The global investor confidence index published by State Street Associates came out at 99.3 points in December, slightly down, by 0.1 points, from a corrected level of 99.4 in November. In North America, the investor confidence index fell 2.0 points, to 96.4, compared with a corrected level of 98.5 in November, while in Asia, the regional index fell 1.0 points to 93.7, from 94.7 (corrected level) the previous month. Institutional investors in Europe have escaped the trend, with the regional index indicating an increase of 0.6 points to 102.2 from a corrected level of 101.6 in November. “By region, European investors are more optimistic than their counterparts in North America and Asia, for the second consecutive month,” says M. O’Connell, author of the index. “This trend contrasts with the first quarter of the year, when European investors were most pessimistic. This does not necessarily mean that outlooks for the region itself have improved, but the trend suggests that European institutions are more prepared to make allocations to equities, in Europe and elsewhere, which they were not at the beginning of the year.”
This year, gold may have gained 12% in value, but at the same time, shares in gold mines have lost nearly 16%, the Wall Street Journal reports. Some of the smallest actors in the gold mining industry have even lost as much as 40%, on the basis of returns on ETFs dedicated to gold mining shares. These results have caught some of the biggest investors on Wall Street by surprise, including Jahn Paulson, George Soros, David Einhorn, Seth Klarman and Thomas Kaplan, who had all placed smaller or larger bets on gold mining, sometimes even at the expense of investing directly in the metal.
The German private bank Berenberg has recently announced that its asset management activities will now be brought together in a single entity. Previously, asset management had been divided into two units: the affiliate Berenberg LuxInvest, and asset management at the parent company Berenberg Bank. The bank claims that uniting asset management in a single entity will make it more effective and bring growth. Clients of the German private bank include institutional and retail investors.
In Germany, the vast majority of independent fund managers are not despairing over the state of the stock markets. They are even predicting significant growth for the DAX index in 2012, according to a survey by DAB Bank of more than 50 experts. The survey finds that 85% of respondents are predicting growth for the DAX next year. To be extact, 54% predict that the index will rise above 7,000 points, while 15% even predict that the DAX will rise above 8,000. The average projection is of the DAX rising to 6,860 by the end of 2012, which implies growth of about 17% over its current levels. For bonds, three out of four experts recommend German government bonds, while 39% prefer local SMEs. Only 18% of respondents prefer Federal government bonds, while 13% prefer emerging market debt. However, managers are divided over outlooks for the price of gold, with 47% expecting further increased, whlie 38% predict that the metal will fall below USD1,500 per ounce.
The French financial market regulator, the Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF), is preparing to hand the preparatory work to transpose the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID) into national law to a market committee including all asset management participants, the AMF says in the most recent edition of its financial regulation letter (December 2011). The committee will be co-chaired by two members of the College of the AMF, Monique Cohen and Jean-Luc Enguehard, and will aim to set up the steering principles for the transposition and the strategic areas which the AMF and/or other French authorities may act on to improve the competitiveness of innovative management. With this in mind, the committee is planning to create four thematic groups which will work on related topics, including 1) the establishment of a secure framework to balance investor protection with competitiveness of the market in innovative management, 2) new challenges arising from the directive which could call the French model into question, 3) depositories, and 4) making the directive compatible with other directives applicable to asset management. On the basis of the work of the different groups, the market committee will compose a report which will be submitted to consultation in May 2012. The actual work of transposing the directive may then begin from June 2012 onwards. The general direction of the Treasury would then have one year to propose legislative and regulatory modifications. The AMF, for its part, may introduce modifications to its own general rules to introduce the necessary instructions by the deadline to transpose the directive (22 July 2013).
18 months after its passage, the Dodd-Frank law is hitting snags in being applied. Barely one quarter of the rules laid out in the legislation have been finalised, the Washington Post reports. According to the most recent monthly report by the law firm Davis Polk, regulators on 1 December published 154 proposed regulations, and finalised 74, but were also unable to meet the deadline for 200 texts.
BlackRock a récemment recruté Jeffrey Rosenberg au poste de chief investment strategist pour le fixed income. Sa mission consistera à renforcer la gamme dédiée aux investisseurs particuliers, notamment aux Etats-Unis. L’intéressé était auparavant head of global credit strategy research à Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
La banque privée allemande Berenberg a récemment annoncé que ses activité de gestion d’actifs seraient désormais réunies dans une seule entité. Jusqu'à présent, l’asset management était séparé en deux pôles : la filiale Berenberg LuxInvest et la gestion d’actifs au sein de la maison mère Berenberg Bank. La banque se promet grâce au regroupement de la gestion d’actifs dans une seule entité davantage d’efficacité et de croissance. Les clients de la banque privée allemande sont autant des institutionnels que des particuliers.
Le groupe de capital investissement Carlyle a rendu un montant record de 15 milliards de dollars aux investisseurs sur les neuf premiers mois de l’année, rapporte le Financial Times. Un montant équivalent aux remboursements réalisés par TPG (4 milliards de dollars),Blackstone (6 milliards de dollars) et KKR (5 milliards de dollars).Les actifs sous gestion de Carlyle ont néanmoins progressé de 107 milliards fin 2010 à environ 148 milliards de dollars grâce notamment à des acquisitions.
Areva et le Fonds stratégique d’investissement (FSI) ont annoncé le 27 décembre dans un bref communiqué «être entrés en négociations exclusives au titre de la cession de la participation d’Areva dans Eramet». Areva, qui détient 26% du capital d’Eramet, avait indiqué courant décembre vouloir céder pour plus de 1,2 milliard d’euros d’actifs, dans le cadre d’un plan de redressement, pour rétablir ses comptes. Le FSI, qui avait déjà manifesté son intérêt pour cette participation, avait déclaré dans la foulée avoir repris les discussions avec le groupe nucléaire.
La confiance du consommateur américain a bondi plus que prévu en décembre pour atteindre un plus haut de huit mois, les ménages étant un peu moins inquiets quant aux perspectives d’emploi et de revenu. L’indice du Conference Board est ressorti à 64,5 contre 55,2 en novembre. Il est au plus haut depuis avril et dépasse le consensus qui le donnait à 58,3.
Le président américain, Barack Obama, prévoit de nommer deux anciens responsables du Trésor, Jerome Powell et Jeremy Stein, au conseil de la Réserve fédérale. Le premier a été sous-secrétaire d’Etat sous l’ère George W. Bush, tandis que le second a conseillé l’administration actuelle.
Les membres du parti Nouvelle Démocratie (ND) ont apparemment renoncé à leur exigence d'élections législatives anticipées dès le 19 février prochain, ce qui laisserait quelques semaines supplémentaires au Premier ministre, Lucas Papadémos, pour mettre en œuvre les réformes.
La Chine ne manipule pas sa monnaie, mais elle devrait accélérer la réforme de la convertibilité du yuan, estime le Trésor américain dans son rapport semestriel. «Le Trésor va surveiller étroitement le rythme de l’appréciation et faire campagne en faveur de réformes qui donneront (au yuan) une plus grande flexibilité, une égalité de traitement et une croissance tournée vers la demande intérieure», indique le rapport.
Une source du ministère des Finances cité par le Shanghai Securities Journal révèle que le déficit public de la Chine va diminuer en 2012. Les dépenses budgétaires devraient augmenter de 11% à 11.100 milliards de yuans (1.338 milliards d’euros) en 2012, alors que les recettes augmenteront de 9%, impliquant un déficit de 800 milliards de yuans, soit 50 milliards de moins que le déficit attendu cette année.
D’après les chiffres officiels publiés hier, les mises en chantier de logements neufs en France ont augmenté de 20,2% sur un an à fin novembre, à 405.860, et de 16,5% sur trois mois, à 115.627. Le nombre de permis de construire délivrés pour des logements a lui augmenté de 16,4% sur 12 mois, à 521.338, et de 27% sur trois mois, à 144.336.
Après quatre ans de récession, les magasins en Grèce ont connu leur pire Noël depuis des décennies avec des ventes en baisse de 30% par rapport à l’année passée, selon la fédération du commerce de détail ESEE. Cette forte baisse des ventes a eu lieu malgré d’importantes réductions proposées par les magasins à l’approche de Noël.
Le gouvernement français espère mettre en œuvre des mesures sur l’activité partielle et les «pactes compétitivité emploi» dans les entreprises d’ici à l'élection présidentielle de 2012 afin de lutter contre la hausse du chômage, a déclaré hier le ministre du Travail, Xavier Bertrand.
Le Trésor italien, qui prévoit d'émettre un montant brut de 450 milliards d’euros l’an prochain, compte être très actif sur les marchés monétaires et sur la dette à court terme. Il se dit ainsi prêt à conduire des émissions non planifiées. Pour la dernière adjudication de l’année, Rome espère placer demain jusqu'à 8,5 milliards d’euros de titres longs.
The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority in mid-week announced that it has issued a USD3m fine to Barclays Capital Inc for modifying data concerning issues of Residential Subprime Mortgage Securitizations (RMBS). Issuers of subprime RMBS are required to disclose information about the track records of securitizations containing mortgages offered to investors, such as RMBS. Default rates in particular are important information for investors in evaluating the value of the RMBS and determining future returns. The FINRA found that from March 2007 to December 2010, Barclays Capital modified the default rates for three subprime RMBS which it sold subscriptions to and sold. The incorrect data published on the Barclays website was identified as historic data for five subsequent investments in RMBS. The errors contained in the information was significant enough to affect investor valuations. To settle the case, Barclays neither admitted nor denied the accusations, but did not obstruct the investigation, FINRA says.
France Telecom is reportedly about to sell off its Swiss activities to the private equity group Apax Partners for a total of over EUR1.5bn, the Financial Times reports. Apax is reported to have entered exclusive talks with the French telecoms operator to hash out the terms of a final agreement for the operation to acquire Orange Switzerland.
The Pontiac General Employees Retirement System, a Michigan pension fund, has filed lawsuits against the Japanese insurer Tokio Marine for failure to respect fiduciary commitments in its acquisition of Delphi Financial, the Financial Times reports. Tokio Marine on 21 December announced its acquisition of Delphi Financial for USD2.7bn. Delphi agreed to pay holders of B-class shares an additional USD9 per share above the price paid to A-class shareholders, which it is claimed runs against the Delphi charter, which stipulates that sharesholders in the two classes should be treated equally in the event of a takeover.
Agefi reports that the European sovereign debt crisis may work to the advantage of Islamic finance. According to statistics from Bloomberg, bond issues compatible with Sharia law (sukuks) in the Persian Gulf have reached four-year record levels, at USD7.3bn, a 62% increase in one year. In the same period, non-Islamic debt issues dell 27% year on year in the six Gulf countries (the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, and Kuwait). The European debt crisis is driving issuers to seek alternative sources of financing, the newspaper notes.
SIX Exchange Regulation has issued a warning to Credit Suisse Group SA for violating its disclosure requirements in relation to transactions by management. The violation was in connection with a management transaction involving 1,400 nominative shares that the firm declared and published with a delay of 18 trading days. According to SIX Exchange Regulation, at the time when Credit Suisse Group SA submitted a declaration of the operation, the transaction had already been executed by an internal department. The firm could have, and was required to comply with market regulations that stipulate that the transaction must be declared and published within three trading days, a statement says. The infraction has been qualified as minor; therefore, SIX Exchange Regulation has opted to issue Credit Suisse SA with a warning.
According to information obtained by the Luxembourg financial sector surveillance commission (CSSF), the entity known as Forest4YOU Capital S.A. has been offering those it contacts several types of investments which are said to be guaranteed by a bank entitled C.I.B. Capital Investment Bank S.A. The CSSF informs the public that neither Forest4YOU Capital S.A., noe C.I.B. Capital Investment Bank S.A. has the necessary licenses to provide financial services in or from Luxembourg. Forest4YOU Capital S.A. claims to be located at the address 5, rue Jean Monnet, L-2180 Luxembourg (website: www.forest4you.eu).