Les Echos reports that Standard & Poor’s is predicting a 13.3% decrease in dividends from S&P 500 companies. ?Howard Silverblatt, index analyst, estimates that USD214.7bn will be paid to shareholders this year, after USD247.9bn in 2008, and USD246.6bn in 2007,? the newspaper says.

Since the beginning of the year, equities funds specialised in Latin America have posted performance of 13.6%, largely due to their strong exposure to Brazil, Cinco Días reports. Brazil is benefiting from a rebound on commodity markets, high interest rates, and attractive growth outlooks. The Bovespa index has gained 7.86% since 1 January, and as much as 17.89%, counting currency effects. Funds which invest exclusively in Brazil are posting returns of near 20%. Félix López, a manager at Atlas Capital, says the rise of the Bovespa is due to the positive evolution of its two largest businesses, Petrobras and CVRD, which represent 32% of the index. In addition, Mercedes Camacho of IGF notes, Brazil has attracted inflows of capital due to the high interest rate differential.

Since the beginning of the subprime crisis, sovereign funds from emerging countries have invested USD63.23bn to buy stakes in western financial establishments, according to calculations by Bloomberg, reported by Expansión. The largest actors have been Qatar, Kuwait, Singapore, China, and Abu Dhabi, which have invested in banks such as Citi, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, UBS, and Barclays. Meanwhile, governments on both sides of the Atlantic have injected USD628.93bn to bail out the financial system.

In order to prevent closing some of its money market funds, Union Investment has been obliged to buy back shares in the funds from investors seeking to exit from them, says Rüdiger Ginsberg, chairman of the board. Redemption demands totalled up to EUR1bn per day in October, for that month, outflows totalled EUR10bn, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reports, adding that the management firm for the German co-operative banks has refused to disclose the amount it has spent to absorb excess redemptions.

In 2008, net profits at Schroders totalled GBP76.7m, compared with GBP299.7m in 2007. Pre-tax profits and one-time elements for the asset management and private banking divisions totalled GBP289.5m, compared with GBP307.8m, while pre-tax profits for the group, after GBP167.4m in one-time charges, come out to GBP123.1m, compared with GBP392.5m. Assets as of 31 December totalled GBP110.2m, compared with GBP139.1m.Schroders states that it has posted net outflows of GBP3.8bn, compared with GBP10.6bn in 2007, for the institutional branch, while the retail branch showed outflows of GBP6.2bn, compared with net subscriptions of GBP8.8bn.

In 2008, net profits at Clariden Leu fell 66% to CHF212m, while the cost-income ratio deteriorated to 56%, down from 49%. Assets at the end of December were down 27.1% to CHF94bn, and the Credit Suisse affiliate posted net outflows of CHF1.1bn, compared with net inflows of CHF2.9bn in 2007, as outflows of CHF3.2bn in assets management and deleveraging were not wholly compensated for by net inflows from private banking activities.

BNP Paribas Securities Services has been selected by OFI Asset Management (OFI AM) as a provider of custodial, depository, fund administration and compensation services for publicly traded derivatives related to its asset management activities, the bank has announced in a statement.The mandate represents EUR8bn in assets, including 18 FCP funds and 50 mandates.

In January, funds on sale in Sweden posted net subscriptions of SEK3.9bn, according to the most recent statistics from Fondbolagens, the Swedish investment funds association. Equities funds posted a net inflow of SEK2.6bn, while money market funds brought in SEK1.7bn. Diversified funds have also posted positive inflows of SEK0.2bn. However, hedge funds and bond funds have posted outflows of SEK0.4bn and SEK0.2bn, respectively.

After profits of EUR345m in 2007, pre-tax profits at Union Investment contracted by EUR143m in 2008 (a 58.5% decrease), while assets at the end of December were down 17.7% to EUR144bn. EUR6.8bn of the EUR31bn decline in assets under management is due to net redemptions (of which EUR3.6bn were from institutional and EUR3.3bn from retail funds), where the previous year showed net subscriptions of EUR12.2bn.The asset management arm of the German co-operative banks estimates its share of the German open-ended fund market at 15.7% in 2008, compared with 15.1% the previous year.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the SEC is carrying out an investigation to determine whether the alternative management firms SAC Capital Advisors, Third Point and Kynikos Associates conspired to pay the analyst John Gwynn, and his employer, Morgan Keegan, to spread false and defamatory information about the Canadian insurance firm Fairfax Financial Holdings between 2002 and 2007.

Investigators from the SEC, Finra and the Florida Office of Financial Regulation last month launched investigations of six offices of the Stanford Financial Group (USD51bn in assets under management), the Wall Street Journal reports. The group offers several types of financial services, including wealth management, and it issues deposit certificates via its offshore bank, Stanford International Bank, of Antigua. In a message to employees on Thursday, R. Allen Stanford says the SEC is carrying out routine checks which were probably provoked by complaints from two employees.

Three people have joined Swiss Life as directors of development and IFA partnerships, in an activity led by Christophe de Vaublanc.Christina Bonvecchio, former head of Privalto within the BNP Paribas group, becomes head of development for IFA groups.Alexandra Duchesne becomes head of development for banking partnerships. She previously held the position of head of major accounts at Generali, then at Axa France Vie. Lastly, Laurent Mercier is appointed head of development for major accounts. He arrived at Swiss Life in April 2007, and previously served as IFA Inspector for the Paris region.

In 2008, GLG partners saw a decrease of 39% in its net assets to USD15bn. Gross assets fell 43% to USD16.5bn. For the year, the management firm saw net redemptions of USD1.2bn. Figures which show an inflow in fourth quarter (+USD0.8bn) include a USD3bn mandate from Société Générale Asset Management UK, an agreement related to GLG’s acquisition of the firm, which manages a total of USD8.5bn.In 2008, GLG suffered net losses of USD629.7m, on net revenues of USD495m for the year, 52% less than in 2007.

BlackRock has appointed Armando Senra as director for Spain and Portugal, with the mission of developing the institutional client base in these countries, Funds People reports. Currently, 88% of activities in Spain are retail. Senra replaces Delfina Pérez, who has held the position in the interim since the resignation of Gonzalo Azcoitia. He will divide his time between Madrid and New York.The move is a part of a larger strategic reorganisation for the US-based management firm, with the creation of a unit which groups together the Iberian peninsula and Latin America, so that Spain no longer depends on the Southern European region. Senra and his seven partners in Spain will work with the team in New York in charge of Latin America. For Chile, Peru, Mexico and Brazil, BlackRock will now concentrate its efforts on retail clients, where it was previously focused on institutional investors.

In 2008, John Locke Investments, a French management firm founded in 2000 by François Bonnin, posted net subscriptions of USD400m. This is a small feat in the world of alternative management. But it must be added that the firm is specialised in CTA (commodity trading advisory, or trading on financial markets, fixed income, equities indexes, currencies and commodities), one of the few alternative strategies to have performed well in the current conditions.John Locke now manages a total of USD700m in assets, for mainly institutional and foreign clients. ?Common funds for intervention on futures markets (fonds commun d’intervention sur les marchés à terme, or FCIMT) are more difficult to sell in France than in other countries, as Swiss and American investors have a big appetite for this type of product,? explains Bonnin, president and CEO of the alternative management firm. The company has opened a representative office in Chicago, the world’s largest centre for futures trading, operated by its US affiliate John Locke Investments Inc.This year, John Locke is hoping to shift into high gear, and to double its assets under management to USD1.3bn by the end of 2009. ?To strengthen our presence in the French institutional market is one of our priorities,? says Bonnin. The firm has three funds on sale in France: Cyril Systematic, Cyril Haute Fréquence and John Locke Commodity Long-Flat. After the conversion of the Cyril Haute Fréquence fund into a diversified FCP fund, ?the proportion of inflows coming from French investors will increase rapidly,? he predicts.

Of the 81 management firms which provide data to the Inverco association, 28 (or 34.6%) posted net subscriptions in January, while the profession as a whole showed outflows of EUR1.81bn from securities funds. The firms which posted a net inflow are small to mid-sized: only seven of them have assets of over EUR1bn, while two have more than EUR2bn, namely Caixa Catalunya Gestión (EUR2.76bn in assets) and EUR46.9m in net subscriptions in January, and BBK Gestión with EUR2.45bn and EUR23.2m in net inflows. However, the two heavyweights in the sector, BBVA Gestión (EUR33.02bn) and Santander Asset Management (EUR32.31bn) have posted net outflows of EUR1.36bn and EUR966m, respectively.

The current crisis will strengthen the interest of institutional investors in socially responsible investment in the years to come. 86% of these investors share this opinion, according to a survey undertaken in January by Seeds Finance for Sparinvest for 39 directors of investment or heads of investment at French institutionals representing more than EUR300bn in assets. When words come to deeds, the candidates are more numerous, but all the same, 71% of respondents estimate that the crisis will strengthen interest in SRI, particularly in their own portfolios. Commenting on the results of this study in Paris on Thursday, Ulrika Hasselgren, founder and CEO of Ethix, an SRI advising firm based in Stockholm, estimates that this more marked interest can generally be explained by the fact that the crisis has thrown harsh light on poor business practices. She says ?the crisis represents an occasion for investors to found a new, more sustainable form of investment.? Currently, 56% of institutions or firms surveyed have an SRI attitude in general. Within financial management specifically, 45% of respondents said they have integrated SRI into their investment and manager selection process. But not all of them are involved in the same way. On one side, there are the ?timid? ones, says Benoît Schouler, CEO of Sparinvest in France, for whom SRI represents less than 1% of overall allocation (this category represents 35% of the population). On the other hand, there are the ?involved? ones, who have more than 10% of their portfolios in SRI (24%).Ways of investing also differ, according to investors. 32% use a ?sustainable development, new themes? approach, while the ?best in class? and ESG approaches are preferred by 22% of respondents. The last lesson of the study is that 95% of investors are sensitive to the quality of reporting on extrafinancial variables when they select an SRI fund.

After a dip of 0.06% in December, the Hennessee hedge fund index has posted an average performance of 1.10% in January, while the strategy offering the best results was convertible arbitrage, which has gained 5.79%.

Le coût des sauvetages bancaires pour les finances publiques suscite une inquiétude grandissante

Dans un contexte de contraction des placements financiers, l'arbitrage se fera au détriment des livrets, selon l'Observatoire Caisse d'Epargne

Le coût des sauvetages bancaires pour les finances publiques suscite une inquiétude grandissante

Selon La Tribune, après les 2 milliards d’euros perçus en décembre, Allied Irish bank et Bank of Ireland vont à nouveau recevoir 3,5 milliards chacune sous forme de capitaux Tier 1 de la part du gouvernement irlandais. En échange de cette aide, les banques se sont notamment engagées à réduire d’au moins un tiers la rémunération des dirigeants, précise le quotidien.

«Le fait d'être pluridisciplinaires nous a permis de résister relativement bien», a déclaré mercredi Xavier Lépine, président d’UFG. En 2008, la société de gestion a certes accusé des rachats nets de 1,86 milliard d’euros sur l’alternatif, et vu ses encours dans ce domaine revenir de 3,54 milliards fin 2007 à 1,49 milliard d’euros fin 2008.Mais cette décollecte a en partie été compensée par des souscriptions nettes sur tous ses autres métiers : l’immobilier (+402 millions d’euros), les valeurs mobilières (+664 millions), le private equity (+28 millions) et les assurances (+163 millions). Au total, UFG limite sur l’année les rachats nets à 612 millions d’euros et voit ses encours baisser à 19,5 milliards d’euros, contre 21 milliards fin 2007. En janvier de cette année, bien que la décollecte se poursuive sur la gestion alternative (-84 millions), UFG enregistre des souscriptions nettes de 812 millions d’euros, notamment grâce aux valeurs mobilières, ce qui permet à la société de repasser la barre des 20 milliards d’euros d’encours. En 2009 toujours, UFG va enrichir son offre avec un nouveau thème : l’investissement socialement responsable. La société a en effet acquis une participation majoritaire dans Sarasin AM, la filiale française de la banque suisse Sarasin, avec laquelle elle va créer une société de gestion, UFG Sarasin, qui démarrera avec 500 millions d’euros d’encours. Dans ce cadre, l’ensemble de la gestion actions d’UFG sera ainsi «ISRisée» comme le dit Bertrand Fournier, président du directoire de Sarasin AM. Mais l’ISR a aussi vocation à s’appliquer aussi aux autres classes d’actifs gérées par UFG. Ainsi, sur l’immobilier, la société de gestion vient de lancer un OPCI ISR (lire article sur le sujet). Des réflexions sont aussi menées sur le private equity et même la gestion alternative.

Selon La Tribune, James Crosby, le vice-président du régulateur financier britannique, proche de Gordon Brown, le Premier ministre britannique, a démissionné hier, car il était suspecté d’avoir été trop laxiste quand il était à la tête de HBOS. James Crosby, était directeur de HBOS jusqu’en 2006, c’est-à-dire avant sa nationalisation.

Le capital-investisseur allemand Arques Industries indique avoir acquis pour un montant non communiqué la société d’auto-écoles British School of Motoring Ltd auprès de RAC plc, filiale d’Aviva. Il s’agit d’un réseau employant environ 2.700 moniteurs et exploitant une centaine de centres de services. C’est le leader sur le marché britannique, avec une part de marché d’environ 10 % et un chiffre d’affaires de 34 millions de livres en 2008. Arques précise que, conformément à son business model, il a repris BSM sans dette. Pour Aviva, cette cession entre dans le cadre d’une politique de centrage sur son c?ur de métier.

le fonds de pension public Första AP-fonden (AP1) indique avoir réalisé pour 2008 une perte de 48 milliards de couronnes (moins de 4,6 milliards d’euros) ou de 21,9 % sur ses investissements, son encours à fin décembre ressortant à un peu moins de 172 milliards de couronnes contre 219 milliards.Le fonds a l’intention de réduire l’effectif dédié à la gestion active pour se focaliser sur son c?ur de métier, l’allocation d’actifs stratégique. Cela se traduira par la suppression de 20 emplois et par une diminution de 25 % par an des charges d’exploitation une fois cette réorganisation parachevée.

Standard Life va dépenser 100 millions de livres pour dédommager les investisseurs du Pension Sterling Fund, un fonds monétaire supposé être sûr mais qui a en fait perdu de l’argent en étant investi sur des produits exotiques, rapporte le Financial Times. En un jour, le fonds a perdu 4,8 %, lorsque Standard Life a réévalué les ABS qui constituent la moitié du portefeuille.

La Financial Services Authority s'était inquiétée de la gestion du risque de HBOS dès 2002 a-t-on appris mercredi, rapporte le Financial Times. Dans le même temps, Sir James Crosby, ancien directeur général de la banque, a démissionné de son poste de vice-président de la FSA après avoir été accusé d’ignorer les alertes concernant la croissance rapide de HBOS.

La Commission luxembourgeoise de surveillance du secteur financier (CSSF) a décidé, le 10 février, de retirer de la liste et de demander la liquidation judiciaire de la Sicav Herald (Lux), dont le compartiment US Absolute Return Fund est exposé à Bernard Madoff.Cela s’inscrit «dans le cadre de l"établissement des responsabilités des différents partis en relation avec Herald (Lux) et sa banque dépositaire HSBC Securities Services (Luxembourg) S.A. et afin de sauvegarder au mieux les droits des investisseurs», explique le régulateur.

Les points les plus sensibles des assemblées générales d"avril-mai prochain devraient être la rémunération des dirigeants, la composition des conseils, mais aussi les «mauvaises nouvelles» à annoncer et les stratégies de sortie de crise, selon le cabinet de d"études et de conseils InvestorSight. Afin de prévenir des contestations prévisibles, les administrateurs des sociétés ont commencé très en amont leur travail de préparation des assemblées générales d"avril-mai prochain, relève le cabinet spécialisé dans les relations investisseurs, qui a mené une étude en janvier à ce sujet.La mobilisation des actionnaires avait été très forte en 2007 et 2008, avec un quorum moyen de 60% dans les entreprises du CAC 40 et de 66% dans celles du SBF 120. La contestation avait été notable, avec certaines AG houleuses, une majorité d"administrateurs expliquant le phénomène par un «manque de communication et de pédagogie».Dans le contexte de crise économique, la question de la rémunération des dirigeants devrait faire l"objet d"interventions nourries. «Cette question devrait être traitée avec sérieux et transparence, d"autant que les dernières recommandations d"octobre de l» AMF fixent un cadre plus contraignant», estime Bénédicte Hautefort, P-DG d"InvestorSight. De nombreux comités de rémunération ont notamment revu la question des «parachutes dorés», en intégrant tous les éléments de rémunération."Le rôle des conseils d"administration, leur indépendance et la compétence de leurs membres devraient être la deuxième thématique forte des AG», souligne Hélène Solignac, responsable du pôle gouvernance chez InvestorSight.Enfin, les AG du printemps devraient être l"occasion pour les chefs d"entreprise de faire des apparitions remarquées, depuis l"acmé de la crise financière à l"automne dernier.Ils devraient expliquer la stratégie menée par leurs entreprises pour sortir de la crise, au-delà des plans de réduction de coûts et de la recherche de financement à court terme.