Asset management professionals worldwide hold the optimistic opinion that no country will be leaving the euro zone this year, and that budgetary union will be formed in the next 10 years, according to the findings of a survey by the multi-management team at Aviva Investors, of 188 fund managers in major asset classes. While 41% of respondents say that some countries will be leaving the euro zone in the next 10 years, only one quarter of them (23%) think that it will happen this year. Among the remaining 36%, some don’t agree with this prediction, while others think that the exits will be offset by the addition of new countries, or will not occur at all. More than half of respondents (52%) are optimistic about the future of the euro zone, and feel that budgetarr union will be formed in the next 10 years. However, only 41% predict that the ECB or political leaders will take the necessary action to restore confidence in the euro zone during 2012. Mick Mansley, global head of multi-management at Aviva Investors, says that “no consensus is forming among managers as to the future of the euro. While we will continue to evaluate the ability of our managers to consider the consequences of a collapse of the euro zone, the findings show that over ten years, most managers are more optimistic and are predicting that a budgetary union able to assure the future of the euro will be created.” About economic outlooks in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany, 83% of respondents feel that the US economy will show the strongest growth in 2012, compared with only 17% for Germany. Although no managers reel that the United Kingdom would be able to turn in the strongest growth, 48% think that the British economy will have the highest inflation rate. As to their predictions for interest rate increases, half of managers (54%) predict that interest rates will be raised before the end of 2013. The highest and lowest probabilities went to the US and the EU. One third (33%) predict no increase in interest rates before 2014 at the earliest.

In a study entitled «What are the Risks of European ETFs?» which considers the “real” risks related to ETFs in Europe, Edhec finds that in counterparty risk, it is not logical to weigh physical and synthetic replication products against each other, nor to draw a distinction between financed and non-financed swaps. Both distinctions are not wholly relevant in practice, and give a false sense of “relative” security.After pointing out that the vast majority of European ETFs are UCITS-compliant and are therefore exposed to the same risks as any fund that complies with the mutual fund directive, Edhec adds that regardless of the replication techniques used, ETFs are exposed to counterparty risks. Securities lending and borrowing, which is common for physical replication ETFs, expose the fund to counterparty risks as surely as the use of over-the-counter swaps needed for the use of synthetic replication does.Investors “should pay closer attention to the top-priority questions which are determinant in the effective reduction of counterparty risks: the level of guarantee, the quality of assets, and the ability of the fund to enforce its rights on these assets in case of a counterparty default.” In these conditions, “massive marketing and public relations campaigns launched by some ETF providers in order to promote distinctions between types of replication on the basis of counterparty risks are thus misleading, and do not lead to better awareness of the risks on the part of investors,” the study says.

Distributors of financial products, particularly banking groups, are burning their bridges with external asset management firms, preferring to tout their own funds, an article in Financial Times Fund Management first published in Ignites observes. In Germany, Deutsche Bank is reported to have forbidden Postbank from selling third-party funds, in France, Crédit Agricole is said to have asked its regional networks to stop offering funds from outside providers and to focus only on Amundi, its asset management affiliate. Mandarine Gestion says for its part that some fund platforms have stopped working with independent asset managers. Rémi Leservoisier, CEO, says “that could become a problem for boutiques if it becomes systematic.”

Global investors have started 2012 with a reawakened sense of optimism towards the global economy and greater appetite for risk, according to the BofA Merrill Lynch Survey of Fund Managers, undertaken between 6 and 12 January, of a sample of 286 participants representing a cumulative total of USD818bn in assets under management.Is this the result of the year-end truce? Only a net 3 percent believe the world economy will weaken in the coming 12 months down from a net 27 percent in December - the biggest one-month improvement in the growth outlook since May 2009.As an illustration of this newfound appetite for risk, have fallen to their lowest levels since July 2011. Cash now makes up, on average, 4.4 percent of a portfolio, down from 4.9 percent in December. The proportion of investors taking lower than normal levels of risk has improved to a net 33 percent of the panel, compared to a net 42 percent in December.One concern that investors have highlighted is geopolitical risk. The proportion of respondents viewing geopolitical risk as «above normal» has jumped to 69 percent from 48 percent last month. This has, in the past, been correlated with a spike in the oil price."Investors are tip-toeing rather than hurtling toward higher risk exposure,» says Michael Hartnett, chief global equity strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. The U.S. market and high quality cyclical sectors, such as energy and tech, have been the main beneficiaries of lower cash holdings. Despite improvement in global and European growth expectations asset allocators remain deeply skeptical towards European equities, especially banks.A net 28 percent are overweight U.S. equities, up from a net 23 percent in December. A net 31 percent remain underweight eurozone equities, an improvement from a net 35 percent a month ago but the second-worst reading on record. Technology has regained its status as the most favored global sector, highlighting the uptick in risk appetite after the defensive positioning at the end of 2011. The net percentage of investors overweight technology rose to 39 from a net 31 percent in December, overtaking Pharmaceuticals. U.S. fund managers are returning to banks while Europeans continue to reject them. The proportion of U.S. fund managers underweight banks has fallen to a net 16 percent from 32 percent last month. European fund managers have extended their underweights - a net 50 percent are underweight banks.

The fourth-largest US banking group, Wells Fargo & Company, in 2011 earned record net profits of USD15.9bn, up 28% compared with 2010.Assets in the wealth management division as of 31 December were down 2% compared with the end of 2010, to a total of USD198bn.Net profits for the wealth management/retirement/brokerage unit increased to USD325m last year, compared with USD199m in 2010.

The pension fund CalPERS has sold a portfolio of undeveloped land for the construction of 16,300 homes in eleven US states, which represents about 20% of its residential land portfolio, to a joint venture by the real estate developer Newland Real Estate Group of San Diego and an affiliate of the Japanese firm Sekisui House, the Wall Street Journal reports.The transaction is reported to have gone through at a total price of USD500m to USD600m, which means that CalPERs, which acquired the land over a 5-year period beginning in 2002, has made a total loss of 30% to 50%, according to sources familiar with the matter.

The Siparex group last year earned “excellent operating returns,” cementing its position in the financing of FrenchSMBs and ETIs, the chairman of the group, Bertrand Rambaud, announced on 17 January at a press conference. “We are highly satisfied with the year 2011, in which our objectives have been exceeded,” says Rambaud, adding that assets under management now exceed EUR1.1bn. Total investments last year totalled EUR85.5m, up 25% compared with 2010. Sales, up 44% to EUR160m, brought EUR79m in gains (+43%), for a sales multiple of 2. In terms of fundraising, the period ended with inflows of EUR170m, the closing of the Siparex MidCap II fund at EUR120m, and a partnership with Crédit Agricole, a reinvestment of 85% by subscribers of the previous vehicle and the presence of family offices representing 25% of the fund. The Crédit Agricole Centre Est and Predica, repeat and loyal subscribers to Siparex, with seven regional banks of the Crédit Agricole network, represent one third of subscriptions to the Siparex MidCap II fund, and top the list of institutional investors in this new vehicle, with a total of EUR40m. Fundraising was also driven by new ideas such as the creation of SCR Solid, and a first closing at EUR3m, with financing from employee savings. The Siparex gorup has also won two public requests for proposals for regional fund management, totalling EUR21m, and has also raised EUR20m from FIP and FCPI entities. EUR143m were returned to subscribers, up from EUR104m in 2010.

Midi Capital last year posted a significant increase in its assets in low-tax products, to EUR60m, out of overall assets of EUR100m, up from EUR40m at the end of 2010. Inflows in 2011 totalled EUR22m, up 43% compared with 2010, while at the same time, overall French inflows fell by 20%. “We are highly satisfied with inflows for ISF and IR, which despite the changes ushered in by the Finance Law of 2011 and the government’s desire to reduce tax breaks this year demonstrate that subscribers are interests in these simple wealth diversification products, which are decorrelated from the financial marktes, anchored in the real economy, and which in addition to the tax advantage, also offer attractive potential returns. Our positioning at the core of regional economies, with a strong involvement in developing our participations, has been well-received by distribution networks, and has allowed us to gain market share,” says Karine Alet, director of distribution. In 2011, Midi Capital invested EUR18m in 20 regional SMBs, largely in capital development and transmission. The past year was also marked by a sale of 7 SMBs. The average internal rate of return on the sales is over 21%.

Lazard has launched a fund which aims to earn returns in line with the market, but with volatility 20% to 40% lower than the MSCI World index, Investment Week reports. The Global Controlled Volatility fund, based in Dublin, is managed by a team led by Susanne Willumsen in London and Paul Moghtader in Boston. The portfolio will include 250 to 350 shares, and will have a turnover of 40% to 60% per year.

The British asset management firm Liontrust will launch an Asian income fund in early March, Investment Week reports. It will be managed by Mark Williams, who recently joined the group when Linotrust acquired the specialist emerging markets boutique Occam. The fund, which will aim to earn high returns from capital appreciation and revenues, will have an objective of returns about 10% higher than the MSCI All-Country Asia ex Japan index. The fund will be domiciled in the United Kingdom, with a minimal investment of GBP1,000 and management fees of 1.5% per year.

The Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems (CPSS) of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and the technical committee of the International Organisation of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) on 17 January published their final report on the operation of registries that would centralise and redistribute information about over-the-counter (OTC) derivative instruments. Some questions remain regarding how best to address current data gaps and define authorities’ access to TRs. As requested by the G20, two internationally coordinated working groups will address these questions in the coming year. The FSB will establish an ad hoc group of experts to further consider means of filling current data gaps, while the CPSS and IOSCO will establish a joint group to examine authorities’ access to trade repositories.

As of the end of December, Austrian funds had EUR134.59bn in assets under management, compared with EUR133.2bn one month yearlier, and EUR145bn one year previously. Assets in 2011 fell by EUR10.66bn, or 7.34%, of which EUR4.68bn were due to net redemptions, EUR2.2bn to dividends, and EUR3.79bn in capital losses (market effects), the VÖIG association of management firms reports.The 24 asset management firms in the country as of the end of the year had 2,159 securities funds, of which 1,137 were retail funds, 265 were funds dedicated to groups of large investors, and 757 were institutional funds. Overall, 131 funds were liquidated, and 20 were merged, while 122 were launched.Assets at the five real estate fund management firms increased last year by EUR478.42m, or about 20%, to a total of slightly over EUR2.9bn. Net subscriptions totalled EUR427m, while dividends represented EUR47m, and average annual returns totalled 3.1%.

According to the Portuguese investment fund, pension and wealth association (Associação Portuguesa de Fundos de Investimento, Pensões e Patrimónios, or AFPIPP), liquid assets in Portuguese real estate funds as of the end of December totalled only EUR11.2762bn, 1.1% more than at the end of November, and 2% less than the EUR11.4918bn observed twelve months earlier. Real estate assets, for their part, totalled EUR14.3283bn, up 1.2% in November, and 1.5% compared with the end of December 2010.The three largest firms are Fundimo, with EUR1.565bn (-7% year on year), Interfundos, with EUR1.1295bn (+0.6%), and ESAF-FI, with EUR1.110bn (-14%).

The asset management firm Ossiam, specialised in the development of ETFs based on strategy indices, today released the FTSE 100 Minimum Variance ETF. The fund, which is listed on the London Stock Exchange, is reserved exclusively for British investors. The product thus is constructed similarly to the “Minimum Variance” range. By simultaneously applying liquidity filters – in this case, 95% of the most liquid shares of the FTSE 100 index are used as the selection universe – and also limiting the maximum weight of any single stock in the portfolio to 4.5% and of any sector to 20%, while ensuring diversification of shares and undertaking a quarterly rebalancing of the index, volatility is reduced by more than 24% on average, compared with the benchmark index. Drawdowns are also significantly reduced.With the launch of this ETF, Ossiam is also for the first time offering a product that uses physical replication. Isabelle Bourcier has told Newsmanagers that the choice was a commercial one above all. “The FTSE 100 index is an indicator which is commonly used in the UK by private banks, wealth managers, etc., who are highly attached to physical replication.” The product has another particularity: shares held by Ossiam are not lent out. Clearly, physical replication has a cost: higher tracking error, averaging 0.25% per year, due to the cost of trading shares on the London Stock Exchange.

The hedge funds that earned the largest inflows in 2011 were CTA or managed futures funds and macro funds, with a net total of USD19bn and USD17bn, respectively, Eurekahedge reports. In total, hedge funds have posted net subscriptions of USD51bn for the year, while they have lost 4.15% overall. However, 500 funds have made more than 10% in the twelve months under review. Despite an inglorious year, the pace of fund launches was sustained in 2011, with more than 1,100 new products on the market.

The French financial management association AFG on 17 January announced that the chief investment officer at CPR AM, Arnaud Faller, has become chairman of the technical management committee at the professional association. He succeeds Bernard Descreux, who is leaving La Banque Postale AM. At the core of AFG’s activities the technical management committee relies on several specialist working groups. The main themes in the past few months have been work on transposing the UCITS IV directive and the MiFID II directive for markets and complex products, responses to consultations by ESMA about ETFs and structured funds (particularly about methods for calculating liabilities for formula funds), response to a European commission consultation on ratings, responses to consultations from the Financial Stability Board on money market funds and ETFs, and the measurement of global risk and risk management in relation to the AMF. THE AFG reporter for the committee is Adina Gurau-Audibert.

The Association nationale des sociétés par actions (ANSA) on 17 January announced the appointment of Christian Schricke as deputy CEO. In this position, he replaces Robert Baconnier, who had served in this position since January 2005, and who is retiring. Baconnier nonetheless remains as chairman of the association until the next meeting of the board of directors on 9 February 2012, when a new chairman will be elected. Schricke, who has been advisor to the chairman of the Société Générale group since September 2009, has been a member of the AMF college since May 2011.

Jeff Munroe, currently chief investment officer, is to step down in order to lead Newton’s global equities effort. Newton is redefining the role of CIO to ensure its focus on execution of the investment process and effectiveness of the firm’s idea generation. Simon Pryke, who has been responsible for private clients and charities at Newton since November 2009, will assume this new role.Caroline Tye will assume responsibility for Newton’s Private Clients business. She joined Newton in 1998 and is currently head of UK private clients. Subject to regulatory approval she will join Newton’s Board.Finally, Jon Bell, currently investment leader, global equities, will be joining Newton’s multi asset team in a new role.

Thomson Reuters GFMS, which yesterday published its 2011 report on gold, is predicting more record peaks this year, Les Echos reports. The price of gold may exceed USD2,000 per ounce later this year or in 2013. In the short term, the institute is more prudent, as after a massive average increase of 28% in 2011, the price of gold may consolidate. It is predicting an average price in first half of USD1,640 per ounce.

The Markit group, specialised in financial information, on 17 January announced that it was adding to its CDS product range with the publication of a daily report on sensitivity, which will provide clients with information about relationships between CDS prices and other market variables. The new services, Markit CDS Sensitivities, will provide a way to evaluate the sensitivity of a CDS spread to fluctuations in interest rates and credit quality, among others.

Companies of the CAC 40 index last year distributed EUR44.6bn in the form of dividends and share repurchases, up 15% compared with 2010, according to the newsletter vernimmen.net, Les Echos reports. Total and France Télécom are still at the top of the rankings of the biggest “payers.” Sanofi takes third place. These three giants represent about 30% of the amounts paid last year. A notable phenomenon is that share repurchases were the area that grew most overall, as share prices fell: buybacks (net of sales) totalled EUR5.7bn, nearly triple their level in 2010 (EUR1.95bn). Bouygues, which last year launched a vast share repurchasing programme, is the largest contributor to this total. For their parti, dividends paid last year increased by 6%, to EUR38.49bn, while 2010 results showed a net rebound.

A l’issue d’un appel d’offres lancé en 2011 sans l’aide d’un consultant, la Caisse Fédérale du Crédit Mutuel Maine Anjou de Basse Normandie a sélectionné Amundi pour investir 6 millions d’euros dans le cadre d’un fonds ouvert de gestion alternative.

L’Institut Curie est doté d’un budget annuel de plus de 300 millions d’euros dont 9 % issus de la générosité du public. Le pilotage stratégique du portefeuille de titres est assuré par le trésorier, assisté du comité financier. La gestion des actifs à moyen / long terme a été entièrement déléguée à des prestataires. Seule la gestion de la trésorerie reste internalisée. En juillet 2011, avec l’aide du consultant Amadeis, il a été décidé de remettre en jeu un FCP dédié de gestion diversifiée pour un montant de 15 millions d’euros. A l’issue de l’appel d’offres, la société de gestion Edmond de Rothschild IM a été retenue.

Le Fonds de garantie américain des dépôts a proposé que les banques détenant plus de 10 milliards de dollars d’actifs conduisent eux-mêmes des tests de résistance chaque année. La FDIC soumettrait ainsi avant mi-novembre trois scénarios économiques auxquels les établissements seraient tenus de se confronter. Ils renverraient alors un rapport en début d’année. Cette proposition, soumise à consultation, fait écho à un dispositif du même type présenté par la Fed l’an dernier.

Le conseil d’administration du FMI, qui dispose actuellement d’une capacité de 350 milliards de dollars, a évoqué hier l’augmentation des ressources du fonds, a déclaré hier sa directrice générale Christine Lagarde. Ce matin, le Chancelier de l’Echiquier britannique a déclaré avoir discuté avec son homologue japonais des moyens d’une contribution des deux pays à la crise européenne.

La croissance manufacturière dans l’Etat de New York s’est accélérée en janvier, pour atteindre son niveau le plus élevé en neuf mois dans un contexte de progression à la fois des commandes et de l’emploi, a fait savoir la Réserve fédérale de New York. L’indice dit «Empire State» est ressorti à 13,48 contre 8,19 (révisé) en décembre et un consensus le donnant à 11. Il est au plus haut depuis avril 2011.

La Commission européenne a ouvert hier une triple procédure d’infraction contre la Hongrie pour ses lois sur la banque centrale, le pouvoir judiciaire et l’autorité de contrôle des données. Le collège des commissaires européens a par ailleurs décidé de ramener à un mois - contre deux en temps normal - le temps octroyé à Budapest pour répondre à ces inquiétudes et modifier ces lois. «Nous espérions que les autorités hongroises feraient les changements nécessaires pour se conformer au droit européen. Cela n’ayant pour l’instant pas été le cas, nous avons lancé une procédure contre ces violations», a expliqué hier le président de la CE. Le Premier ministre Viktor Orban doit venir à Bruxelles le 24 janvier pour évoquer ces question, a précisé José Manuel Barroso. Budapest a assuré vouloir répondre à la totalité des inquiétudes de la Commission, sans passer par la case judiciaire.

Le gouvernement central espagnol a décidé d’octroyer des lignes de crédit aux 17 régions endettées dans le but de rembourser leurs créances externes et compte allonger de 5 ans la durée de remboursement des 31 milliards d’euros de dette contractée auprès de l’administration centrale. En contrepartie, le gouvernement imposera des sanctions aux régions qui n’auront pas respecté leurs objectifs budgétaires. «Nous sommes tous dans le même bateau » a indiqué Cristobal Montoro, le ministre du budget.

Les investissements directs étrangers (IDE) en Chine ont progressé de 9,7% en 2011 à 116 milliards de dollars malgré une chute de 12,7% en décembre à 12,24 milliards, selon les données publiées ce matin par le ministère du commerce. Les IDE provenant des Etats-Unis ont plongé de 26,1% à 3 milliards et les IDE européens ont progressé de 3,65% à 6,3 milliards.

Les associés des SCPI Accès Pierre, Valeur Pierre Union et Valeur Pierre Alliance, d’une part, et Investipierre et Immobilière Privée-France Pierre, d’autre part, gérées par BNP Paribas REIM France, ont approuvé leur fusion. La SCPI fusionnée « Accès Valeur Pierre » devient ainsi l’une des toutes premières SCPI en France en termes de capitalisation avec 133 actifs représentant une valeur de réalisation de l’ordre de 1,3 milliard d’euros.