15/09/2009
Optimism returns at multi-management firms
Optimism has returned to multi-management firms, with the confidence index at 0.61, a level not seen since mid-2007, according to the most recent edition of a quarterly survey by Seeds Finance of managers of funds of hedge funds (Consensus Hedge Fund, Q2 2009, no. 30). “The mood is optimistic, but not euphoric,” says Seeds Finance, as this level corresponds to the average observed since the creation of the indicator in 2003, while the highest level observed was in late 2006-early 2007. Managers remain prudent, but the return of their appetite for risk is revealing itself, and is also resulting in an increasingly marked regain of interest in directional bets, with a bias towards long/short equity strategies, which now represent 20% of portfolios. Average gross exposure to this strategy is up strongly to 116% after record lows at the end of last year. At 10%, allocation to emerging markets equities remains low, but more than 40% of managers are planning to increase the weight of this region. The Seeds Finance survey also finds that there has been a net regain of interest in arbitrage strategies, to take advantage of a return of liquidity, as well as in credit arbitrage and event-driven distressed. “Managers are cautiously repositioning themselves on these strategies, fearing a disappearance of liquidity late this year,” Seeds Finance explains. However, long term CTAs, whose performance has been poor since the beginning of the year, are no longer popular with managers.
