS IV, ce compartiment appartient à la SICAV luxembourgeoise Amundi Funds. Le nouveau compartiment vise une performance annuelle supérieure à l’EONIA capitalisé de +4% par an, sur une durée minimale d’investissement de 3 ans et avec un budget de risque maximum de VaR8%, précise Amundi dans un communiqué.Amundi Funds Absolute Volatility Arbitrage Plus est géré par une équipe de gestion composée de 9 professionnels, bénéficiant d’une expérience de plus de 12 ans dans la gestion de volatilité. Les stratégies de volatilité gérées par Amundi représentent un encours de 6.8 milliards d’euros à fin septembre 2012. Cette gamme se compose de plusieurs compartiments UCITS IV de droit luxembourgeois : Amundi Funds Absolute Volatility Arbitrage (le budget de risque prédéfini est de VaR4%), Amundi Funds Absolute Volatility Euro Equities et Amundi Funds Absolute Volatility World Equities. Caractéristiques techniques - Amundi Funds Absolute Volatility Arbitrage Plus Classe d’action(s)1 AE (Tous investisseurs) IE (Institutionnels) SE (Distributeurs) Société de gestion Amundi Luxembourg S.A. Gestionnaire en investissement Amundi Banque dépositaire CACEIS Bank Luxembourg SA Pays d’enregistrement Autriche, Belgique (AHG, AE (C/D)), Finlande, France, Allemagne, Grèce, Italie (IE (C/D), ME, SE, FE), Irlande, Pays-Bas, Norvège, Espagne ( IE (C/D), ME, OE, SE, AE (C/D), FE), Suède, Suisse, UK Devise de référence du compartiment EUR Devise de référence de la classe EUR EFC (Classification européenne des fonds d’investissement) Rendement absolu Catégorie(s) d’actions Capitalisation/Distribution Capitalisation Codes ISIN C : LU0722566899 D : LU0722566972 C : LU0722567194 D : LU0722567277 C : LU0722567350 Investissement initial minimum Néant Equivalent en EUR de 500 000 USD Néant Périodicité de calcul de la VNI Quotidienne Délais d’opération Chaque Jour d’Opérations avant 14h00, heure de Luxembourg Commission de souscription maximum 4.50% 2.50% 3.00% Commission de gestion annuelle maximum 1.00% 0.70% 1.20% Commission d’administration annuelle maximale 0.30% 0.10% 0.30% Commission de performance 15% de la performance cumulée au-delà de l’EONIA Commission de conversion maximale 1%

The carbon trading exchange BlueNext, co-founded by NYSE Euronext and the Caisse des Dépôts in 2007, is in its final days, Les Echos reports. BlueNext will finally close its doors on 5 December, as the operator has not received permission to manage auctions of carbon emission quotas in the European Union from next year.

BNP Paribas Securities Services will be launching a range of clearing, settlement and custody services in the United States for all major asset classes listed on NYSE Euronext and Nasdaq OMX, Investment Europe reports.

The Edmond de Rothschild group will be laying off 66 people, out of a total of 1,000 Les Echos reports. This is the first time that a plan on this scale has been put in place by the group in France. “It will be accompanied by a job protection plan and voluntary departures, which began on 13 October, and are expected to conclude on 31 December,” a source close to the group says. Labour unions were consulted, and all offered a negative opinion. The restructuring is the result of a refocusing of activities at the gorup on the asset management and private banking professions. The firm on 13 July made the merger of its two major asset management affiliates, Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management (EdRAM) and Edmond de Rothschild Investment Managers (EdRIM) official. The merger will be completed on 1 December.

The ETF provider WisdomTree Investments has announced net profits for third quarter of USD4.53m, compared with USD0.13 in April-June, and USD1.36m in the corresponding period of last year.As of 30 September, ETF assets at WisdomTree totalled USD16.783bn, compared with USD15.004bn as of the end of June, and USD11.184bn one year previously. Net subscriptions totalled USD1.036bn in July-September, compared with USD338m in second quarter.

The Philips pension fund, whose assets under mangement total EUR14.9bn, has earned returns of 5.2% in third quarter, meaning that in the first nine months of the year, the fund as earned returns of 9.5%, according to the specialist website IPE. The liability-driven management allocation (71% of the total) outperformed its benchmark by 1.7 percentage points, at 5.5%. The performance observed is thought to be largely due to French inflation-linked bonds. The performance allocation (29%), composed of equities, real estate and commodities, has earned returns of 4.4%, slightly below its benchmark index. The coverage rate has improved by 6 percentage points, to 105%

Assets under management at F&C Asset Management fell by GBP1.4bn in third quarter, to GBP96.8bn, compared with GBP98.2bn as of 30 June 2012, according to figures released on 29 October. Over a nine-month period, F&C has posted outflows of GBP8.41bn.

Paal Hagerud, CIO of the Norwegian finance ministry, has announced that the Government Pension Fund – Global (GPFG, the former Oil Fund) has changed its strategy, and that it will now be “swimming upstream” in the equity markets, Handelsblatt reports. The sovereign fund, with USD650bn in assets, “can afford to let itself buy equities only when they are falling,” since it doesn’t have short-term liabilities and has regular inflows of new assets.In favour of the new adjustment in its investment policy, the government has just authorised the fund to buy equities when the exposure to this asset class at the end of the month was 4 percentage points below the ordinary level of 60% of assets.The results for the GPFG in third quarter will be released on 2 November.

The Swiss asset management firm Picard Angst has announced the launch of a new energies and metals index, which will equally weight Brent, WTI, heating oil, gasoline, aluminium, nickel, gold, silver and platinum at 10% each. The index will be used as a benchmark for the new Picard Angst Energy & Metal Fund, which uses a strategy similar to that of the Pictet Angst All Commodity Tracker Plus (which has already attracted assets of USD700m).The Swiss-registered institutional fund (CH0190273505) is available with a minimum investment of CHF1m, EUR1m, or USD1m, The TER is 1.07%. The management team combines the futures curve with tactical investments.

All activities at UBS posted an increase in profits in third quarter, including Wealth Management, Wealth Mangement Americas and Retail and Corporate, which have posted their highest levels of profits ever since the beginning of the year, on the basis of corrected figures, the Swiss group announced in a statement released on 30 October. Assets invested totalled CHF2.242bn, up by CHF79bn.Pre-tax profits for Wealth Management were up 20% to CHF600m, while the unit has posted a net inflow of CHF7.7bn. Wealth Management Americas has posted a record pre-tax profit for the third consecutive quarter, up 9% to USD230m. However, the UBS group has posted a net loss of CHF2.17bn in third quarter, compared with a net profit of CHF1.02bn in the same period of last year. Over the first nine months of 2012, the bank has posted losses of CHF920m, following profits of CHF3.84bn one year ago.In this environment, UBS, which is predicting further losses groupwide in fourth quarter, will be undertaking a drastic restructuring, with nearly 10,000 employees to be laid off worldwide by 2015, bringing personnel to about 54,000, from 64,000 currently.

Credit Suisse is hoping to develop its asset management activities in common with the Qatar sovereign fund, the news agency Bloomberg reports. A new unit, based in Doha, the capital of the emirate, will concentrate on investments in the Middle East and North Africa, the news agency reports, citing a source familiar with the matter. After 12 months of talks, the joint project by the bank and the Qatar Investment Authority may be announced by the end of this year. This may be a sign at Qatar and Credit Suisse are planning to develop their existing relationship. Qatar is a 6% shareholder in Credit Suisse. Spokespeople for the Qatar sovereign fund and the bank have declined to comment on the reports.

Bob Jain, head of the equities unit at the Credit Suisse group, will be leaving his job, which he has held for four years, to become head of house hedge funds in the money management division, the news agency Bloomberg reports, citing sources with information about the move. As head of alternative management, Jain will be based in New York, and will report to the head of asset management, Robert Shafir. Timothy O’Hara, former head of the bond unit for the Americas, will take over Jain’s former role.

Sturgeon Capital has announced the launch of the Sturgeon Central Asia Equities Fund, a UCITS-compliant hedge fund which will invest in equities with a strong exposure to central Asia, Hedgeweek reports. Lemanik Asset Management will be responsible for managing portfolio risks.

The private equity group Blackstone is planning to scale up its presence in the Asian region, the head of the firm, Stephen Schwarzmann, has announced, Asian Investor reports. Blackstone would like to develop its activities in real estate and financing for new hedge funds, Schwarzmann says. Since the beginning of the year, staff at Blackstone in the region have risen 20% to 191 employees.

D’après Bernard Descreux, directeur de la division gestion d’actifs d’EDF, l'électricien a l’intention de « monter en puissance dans le non coté ». Après avoir misé 60 millions d’euros en mai dernier dans le FCPR Electranova Capital via son département recherche et développement, EDF examine actuellement la possibilité de placer une partie plus importante de ses actifs dédiés (26,7 milliards d’euros sous gestion fin 2011) dans le non coté. Alors qu’un appel d’offres limité pour sélectionner un gérant « toutes catégories confondues » serait en cours, un second appel d’offres sur invitation pourrait être lancé d’ici fin novembre. Le directeur de la division gestion d’actifs d’EDF n’a pas souhaité indiquer les montants en jeu.

La Réserve fédérale de New York a déclaré lundi qu’une opération de rachat de Treasuries prévue mardi était annulée en raison «des fermetures du marché financier et des conditions de marché présumées accompagner l’ouragan Sandy». Le calendrier des opérations sera mis à jour «dans les jours qui viennent avec des précisions sur les opérations déplacées». La Fed aurait dû racheter mardi pour 1,75 à 2,25 milliards de dollars de Treasuries d'échéances variant de février 2036 à août 2042.

Les dépenses des ménages américains ont nettement augmenté en septembre, montrent des données officielles publiées par le département du Commerce. Les dépenses des ménages ont progressé de 0,8% contre un une hausse de 0,5% en août (chiffre non révisé). Les revenus des ménages ont par ailleurs progressé de 0,4% en septembre, comme attendu par le consensus.

Le président du gouvernement espagnol, Mariano Rajoy, a déclaré lundi être opposé à titre personnel à l’octroi de pouvoir élargis à un «commissaire aux Affaires monétaires», idée soutenue dimanche par Mario Draghi, le président de la Banque centrale européenne. «C’est une idée, qu’en soi, je n’aime pas. Dans le cadre d’un ensemble de mesures visant à renforcer l’union budgétaire, elle pourrait être envisagée», a-t-il estimé.

Les sénateurs français ont engagé lundi l’examen du projet de loi organique qui met en œuvre le traité budgétaire européen et notamment la «règle d’or» interdisant les déficits publics. Le vote de la haute assemblée, qui devrait avoir lieu mardi, ne fait pas plus de doute qu'à l’Assemblée, où ce texte a obtenu une large majorité : sénateurs de gauche, du centre et de droite devraient se prononcer en faveur de cette loi organique, seuls les élus du Front de gauche y étant hostiles.

Le produit intérieur brut de l’Italie a subi au troisième trimestre une contraction un peu moindre que celle de 0,8% du deuxième trimestre, conforme avec la prévision officielle d’une baisse de 2,4% sur l’ensemble de l’année, a déclaré lundi une source gouvernementale citée par Reuters. Le chiffre préliminaire sera publié le 15 novembre. «C’est un chiffre conforme à l’estimation gouvernementale d’une contraction de 2,4% en 2012. Si ce n’est pas 2,4%, ce sera 2,3% ou 2,5%», a-t-il ajouté.

Le taux d’inflation en Allemagne est probablement resté stable à 2% en octobre, au vu des données publiées lundi par six Länder et qui servent de base de calcul pour la statistique à l'échelon national. Le taux est resté stable dans trois des six Länder, mais l’inflation a accéléré à 1,9% en Rhénanie du Nord-Westphalie, contre 1,6% en septembre

Aymeric Forest, gérant multi asset chez Schroders

Claire Chaves d’Oliveira, directrice de la gestion actions chez Groupama AM

Pierre Wrobel, spécialiste produit obligataire chez Allianz Global Investors

La devise a touché un plus haut depuis 1994, mais la volatilité reste limitée à 2,1%, contre 4,85% en moyenne pour les devises asiatiques

Jean-Luc Proutat et Raymond Van der Putten, économistes chez BNP Paribas

Philippe Weber, responsable études et stratégie de CPR AM

La devise niponne revenait ce matin à 79,65 contre dollar, après avoir chuté à 80,38 vendredi sur fond de fortes attentes d'assouplissement