Selon La Tribune, les banques financent moins facilement les montages LBO comme en témoigne un volume de prêts en chute de 80% entre 2007 et 2008. Les leaders levant le pied, #ce sont les banques qui ont relativement moins réduit que les autres leur voilure qui ont fait un bond dans le classement#, Royal Bank of Scotland, passant ainsi en en tête du palmarès 2008, avec 10,56 milliards de dollars prêtés. En France, seule Calyon, a prêté plus de 1 milliard en 2008, la BNP reculant fortement.
Selon l’Agefi, la taille du marché des émissions de dettes garanties a dépassé 300 milliards d’euros depuis l’automne dernier, dont 50% depuis le début 2009. Après les USA, c’est le Royaume-Uni, la France et l’Allemagne qui sont les plus grands émetteurs. Toutefois, précise le quotidien numérique, citant Natixis, le marché commence à montrer des signes d’essoufflement.
Après avoir touché un plus bas depuis 12 ans en début de semaine, Wall Street a rebondi mardi, le Dow Jones reprenant 3,32% à 7.351 points. Le rebond des valeurs financières, la FED ayant notamment déclaré qu’elle écarte un scénario de nationalisation des banques US, a largement contribué à cette note positive.
Selon les calculs de Bloomberg relayés par le Handelsblatt, le nombre de titres illiquides dans l’indice MSCI Europe Small Caps (1.122 valeurs) a augmenté en janvier de 85 % à 724 et cela représente un volume de plus de 50 milliards d’euros. D’après le londonien Marwyn Investment Management, 90 % de la capitalisation boursière des small caps (moins de 100 millions de livres) n’ont pas pu être négociés durant les douze derniers mois, et cette proportion va augmenter. En moyenne, les fonds de petites capitalisations en Europe ont perdu 37 % l’année dernière contre 31 % pour les plus grandes capitalisations.
Sur la base des CDS, les primes de risque retrouvent des niveaux voisins de ceux qui prévalaient juste après la faillite de Lehman Brothers. Les économistes estiment relativement faible le risque de faillite d’un Etat, à l’exception peut-être du cas de l’Ukraine. Moody’s vient d’ailleurs d’abaisser encore la note B1 du pays et les spreads sur les CDS atteignent le record de 3.800 points de base, ce qui signifie, rappelle le Handelsblatt, que les investisseurs doivent payer une prime de 38 % pour se couvrir contre le risque de défaut de l’Ukraine.La prime de risque est également très forte pour la Lettonie, avec 940 points de base, l’agence S&P ayant abaissé la note de cette république balte à BB+, donc au niveau #junk bond#.
According to a report by bfinance UK, the 133 defined-contribution pension funds in Britain suffered average losses of 16.5% in 2008, going by the State Street WM All Fund Universe index, while their Canadian counterparts lost 15.9%, according to the RBC Dexia Universe. The approximately 1,200 United States pension funds covered by the Trust Universe Comparison Service from Wilshire Analytics showed average losses of 22.1%, while according to Rubicon, their Irish counterparts fell by 34.8%. Japanese pension funds, for their part, lost 20.1%.
Investment Week reports that M&G Investments has posted net subscriptions of GBP3.4bn, which represents a contraction of 31% from their levels in 2007, although they doubled in fourth quarter to GBP0.7bn. Gross subscriptions come in at a record GBP16.2bn (+10%). Total assets, including GBP94bn managed on behalf of Prudential, were down at the end of December by 15% compared with their levels at the end of 2007, to GBP141bn. Net subscriptions to retail funds rose 62% last year, to GBP1.9bn.
Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has announced that it has lowered its long-term credit rating for the private equity investor 3i Group PLC from ?A-? to ?BBB+?. The downgrade is explained as a result of uncertain profit outlooks and a financial profile which is ?not solid enough for a company rated in the A category,? the ratings agency says.
According to Hedge Fund Research (HFR), hedge funds investing in emerging markets last year saw their worst results since the beginning of the statistical series, with losses of nearly 37%, Hedgeweek reports. Assets fell by 43% from their levels at the end of 2007, to finish 2008 at USD67bn, largely due to net redemptions of USD6.7bn in fourth quarter. However, HFR states that in the twelve-year period from 1990-2008, hedge funds specialised in emerging markets posted annual performance of 13%, with volatility similar to that of the S&P 500 index, which, for its part, gained only 7.3% per year in the same period.
While BGI recently estimated that assets in European ETF funds had increased 11.2% in US dollars in 2008 to a total of USD142.82bn (see Newsmanagers of 16 January), db x-trackers (Deutsche Bank) reports that the European market has grown in Euros by 24.3%, or EUR22.1bn, to EUR112.9bn as of the end of December. Three issuers account for more than three quarters of the market: 38% for Barclays Global Investors (with its iShares range), Lyxor (Société Générale), with 22% of the market, and db x-trackers (with 16%). In total, ETFs in Europe registered net subscriptions of EUR52.4bn, while all other categories of funds saw net outflows of EUR357.4bn. db x-trackers emphasizes that net inflows compensated for negative market effects in an environment in which the MSCI Europe index lost 48.2% last year.db x-trackers estimates that the European ETF market will continue to expand, to measure as much as EUR150bn by the end of next year. This will be driven by innovations in ETFs based on swaps in the area of bonds, and importantly, by subscriptions from pension funds.
Thorsten Michalik, head of ETF activities at Deutsche Bank, has not ruled out the possibility that these funds will have assets of over EUR150bn as soon as this year (rather than the end of 2010, as officially predicted by his company), and as much as EUR180bn by the end of next year, Handelsblatt reports. The ETF boom is attracting providers. Credit Suisse, whose assets under management in ETFs total EUR4bn, is planning to launch several products in Europe, in Germany and other countries, in the middle of this year. Crédit Agricole Asset Management is planning to extend its range to 70 products by the end of the year, from 24 currently.There are also a lot of rumours about US management firms (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, State Street, and Vanguard) seeking to enter the European market, but nothing concrete has been announced so far.
According to a Lipper study, revenues from commissions and other fees at European management firms tripled between 2001 and 2007, to EUR18bn, but they fell back to EUR15bn in 2008, and are in danger of falling further to EUR11bn this year, Expansion reports. The study also reveals that management commissions charged to retail investors for a European equities fund have increased from 1.3% in 1994 to 1.6% in 2008, while fees charged to institutional investors have fallen from 1.5% in 1995 to slightly less than 1% at the end of last year. Lipper also predicts that mergers of funds provoked by the crisis will lead to a fall in overall commissions of 5 to 15 basis points.
The Herald reports that the hedge fund which was the catalyst for the sale of ABN Amro earned profits of GBP158m (on revenues of GBP181m) in 2007, the year in which the Dutch bank was acquired for GBP49bn by a consortium including the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), Fortis, and Santander. Toscafund is an affiliate of Old Oak Holdings, whose chairman is Sir George Mathewson, who was also CEO and chairman of RBS until April 2006. Toscafund had declared a stake of 1% in RBS. If the fund sold its shares to the victorious consortium, it could have earned gains of as much as GBP200m in only six months.
The Spanish hedge fund management firm Valorica (Valorica Global, Valorica Macro and Valorica Alfa) is preparing to make its debut in the world of traditional management, and will be registering its products in Ireland, Funds People reports. The firm has also recruited Carlos Oses, who left BNY Mellon Asset Management a few months ago, as its new head of client relations. In this position he will apparently replace Andrés Lantero Moreno.
The government of Singapore has passed legislation to create a special reduced tax status, with effect from 1 April 2009 until 31 March 2014, which will apply to wealth managers, hedge funds, and private equity funds which manage more than SGD50m (EUR25m), Wealth Bulletin reports. In addition, subscription limits for Singapore citizens investing in funds managed in the city-state will be raised. In addition to tax exemptions for investment funds, Singapore is offering a preferential 10% tax rate for managers of registered funds; this rate is reduced further to 5% for managers of Sharia-compliant products.
The major hedge fund management firms are aggressively developing their UCITS-compliant product ranges, to operate within a structure that provides increased protection to investors, Financial Times Fund Management reports on 23 February. Brevan Howard, which manages Usd25bn in assets, will launch its first UCITS III fund on Monday. GLG Partners and Ocey Asset Management, for their part, attracted subscriptions to their UCITS ranges in fourth quarter of last year.
The ?large buyout? group within the BVK association of private equity investors on Monday unveiled a private equity database for use by researchers. The data, available free of charge and presented in anonymous form, covers 35 acquisitions followed by resales in the period 1997-2007. The data were provided by Advent International, Allianz Capital Partners, Apax Partners, Bain Capital, BC Partners, The Blackstone Group, Carlyle Group, Cinven, CVC Capital Partners, KKR, Permira and TPG Capital.Average revenues for companies at the time of sale measured EUR1.05bn, which represented a 16% increase over their levels at the time of acquisition by the private equity firms. The number of employees increased by an average of 4%, to 4,424, and the average duration of private equity ownership was 4.8 years.
The venture capital branch of Lehman Brothers Holdings will become an independent company, the Wall Street Journal reports. The entity will drop the name Lehman Brothers Venture Partners, and will become known as Tenaya Capital. The firm will have USD750m in assets under management.
The Wall Street Journal reports that a fund of hedge funds owned by the brother and the son of US vice-president Joe Biden was sold exclusively by companies controlled by R. Allen Stanford, the financier accused of a USD8bn fraud. The USD50bn fund, entitled Paradigm Stanford Capital Management Core Alternative Fund, was the fruit of a collaboration with Paradigm Global Advisors, the company owned by the Biden family, and Stanford Financial Group. The fund has offered to refund the USD2.7bn it received from the Stanford company, the WSJ reports.
The Financial Times reports that Lord Skidelsky, a historian an biographer of John Maynard Keynes, is planning to leave the board of directors of Greater Europe, a hedge fund managed by the German firm Wermuth Asset Management, which lost more than 90% last year on investments in Russian assets. Another high-profile board member is also planning to leave the fund: Garret Fitzgerald.
Apax Partners has sold 7.7% of its management firm to GIC Special Investments, an affiliate of the Singapore sovereign fund, and Future Fund, the Australian sovereign fund, the Financial Times reports. Negotiations are underway over a sale of a further 2.3% stake in the capital of the firm. The proceeds of the sale will be placed in a fixed-capital vehicle which will participate in future rounds of fundraising at Apax.
The Wall Street Journal reports that the Alternative Management Association (AIMA) will Tuesday propose measures to require hedge fund firms to increase their levels of openness. The measures will include a requirement that funds register with regulators and maintain regular contact with the authorities. The move comes at a time when there is a trend towards increased regulation of hedge funds.
Le Handelsblatt rapporte que l’IPIC, fonds souverain d’Abou Dhabi, acquiert le chimiste canadien Nova Chemicals pour 6 dollars par action. Avec la reprise de dette, cela représente 2,3 milliards de dollars.
L’Emirat de Dubai émet un emprunt de 20 milliards de dollars sur 5 ans avec un rendement de 4 % pour faire face à ses engagements de court et moyen termes tout en finançant les projets en cours, rapporte la Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. La Banque centrale des Emirats arabes unis a indiqué qu’elle souscrira pour 10 milliards de dollars.
Les sept pays européens du G-20 sont convenus dimanche à Berlin de prendre des mesures contre les paradis fiscaux. Les banques espagnoles se retirent graduellement de ces paradis fiscaux, mais, d’après leurs rapports annuels de 2007, elles y entretiennent encore des filiales, rapporte Cinco Días. Le Santander et sa filiale Abbey avaient alors encore 19 filiales chacune dans les paradis fiscaux comme les Bahamas, Hong-Kong, Panama, les îles caïman, l'île de Man ou Guernesey. Toutefois, la banque indique avoir pris toutes les mesures pour conjurer les risques de réputation et juridiques, et avoir entamé un processus de réduction du nombre de ces filiales. Le BBVA a pour sa part trois succursales aux îles Caiman et une dans les Antilles néerlandaises. Le Popular, le Sabadell et le Banesto ont aussi des participations dans des sociétés situées dans des paradis fiscaux.