Le rapport semestriel sur les changes met en garde la BoJ contre un excès d'assouplissement et fustige les énormes excédents courants de l'Allemagne

L’indice consolide vraisemblablement le rebond sur les 4.100 points avant de viser à nouveau les 4.500 points

La majorité des gérants sont à surpondérer en novembre alors que le millésime 2013 s'annonce inespéré pour le crédit corporate

Les gestions ont relevé de 2,3 à 2,5% leurs prévisions sur les indices occidentaux, qui sont attendus en rebond de seulement 4 à 6% dans un an

Bertrand Hau, Directeur général adjoint et directeur financier et comptable d’Ageas France à la rédaction de www.institinvest.com : Nous avons l’intention d’augmenter la part des actions dans notre portefeuille d’actifs, de 1% ou 2%, dans les prochains mois ». Ageas va donc continuer à investir dans des fonds ouverts d’actions de la zone euro. Dans ce domaine, elle travaille déjà avec des sociétés de gestion comme Rothschild & Cie et Avenir Finance. « Nous investissons notamment dans des fonds diversifiés flexibles proposés par Avenir Finance Investment Management (AFIM), indique le directeur financier. Nous avons un lien particulier avec ce groupe puisque nous sommes actionnaires d’une de ses filiales, Sicavonline, et nous avons en outre un accord de distribution pour les produits d'épargne hors assurance-vie ». Ageas ne détient pas de titres en direct. En raison des ratios d’emprise, elle investit dans des fonds affichant au moins 10 millions d’euros d’encours. Certes, elle a fait une exception pour Avenir Finance mais, dans ce cas, son investissement s’apparentait à du « seed money ». « Nos investissements dans les actions répondent à la mise en avant de thématiques, précise Bertrand Hau Actuellement, nous nous intéressons aux fonds Value de la zone euro. De manière générale, le suivi des différents fonds disponibles sur le marché est facilité par le fait que nous travaillons avec beaucoup de sociétés de gestion dans le cadre de nos UC ».

La Commission de réglementation boursière chinoise (CSRC) va mettre en place de nouvelles règles afin de s’assurer que les investisseurs individuels puissent disposer d’une meilleure qualité d’information sur les sociétés cotées, rapporte le quotidien en se référant à des propos tenus par Ouyang Zehua, membre du CSRC.

Vincent Falantin, directeur de la stratégie d’investissement d’Allianz France à la rédaction de www.institinvest.com : Certaines classes d’actifs vont disparaître du portefeuille comme les hedge funds. Pour des raisons de coût en capital et de rendement attendu, nous sommes en train de réduire cette poche à zéro. Elle ne représente déjà plus que 0,5% des encours.

Le fournisseur d’indices S&P Dow Jones a dégradé la Grèce dans la catégorie des marchés émergents, alors que le pays figurait jusqu'à présent parmi les marchés développés, selon un communiqué envoyé le 31 octobre. Raisons invoquées: la contraction croissante de la taille du marché actions grec, les restrictions au prêt-emprunt de titres, ou encore la notation insuffisante du souverain (B-) contre un minimum requis de BB+.

BNP Paribas, qui a publié jeudi un résultat net de près de 1,4 milliard d’euros au troisième trimestre, a connu une décollecte de 3,2 milliards d’euros sur la période dans son pôle Investment Solutions. Si la gestion de fortune, l’assurance et la gestion immobilière enregistrent des flux nets, la division gestion d’actifs a pâti une nouvelle fois de retraits, à hauteur de 5,6 milliards d’euros, qui ont conduit à une baisse de ses encours, de 375 milliards fin juin à 368 milliards fin septembre. Investment Solutions gère au total 874 milliards d’euros d’encours, en légère hausse par rapport à fin juin (+0,5%) mais en baisse de 1,4% sur un an.

L’Agence France Trésor annonce jeudi dans un communiqué la création de l’OAT 2,25% 25 mai 2024. Cette ligne sera adjugée pour la première fois le jeudi 7 novembre.

L'évolution de l’indice harmonisé des prix en zone euro a largement raté le consensus, avec une hausse annuelle de 0,7% estimée en octobre par Eurostat, contre 1,1% en septembre et un consensus des économistes qui attendait le même chiffre de 1,1% pour ce mois-ci. La baisse des prix de l'énergie et la moindre progression des prix alimentaires expliquent en partie ce décrochage, mais l’inflation core est tombée elle aussi de 1,0% à 0,8%, son plus faible niveau depuis février 2010. L’euro, qui avait déjà reculé face au dollar après le communiqué de la Fed mercredi soir, a baissé à 1,366 après la publication des statistiques d’Eurostat, les marchés semblant anticiper une réaction au moins verbale de la BCE lors de sa prochaine réunion le 7 novembre. Les économistes de BNP Paribas ont d’ailleurs revu leurs perspectives jeudi, avec une baisse des taux de 25 points de base désormais attendue pour décembre.

La BCE, la Fed, la Banque d’Angleterre, la Banque du Japon, la Banque nationale de Suisse et la Banque du Canada ont annoncé jeudi que les lignes bilatérales de swaps mises en place depuis le début de la crise financière deviendraient permanentes et non plus temporaires. Ces lignes permettent aux banques centrales de fournir à leur système bancaire des devises.

Funds People reports that the independent boutique EDM Gestión (EUR1.55bn) has recruited Teresa Watkins as manager-analyst. She had worked at Comgest since 2003.

With more than USD4trn in outstanding debt, including non-Euroclear issues, the local currency non-sovereign market is larger than the local currency sovereign market : Bank of America Merrill Lynch thus has developed a new range of four indices designed to track the performance of local currency non-sovereign emerging markets fixed rate debt, according to a press release dated October, 30th.The new series includes four flagship indices: • the BofA Merrill Lynch Broad Local Emerging Markets Non-sovereign Index (ticker LCCB), the broadest measure of the local currency emerging markets non-sovereign debt markets. LCCB constituents are cap-weighted with no caps on country or issuer exposures,• the BofA Merrill Lynch Diversified Broad Local Emerging Markets Non-sovereign Index (LCCD), a more liquid, diversified version of LCCB. There are larger minimum bond sizes in addition to caps on country and issuer exposures, • the BofA Merrill Lynch Local Emerging Markets Non-sovereign Index (LOCM), the same as LCCB but excludes Sukuks. LOCM constituents are cap-weighted with no caps on country or issuer exposures, and• the BofA Merrill Lynch Diversified Local Emerging Markets Non-sovereign Index (LOCL), a more liquid, diversified version of LOCM. There are larger minimum bond sizes in addition to caps on country and issuer exposures.All four indices focus solely on securities that settle on Euroclear. .Les quatre indices couvrent uniquement des valeurs qui peuvent être compensées sur Euroclear.

In its report on third quarter published on 30 October, Moody’s has announced that assets in money market funds domiciled in the United States increased by 4.3%, to a total of USD667bn as of 30 September, compared with USD640bn as of the end of June. These funds increased their exposure to Swedish banks by 27% (USD47bn compared with USD37bn), and to French banks by 16% (USD50bn comapred with USD43bn).Exposure of European money market funds to financial institutions remained stable at EUR28.1bn, but allocation to French banks rose 14% to EUR9.4bn, while the allocation to Swedish banks was down 20%, to EUR5bn.

The State Street Investor Confidence Index released by State Street Global Exchange fell to 95.7 in October, down 5.6 points from September’s revised reading of 101.3.The decline was driven by sentiment in North America, which fell substantially by 17.8 points, pushing the North American ICI well into pessimistic territory at 86.5.By contrast, confidence improved substantially among European institutional investors, reflected in a 10.2 point increase in the European ICI to 111.9. Asian investors stayed their course, and as a result the Asian ICI saw only a modest change, rising 0.9 points to finish at 96.2.“The fiscal showdown in the US clearly took the wind from the sails of institutional investors, pushing the Global ICI into negative territory for the first time since May of this year,” commented Paul O’Connell, who contributed to the development of the index. “Notwithstanding the 11th hour resolution of the immediate crisis, investors are aware that the long-term fiscal policy of the US remains to be negotiated, and that the impact of such negotiations on growth and confidence is yet to be seen.”“The fact that the North American ICI posted a record fall in the same month that the European ICI posted its largest gain in almost three years tells you all you need to know about how policy perceptions are changing between the two areas,” added Michael Metcalfe, head of cross strategy research at State Street Global Markets. “With European confidence at its highest level since July 2007, investors hope that the worst of the Eurozone crisis is past. The US crisis of confidence, in contrast, may just be the beginning, unless policy uncertainty is reduced.”

After five years of financial crisis, most investors in the United States and more generally worldwide are hesitating to take risks, and are maintaining significant allocations to investments with low returns, according to the first global BlackRock study of investor sentiment (“Global Investor Pulse Survey”).Despite the gains which have propelled some stock markets to all-time highs, most investors are not prepared to take risks to improve the performance of their portfolios, a survey of 17,567 investors, including 4,000 US investors, in all categories, finds, including the most high net worth investors, who are in no hurry to reduce their cash allocations either.In the United States, investors in all categories are holding 48% of their investable assets in cash, with 18% in equities and 7% in bonds. The highest allocations to equities are in Hong Kong and Taiwan.

Assets under management at the bank Vontobel totalled CHF160.4bn as of the end of September 2013, virtually unchanged compared with the end of June (CHF160.2bn), according to figures released on 30 October by the private bank.The Asset Management segment has posted a “constant” gross margin of 52 basis points, as well as “potential for gain which remains solid.” Net inflows have fallen, in line with the predictions of the bank, which did not provide figures.Measures engaged to increase the profitability of Private Banking are bearing fruit, both in terms of cost and returns, the bank also states. The bank now plans to concentrate on clearly-defined client segments. The growth of profits in this segment observed in first half has continued. Vontobel has continued to develop its activities with US private clients. Vontobel Swiss Wealth Advisors (VSWA), the entity founded in 2010, has in the past few weeks opened offices in Dallas and Geneva.A reshuffle of cross-border activities has led to costs of about CHF8bn, related largely to the abandonment of Private Banking activities in Austria, Italy and Dubai in second half. The renorganization of Private Banking sites is now complete, Vontobel states.

Credit Suisse on 30 October announced the introduction of its real estate fund Real Estate Fund Green Property (REF Green Property) on the SIX Swiss Exchange from 31 October. The financial market surveillance authority (Finma) has granted approval for the operation, announced on 28 May this year.The listing opens the open-ended real estate fund, and also makes it available to non-qualified investors, the bank says in a statement.

BlackRock has let the deadline which had been set for it by BaFin pass without responding to indicate the financial resources it would be prepared to make available if BHF-Bank were faced with a crisis. As a result, the US asset management firm is pulling out of the consortium led by Kleinwort Benson Group Ltd (KBG), an affiliate of RHJ International (RHJI), to acquire the German private bank from Deutsche Bank for EUR354m, of which EUR322m would be in cash and 9% in shares in RHJ International, KBG says in a statement released on 30 October. BlackRock was supposed to contribute to the deal for a total of EUR50m.As a result, the terms of the KBG capital increase have been modified, and RHJI will retain a 65% stake instead of 60%, while the remaining 35% will be distributed between the three remaining partners, Fosun Group, AQTON SE (a portfolio firm belonging to Stefan Quandt) and various companies of Timothy C. Collins.Deutsche Bank has been seeking to sell BHF-Bank, which had been part of the Sal. Oppenheim group, for three years. Initially, Deutsche Bank had been expecting to make about EUR500m on it.

Funds domiciled in Northern Europe (Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Finland) have ongoing charges of 0.98% on average, compared with 1.09% for Europe excluding the Scandinavian countries and 1.08% for Europe as a whole, according to a Morningstar study of fees for Scandinavian funds.The least costly funds are the ones based in Norway (0.72%), followed by funds from Sweden (1.03%), funds from Denmark (1.07%) and funds from Finland (1.07%).In terms of equity funds, the winner is Swedish funds, with 1.09%, followed by Norwegian funds (1.11%), Danish funds (1.45%) and Finnish funds (1.60%).

For EUR83m, Deka Immobilien has sold the Kurfürstendamm 212-214 complex to the real estate firm Becker & Kries, for a capital gain. The complex, with 15,200 square metres (retail, offices, housing) had been in the portfolio of the open-ended real estate fund Deka-ImmobilienEuropa (DE0009809566).The sale additionally allows for the porfolio to be further «rejuvenated».

Lyxor on Wednesday launched a new ETF on the Milan stock exchange, the Lyxor UCITS ETF S&P 500 Daily Hedged, a product offering exposure to the major equity index in the United States, with a hedge for euro/dollar currency risks on a daily basis, Bluerating reports. The ETF has a TER of 0.15%.

UBS Global Asset Management has launched three ETFs on the Milan Stock Exchange which allow for exposure to the equity markets of Japan, the United Kingdom and Canada, with hedging for currency risks, Bluerating repors. The products have been listed on the ETFPlus segment since 28 October. They are the UBS ETF - MSCI Japan 100% hedged to EUR UCITS ETF (annual TER of 0.45%), UBS ETF - MSCI United Kingdom 100% hedged to EUR UCITS ETF (annual TER of 0.30%) and UBS ETF - MSCI Canada 100% hedged to EUR UCITS ETF (annual TER of 0.43%).

The hedge funds company D.E. Shaw, some of whose products are reported to have recently closed their doors to new clients (see Newsmanagers of 8 October 2013), is planning to launch two new funds, Institutional Investor Alpha reports, on the basis of license applications. The two new products are entitled D.E. Shaw Alkali Fund II and D.E. Shaw Alkali International Fund II. The minimal investment is USD1m. The hedge fund did not wish to comment on the reports in Institutional Investor.

Exane Asset Management in May discreetly launched a long/short global equity fund, Exane Funds 1 – Exane Overdrive, Citywire Global reveals. A spokesperson explains that the launch was not subject to any announcements, in order to allow assets to be raised in peace and to establish a track record. The strategy, based in Luxembourg, will be co-managed by Eric Lauri and Muriel D’Ambrosio.

With the launch of four short and ultra-short duration bond ETFs, registered in Ireland and based on optimised physical replication, iShares on 30 October responded to demand from European investors seeking to reduce the risk of rising interest rates on developed markets, while putting their liquidity to work.This is particularly true of the iShares Euro Ultrashort Bond UCITS and iShares $ Ultrashort Bond UCITS, which are the first passive ETFs of this type in Europe, and which will replicate Markit iBoxx Liquid Ultrashort indices launched recently. The funds will invest largely in fixed or variable rate investment-grade corporate bonds, denominated in euros and US dollars, respectively, with the maturity of the fixed rate type bonds set between zero and one year, and that for variable rate bonds between zero and three years.For their part, the ETF iShares $ Short Duration Corporate Bond UCITS and iShares $ Short Duration High Yield Corporate Bond UCITS will invest respectively in corporate bonds denominated in investment grade collars and bonds with a speculative rating. In order to be eligible for the fund, bonds needs to have a maturity of less than or equal to five years, with the average duration for the funds coming to between two and three years.CharacteristicsName: iShares $ Short Duration Corporate Bond UCITS ETFTicker: SDIGISIN code: IE00BCRY5Y77Dutation of the index: 2.49 yearsPerformance of the index: 1.76%Total expense ratio: 0.20%Name: iShares $ Short Duration High Yield Corporate Bond UCITS ETFTicker: SDHYISIN code: IE00BCRY6003Duration of the index: 2.07 yearsPerformance of the index: 5.01%Total expense ratio: 0.45%Name: iShares Euro Ultrashort Bond UCITS ETF Ticker: ERNEISIN code: IE00BCRY6557Duration of the index: 0.30 yearsPerformance of the index: 0.69%Total expense ratio: 0.20%Name: iShares $ Ultrashort Bond UCITS ETFTicker: ERNDISIN code: IE00BCRY6227Duration of the index: 0.33 yearsPerformance of the index: 0.72%Total expense ratio: 0.20%

Guggenheim Investments, which includes the management and advising activities of Guggenheim Partners, has recruited Joseph Burschinger as senior managing director, who will serve in the newly-created position of chief risk officer.Burschinger previously worked at TCW in Los Angeles, most recently as executive vice president and chief risk officer.In his new role, Burschinger will concentrate on the management of portfolio risks in order to better manage investment objectives. He will also work with portfolio managers to help them better identify, evaluate, monitor and manage all types of risk.

Virginie Maisonneuve, head of global & international equities at Schroder Investment Management, has been recruited as managing director, global head of equities & portfolio manager at Pimco, which she will officially join in January 2014. She will continue to be based in London, a statement from the US asset management firm owned by the Allianz group states.In her new role, she will be responsible for the active management of equity portfolios and will contribute to the design as well as the deployment of new equity and asset allocation strategies.Maisonneuve will take over the role of Marc Seidner , who has been appointed as interim head of global equities, following the resignation of Neel Kashkari (see Newsmanagers of 8 February).At Schroders, Maisonneuve will be replaced by her deputy, Simon Webber, who becomes lead portfolio manager for global and international equities. Peter Harrison, global head of equities, becomes director of the team.

In third quarter 2013, the asset management line at BNP Paribas (part of the Investment Solutions unit) has posted net redemptions of EUR5.6bn, the bank has announced as part of its financial results. These outflows, which affected bond funds in particular, remain lower than those posted in second quarter 2013 (-EUR15.4bn), and in third quarter 2012 (-EUR7.6bn).As at 30 September, assets under management in asset management totalled EUR368bn, down 1.4% compared with EUR408bn one year previously, but up 0.5% compared with their levels as of the end of June 2013.The BNP Paribas group also notes that “the adaptation of the business portfolio as part of the Asset Management business development plan had a negative impact to the tune of 3.7 billion euros.”Assets under management totalled 874 billion euros as at 30 September 2013, down by 1.4% compared to 30 September 2012 but stable compared to the level as at 30 June 2013, after outflows of EUR3.2bn. Investment Solutions’ revenues, which totalled 1,543 million euros, were up 5.0% compared to the third quarter 2012. In the first nine months of 2013, revenues from Investment Solutions are up 2.2% compared with the first nine months of 2012.