Pour Antoine Billot, professeur de sciences économiques à l’Université de Paris II et membre honoraire de l’Institut Universitaire de France, la crise va favoriser le renouveau du chartisme même si cette discipline doit encore trouver son langage théorique.Comme Antoine Billot, Thami Kabbaj, thésard et auteur d’un livre sur la psychologie des traders (Editions Eyrolles), considère que la revanche du chartisme passe aussi par la reconnaissance du monde académique. - Newsmanagers.com : Pourquoi le chartisme est-il tant décrié ? Antoine Billot/Thami Kabbaj : Le chartisme ? l"analyse technique financière popularisée en Occident par Charles Dow, le créateur du Wall Street Journal ? a fait l"objet d"une véritable campagne de démolition systématique à partir des années 60. Au mieux l"assimilait-on alors à une approche financière de la voyance (une boule de cristal en guise de modèle), au pire à une conception nocive autant qu"archaïque des marchés financiers ; on traitait les chartistes de noise traders et ? défaut suprême ? on considérait l"analyse technique comme moins noble que l"analyse fondamentale en ceci que, d"essence empirique, elle n"était pas parée des atours rassurants et abscons de la science. C"est ainsi que, malgré sa relative jeunesse, l"analyse fondamentale a très vite réussi à s"imposer auprès du monde académique puis, par contagion, à convertir ceux des jeunes traders qui, de par leur formation, étaient a priori plus sensibles au charme élitiste d"une équation mathématique qu"à celui, apparemment plébéien, d"une analyse empirico-statistique. - Le chartisme a-t-il, malgré tout, conservé sa place dans l’univers de la gestion d’actifs ? AB/TK : Au terme de cette campagne de dénigrement, force est de constater que l"aura du chartisme n"a pas diminué auprès du grand public ni d"ailleurs auprès des professionnels les plus méfiants, c"est-à-dire les plus roués aux caprices des marchés. Bien au contraire. Ainsi, des gérants aussi renommés que Steve Alan Cohen, Bruce Kovner ou Paul Tudor Jones, qui opèrent sur les marchés depuis plusieurs décennies et affichent régulièrement des performances très élevées, restent des partisans affichés de l"analyse technique. - Pourquoi le chartisme conserve-t-il cette «popularité " ? AB/ TK : Les raisons de la résistance du chartisme sont multiples. D"abord, l"analyse fondamentale est comme un «torchon sur un télescope» quand il s"agit de prévoir une crise majeure (bulle spéculative, krach?) : en mars 2000, 99% des analystes de Wall Street étaient résolument acheteurs ; plus récemment encore, en dehors de quelques très rares exceptions comme Nouriel Roubini, aucun fondamentaliste «intégriste» ne parvenait à anticiper les conséquences de la crise des subprimes. Ensuite, les scandales qui ont émaillé la vie financière de ces dernières années (Enron, Parmalat, WorldCom, EADS, etc.) démontrent à l"évidence l"effet éminemment pervers des asymétries informationnelles que les fondamentalistes nient par aveuglement théorique ou par idéologie. Enfin, certains économistes comme Cheol-Ho Park ou Scott H. Irwin font état de ce que sur 92 analyses récentes fondées sur l"analyse technique, 58 publient des résultats positifs et seulement 24 études des résultats négatifs. De même, de nombreux sondages réalisés auprès des professionnels démontrent que pour une grande majorité d"opérateurs l"analyse technique s"affirme comme la méthode la plus efficace afin d"anticiper les cours boursiers à court terme autant qu"à moyen terme. En outre, dès 1983, des économistes comme Meese et Rogoff révélaient que les modèles macroéconomiques classiques prévoyaient moins bien l"évolution des taux de change malgré la sophistication des techniques statistiques employées que les modèles naïfs fondés sur de simples moyennes mobiles. - Pourquoi le succès du chartisme est-il, malgré tout, limité ? AB/TK : Malgré son succès avéré donc auprès des opérateurs financiers, le chartisme n"a pas encore réussi à acquérir de véritable légitimité au-delà d"un certain cercle. C"est que la revanche du chartisme ne peut passer que par la reconnaissance du monde académique. Et les nombreux éléments empiriques et théoriques cités plus haut ne parviennent pas pour l"instant à le convaincre tout à fait ? en raison sans doute d"une méconnaissance de cette approche plutôt que d"une réticence argumentée à son endroit. Même si, ces dernières années, plusieurs recherches ont été menées qui prouvent la réelle efficacité de l"analyse technique ? Carol Osler, économiste à la réserve fédérale américaine, ou Andrew Lo, responsable du département ingénierie financière du MIT, ont ainsi montré (séparément) qu"il était possible d"anticiper correctement les mouvements à court terme grâce à l"analyse technique ? le chartisme doit encore inventer son langage théorique, celui avec lequel il s"adressera au monde académique pour le convaincre. - Comment améliorer la scienticité du chartisme ? AB/TK : Plusieurs pistes sont actuellement suivies par les théoriciens qui défrichent le sujet. D"abord, l"analyse technique a depuis longtemps pris la mesure de l"importance de la psychologie dans la détermination des cours boursiers et cela, bien avant les travaux effectués par les comportementalistes ? lesquels insistent désormais sur l"importance des biais psychologiques dans l"explication des anomalies boursières sans toutefois en tirer de conclusions particulières. L"analyse technique, qui repose avant tout sur l"existence de comportements récurrents chez les opérateurs, produit déjà, quant à elle, des figures chartistes, c"est-à-dire en réalité des modèles graphiques aptes à décrire certaines des nuances les plus fines de la psychologie des intervenants. - Y-a-t-il d’autres pistes ? AB/TK Ensuite, une deuxième piste semble particulièrement prometteuse : celle reposant sur la Case Based Decision Theory. Selon cette théorie récente, la prise de décision en situation d"incertitude est essentiellement fondée sur l"expérience accumulée au sein de la mémoire des décisions passées. Et contrairement à l"analyse fondamentale qui est «rule-based» plutôt que «case-based», l"analyse technique requiert précisément, afin de prédire l"avenir, de repérer les récurrences dans la séquence des données passées.

Selon L"Agefi suisse, les vingt valeurs de l"indice phare de la Bourse de Zurich devraient verser moins de 68 francs aux investisseurs, soit 23% de moins que lors de l"exercice précédent. Mais cette chute de 23% des dividendes en 2008 est moindre que l"effondrement de 35% de l"indice SMI sur la même durée.

Selon La Tribune, La stabilisation du rouble et la légère reprise du pétrole ont permis à la Bourse moscovite Micex (cotée en rouble) de reprendre de l’allant en février, RTS de Moscou (cotée en dollars) dégageant, elle, un «petit» 1,8 % de progression, toujours pour février. «Aussi longtemps que le baril reste au-dessus des 40 dollars et que la Banque centrale russe maintient un strict contrôle administratif sur sa devise, les marchés russes devraient continuer à bien se porter (?)», explique notamment Chris Weafer, stratège chez UralSib à Moscou, dans les colonnes du quotidien.

Sir Philipe Hampton, le président de Royal Bank of Scotland, banque détenue en majorité par les contribuables britanniques, s’est vu accorder des stock-options pour 1,5 million de livres, en plus d’un salaire de 750.000 livres, rapporte le Financial Times.

La livre sterling a souffert du prix de l’immobilier au Royaume-Uni, qui a reculé de 10 % en un an. La nouvelle a pénalisé la monnaie britannique, qui a décroché de 2,14 % à 1,4040 dollar.

US investors are facing the worst year of falling dividends since 1938, according to estimates by Standard & Poor’s, cited by the Financial Times. Big businesses worldwide are cutting back their dividend payments to shareholders. The most recent firms to have done so are HSBC, PNC Financial, and International Paper.

The Pound Sterling has suffered due to news that real estate values in the United Kingdom have fallen 10% in one year. The British currency fell 2.14% on the news, to USD1.4040.

On Monday, Blackstone announced that Gérard Errera, who for the past two years has been secretary general at the French foreign ministry, will take over on 1 April as special advisor to the group. He will be based in Paris, and will be a member of the international advisory board at the private equity investment firm. In his new role, Errera will focus primarily on the development of Blackstone’s activities in France and continental Europe. He is currently also a member of the boards of directors at EDF and Areva.

Reyl France on Monday announced that it has received a new license from the French market regulator, the Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF), to select and incorporate hedge funds into its dynamic management mandates, which will allow it to optimise the diversification of portfolios. The management firm says it ?succeeded in demonstrating that the human and electronic procedures deployed internally ensure that clients will receive optimal management of risks related to indirect alternative management activities.?However, Dorothée Marty, chair, says that in the short term, Reyl France is in ?no hurry? to make use of alternative management products.

?To satisfy strong demand from investors,? Barclays Global Investors (BGI) has decided to launch five physically-based ETF funds bearing the iShares brand by the end of the month. The products will be listed on the LSE, and include the iShares Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Bond, iShares Barclays Capital Euro Aggregate Bond and iShares Barclays Capital Euro Corporate Bond, based on the Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond indexes.The other two products are the iShares Barclays Capital Euro Treasury Bond 0-1, which will replicate the performance of a basket of fixed-rate government bonds denominated in Euros with maturities of 0 to 12 months, and the iShares Citigroup Global Government Bond, which covers 500 government bonds issued by G7 countries.

The private equity investment firm J.C. Flowers has announced the resignation of Renate Krümmer, with effect from 31 March. Krümmer has been director of the firm’s activities in Germany since early 2007, and was behind its disastrous investments in Hypo Real Estate (HRE) and HSH Nordbank, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reports.

Infobolsa, a 50/50 joint venture by Bolsas y Mercados Españoles (BME) and Deutsche Börse, has signed an agreement with the Spanish firm VDOS Stochastics to make all information on investment funds, Sicav funds, foreign management firms, and retirement savings plans produced by VDOS Stochastics available on Infobolsa terminals in Spain. Cinco Días states that Infobolsa and VDOS will launch join commercial activities, to serve management professionals and distribute services and investment fund analysis tools.

According to Mercer, Spanish retirement savings plans suffered average losses of 2.3% in February, bringing losses since the beginning of the year to 4.1%, Expansión reports. The worst results were for plans specialised in Euro equities, which lost 11.7% in February and 19.1% in the first two months of 2009. Over one year, these plans show losses of 34%.

Sir Philip Hampton, chairman of the Royal Bank of Scotland, a bank in which British taxpayers control a majority stake, has been granted GBP1.5m in stock options, in addition to his GBP750,000 salary, the Financial Times reports.

Terra Firma, the private equity firm controlled by Guy Hands, has written down the value of its EUR2.6bn investment in EMI by half, the Financial Times reports.

Lombard Odier has announced the appointment of Michael Kuenzi as director for eastern countries, including Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia. Kuenzi joins the firm from UBS, where he was previously head of wealth management for Russia.

In a statement published on 2 March, the activist investor Knight Vinke has claimed ?revenge? as HSBC has announced a write-down on its investment in Household International. ?For two years, Knight Vinke has asked HSBC to withdraw from the US subprime market ? to concentrate on markets where it had a real competitive advantage, ,? the statement says. ?The board of directors has finally admitted that its catastrophic investment in Household International, described not long ago by the board of directors as a ‘dream portfolio,’ was valueless.?Knight Vinke remains concerned, since it claims HSBC still overestimates the value of its US subprime assets by USD34bn.

Vivek Kudva, president for India, has been appointed managing director of Franklin Templeton Investments, and will be in charge of India and also the entirety of Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (CEEMEA), with effect from 1 March, Global Pensions reports. Harshendu Bindal will become president of asset management for India from 1 April; he was previously senior director for the CEEMEA region. Both will be based in Mumbai.

SEI announced on Monday that it has launched a new range of services aimed at wealth managers in the United Kingdom and available on its Global Wealth Platform, launched two years ago. The services will allow clients to more efficiently generate accounts for their clients, and will provide the necessary compliance characteristics in an evolving regulatory environment. Wealth managers will also be able to make grouped transactions involving all of their clients, and to create client reports grouped by family or by type of client. The new services will also provide wealth managers with risk configuration options and tools to improve pre- and post-trade compliance of investments.

The publicly traded fund KKR Financial Holdings has posted a loss for fourth quarter of USD1.2bn, or USD7.85 per share, compared with net profits of USD59.9m, or 52 cents per share, in October-December 2007. For last year as a whole, losses total USD1.1bn, or 7.68 per share, compared with net profits of USD100.2m, or USD1.11 per share, the previous year.The fund will pay no dividend for fourth quarter 2008, and is planning to pay no cash dividends in 2009. The directors estimate, however, that the fund has sufficient liquidity or access to liquidity to keep up with its financial liabilities for at least the next twelve months.

The Universities Superannuation Scheme (USS, GBP23bn in assets) has made its first recruitment as part of a new policy which will aim to double the proportion of its portfolio allocated to hedge funds to 20% in the mid-term. The pension fund has recruited Emily Porter as portfolio manager for its absolute performance strategies program; she will report to Mike Powell, head of alternative assets.Professional Pensions reports that Porter was previously investment director at Key Asset Management, where she was in charge of research for event-driven and distressed hedge funds, and managed the portfolios of multi-strategy funds of hedge funds.

Professional Pensions reports that the International Corporate Governance Network (ICGN), which includes institutional investors worth USD9.5trn, has called on shareholders to ensure that companies they invest in have put in place preventative and disciplinary structures to combat corruption. In the document, which includes a checklist, the ICGN also recommends that investors themselves set up the corresponding controls at their own organisations.

Tilney Investment Management announced on Monday that it is changing the name of its commercial brand Tilney Private Wealth Management to Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management (PWM). David Campbell, former CEO of Tilney, becomes global head of global investment solutions at Deutsche Bank PWM. He says the name change aims to reassure existing clients and to attract new ones. The Deutsche Bank group acquired Tilney in December 2007. The firm Tilney Investment Management will continue to exist legally.

After the announcement by BBVA of the closure of Próxima Alfa (see Newsmanagers of 27 February), total assets in Spanish alternative management will fall to about EUR940m, which represents a contraction of 40% compared with its levels at the end of July 2008, Funds People reports. For funds of funds, the decline measures 45%, to EUR560m (excluding funds in the process of liquidation), while for single hedge funds, the decline is 30% to EUR380m.

BNP Paribas Investment Partners has announced the appointment of Philippe Marchessaux, director of marketing, FundQuest, and wealth management, and Pascal Biville, COO and head of financial management, human resources, operations and IT, as deputy CEOs under Gilles Glicenstein, director and CEO. BNPP IP says the appointments have the objective of strengthening management, in order to ?reinforce the development of the various management firms that compose BNPP IP, consolidate expertise, and strengthen services to BNPP IP clients.?The new management team will continue to report to the executive committee, led by Glicenstein, and composed of Biville, Vincent Camerlynck, Christian Dargnat, Guy de Froment, Marchessaux, Chantal Mazzacurati and Michel Anastassiades (director of FundQuest), who joins the executive board.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Contrafund (USD45.9bn), reopened in mid-December by Fidelity Investments, after being closed to new investors since April 2006, suffered losses of 37.2% last year, which corresponds to roughly the same amount as the S&P 500 lost in the same time, but outperforms other Fidelity heavyweight products, such as the Magellan Fund and the Growth & Income Portfolio. The manager, Will Danoff, admits that he kept his bets on stocks such as Google, Apple, and RIM for too long. However, he correctly adopted an underweight position on IT shares, and performance was considerably improved by a strong exposure to Genetech.

The Obama administration is abandoning its idea of creating a class of ?bad banks,? since it would be the only investor left to buy up toxic assets, and would overpay for them with taxpayers’ money, the Wall Street Journal reports. According to sources close to the government, plans are now developing more in the direction of a public-private partnership, which would create several funds managed by private managers, who would agree to invest in the funds themselves, and which would be supported jointly by part of the USD700bn bailout plan, the Fed, and an issue of government-guaranteed shares. Other investors such as pension funds would also be allowed to participate in the funds, and the government would work to encourage subscriptions and to minimise risk for retail investors.

Ralph Janvey, the administrator designated to liquidate the assets of Sir Allen Stanford, announced on Monday that he would probably only recuperate a few hundreds of millions of US dollars for investors, instead of the billions which he had originally hoped to recover, due to the ?appalling? condition of the financial empire built by the Texan businessman, the Financial Times reports. The announcement comes as a Federal judge has extended a freeze on Stanford investors’ accounts for a further 10 days.

In a new version of its charges against the Texan billionaire Sir Allen Stanford, the SEC has called the fraud a ?gigantic Ponzi scheme,? Les Echos reports. The newspaper explains that this type of fraud involves paying off existing investors in the scheme with money from incoming investors. An investigation by the US authorities has implicated Stanford and his CFO, James M. Davis. The two men are accused of skimming off billions of dollars and falsifying the accounts of Stanford International Bank (SIB), the newspaper reports.

Advanced Capital is launching a private equity fund of funds specialised in real estate, entitled AC Real Estate Global Opportunity fund, which will have EUR300m in capital, Il Sole - 24 Ore reports. The fund will be advised by Rèal Desrochers, recently mandated to manage alternative investments for the pension fund CalSTRS, and will be suppoerted by Mediobanca. Seth Lieberman, formerly of UBS, will be head of real estate.